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The World
Moderna announced its Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection, sending the Dow to a fresh record high. There were 95 cases of infection among patients who received placebo — but only five infections in patients who received Moderna’s vaccine, mRNA-1273. There were 11 cases of severe disease, all of them in the placebo group. Moderna says that it will be able to produce 20 million doses — earmarked for the U.S. — by the end of the year, as the EU eyes COVID vaccine deal with Moderna at less than $25 per dose. Pfizer is making 50 million doses available worldwide in the same timeframe. (STAT News, BBC News, Reuters, MIT Technology Review)
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced wide-ranging new restrictions limiting gatherings at high schools, colleges and restaurants to combat what she described as the "worst moment" yet in the COVID-19 pandemic. Washington Gov. Inslee also ordered sweeping restrictions on indoor gatherings, restaurants, bars, gyms — the strictest order since March. New Mexico will shutdown indoor malls, outdoor recreational facilities, state museums. In the UK, Boris Johnson and a group of Tory MPs are self-isolating after a 10 Downing St. event. In Sydney, drones are patrolling beaches to ensure Covid safety protocols, while Greece limited public gatherings to less than four people. Some poll workers who came in contact with voters on Election Day have tested positive, including more than two dozen in Missouri and cases in New York, Iowa, Indiana and Virginia. Elon Musk said on Saturday he “most likely” has a moderate case of Covid-19, and Walmart will start counting customers again as coronavirus cases reach record levels. (Detroit News, Seattle Times, KOAT, The Guardian, Bloomberg, Politico, CNBC, CNN)
Nearly 2 in 5 Americans will likely attend large holiday gatherings, and a third will not ask guests to wear masks. What’s the actual risk? This helpful dashboard shows estimated odds that a member of your holiday party will bring the virus to dinner: There’s a 5% chance that someone at a party of 20 in Maine, but a gathering of just 10 people in the hot spot of Sioux Falls, SD brings a 67% chance. (Ohio State University poll, Georgia Tech map, MIT Technology Review)
Independent macroeconomists remain divided on the U.S. outlook: Morgan Stanley economists see momentum sustaining the recovery “through a difficult winter, lifting GDP growth” to 6% in 2021. In their best-case scenario, the bank’s team expects “the rising threat of COVID-19 to dampen growth through the first months of 2021, followed by further fiscal support from the prospective new administration in reaction to the rise in hospitalization.” Pantheon takes a grimmer view: Shutdown measures now taking hold will “exact a real cost on the economy,” with restaurants, for one, experiencing a “rout” and airline travel “likely to plummet once Thanksgiving is over.” (Finance 202)
The Japanese economy expanded at its fastest pace in at least 40 years in 3Q20 as private consumption and exports improved, expanding 5% from the previous quarter — the first growth in four quarters and the biggest expansion since 1980. However, its growth outlook remains weak (Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asian Review)
Why the RCEP trade deal could strengthen China’s hand in Asia: The U.S. has not signed the free-trade pact that analysts say is likely to give Beijing more influence over global trade and strengthen ties with neighbors. Meanwhile, Asian economies are emerging as clear winners in the race to a full recovery. China remains on track to grow nearly 2% this year, the most of any major economy, while the world is expected to contract by 4.4% and the U.S. by 4.3%. Vietnam is expected to grow 1.6%, Taiwan is expected to be flat from a year earlier and South Korea is forecast to contract 1.9%. (South China Morning Post, Wall Street Journal)
Hungary and Poland blocked the adoption of the 2021-2027 EU budget and recovery fund because the budget law included a clause which makes access to money conditional on respecting the rule of law. In Peru, interim president Manuel Merino resigned after only 5 days on the job and a day after two people died during protests against his government. (Reuters, BBC News)
Support for stricter U.S. gun laws hit its lowest level since 2016: 57% in the U.S. who call for stricter laws marks a seven-percentage-point decline since last year. 34% of U.S. adults prefer that gun laws be kept as they are now, while 9% would like them to be less strict. (Gallup)
Biden’s election makes the U.S. more popular in Europe and less popular in China and Russia. America’s net favorability improved by 22 points on average among adults in five European countries. (Morning Consult)
Economy
CEO confidence in the future of the economy fell sharply in November following the Biden election and Covid increase, even as a majority of CEOs still predict their firms will see improvements in their finances in the months to come. Confidence in the current business environment little changed since last month, up only 1 percent from October. The 12 month outlook, however, fell 6.4 percent this month — the largest single-month declines of the past 5 years. (Chief Executive)
Airbnb will flip its IPO filing today, setting itself up to go public before year-end. Airbnb "hosts" will not be given cash bonuses to buy shares. This is partially for regulatory reasons, but more because a similar effort by Uber went so poorly. Separately, Airbnb says it turned away 1.4 million people who refused to sign its no-bigotry agreement. (Axios, Gizmodo)
The pandemic’s disruptions have transformed how American consumers behave by accelerating their embrace of digital commerce, and the changes are likely to prove permanent. McKinsey found that about three out of four people have tried a new shopping method due to the coronavirus and that more than half of all consumers intend to continue using curbside pickup and grocery-delivery services after the pandemic is over. Nearly 70% of consumers intend to continue buying online for store pickup. The pandemic collapsed into three months a process of adopting e-commerce that otherwise would have taken 10 years in the U.S. (Wall Street Journal)
Oxbridge is losing its grip on FTSE 100 boardrooms: One in ten chief executives of Britain’s 100 largest listed companies attended Oxford or Cambridge universities, down from 23% a decade ago, while eight in ten FTSE 100 directors now come from educational backgrounds outside of the global top 30 universities. (The Times)
Nearly 2 out of 3 workers over the age of 45 have seen or experienced age discrimination on the job, according to the AARP. A study in 2019 reported that 80% of older workers have had their career trajectory impacted by their age, with more than 60% of individuals in middle-management or higher positions fearing their age may prevent them from getting a new job if they were to be laid off. More recently during our COVID-19 pandemic, the AARP also found that “older workers were 17% more likely to become unemployed than their slightly younger peers.” Once out of work, these men and women over the age of 45 are also much less likely to be hired back at the rate of people who are younger. (Diversity Inc, AARP)
Technology
Where’s the next Silicon Valley? Austin, Denver and Salt Lake City are the obvious choices. They're already cities that tech workers and execs gravitate toward, to vacation and luxuriate in the lower taxes. They have the potential to be mini-SVs, with similar cultures and similar problems. Atlanta and Chicago are places that could challenge the industry: diversify it, encourage new innovation and make it cheaper and more accessible. Then there are the "emerging cities": It's a long list that includes places like Nashville (thanks to health tech), Pittsburgh (robotics) and Indianapolis (marketing technology). (Source Code)
The number of dud initial public offerings coming out of the tech industry is on the rise. Amid the flurry of tech companies making their public debut this year, a higher number than in the previous two years have quickly traded below the offering price. That includes companies such as cloud computing firm Rackspace Technology, cybersecurity company McAfee and insurance tech firm Root Inc. (The Information)
Rebekah Mercer, a prominent conservative donor, revealed that she is helping to bankroll Parler, the rapidly growing but controversial conservative social media platform that was at the top of App Store charts last week. Mercer is the daughter of Robert Mercer, a hedge fund manager and the co-founder of the now-defunct political data-analysis firm Cambridge Analytica. (CNN Business)
Video-game-maker Capcom warned a ransomware attack might have compromised gamers' personal information. Up to 350,000 people could be affected, and some of its own financial information has been stolen. (BBC News)
Apple is now under half of all podcast plays. Meanwhile, AT&T reached a deal to offer its HBO Max streaming service through Amazon, removing a distribution barrier that has checked the app’s growth since its launch. (PodNews, Wall Street Journal)
Smart Links
Washington Post editorial board: Abolish the electoral college. (Washington Post)
Vaccine rollout could cause U.S. dollar to fall 20% in 2021: Citi. (Reuters)
The 10 riskiest states to visit right now, ranked (South Dakota is No. 1). (Forbes)
Rents in British cities fall by up to 15% amid Covid 'exodus.' (The Guardian)
Manhattan has strongest week of luxury sales since March. (Mansion Global)
CalPERS allocates $8.45 billion to alternative investments. (Pensions & Investments)
New Mexico ranchers face historic drought. (Albuquerque Journal)
UC Berkeley fall 2020 semester sees 400% increase in cheating allegations. (Daily Californian)
Jeff Bezos names first recipients of his $10 billion Earth Fund. (CNBC)