The World
The May jobs report that stunned economists is dividing policymakers over next steps. Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote that “June payrolls could rise by one or two million,” while Goldman Sachs expects “the unemployment rate to fall to 10% at the end of 2020 and 7.5% at the end of 2021." (Finance 202)
The global economy is expected to shrink by about 5.2% in 2020, making it one of the four most severe downturns in 150 years, according to the World Bank. Emerging and developing economies will shrink for the first time in at least 60 years. (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times)
New York City took the first steps toward reopening. As many as 400,000 workers could return to construction jobs, manufacturing sites and retail stores in the first reopening phase. Meanwhile, some states, including CA, FL, and TX, report a rise in new cases as they lift restrictions. (New York Times, Wall Street Journal)
A veto-proof nine Minneapolis City Council members said they will “begin the process of ending the Minneapolis Police Department.” In NY, Mayor Bill de Blasio pledged to cut the city’s police funding. L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti announced he would cut as much as $150 million from a planned Police Department budget increase. (Star Tribune, New York Times, Los Angeles Times)
Congressional Democrats unveiled The Justice in Policing Act of 2020, which would ban chokeholds, establish a national database to track police misconduct and prohibit certain no-knock warrants, among a wide array of steps. (Washington Post)
Economists question China’s labor market’s purported strength. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus surged to a record in May as exports fell less than expected and imports slumped along with commodity prices. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)
A Chinese official suggested that Hong Kong should behave to keep its autonomy beyond 2047, indicating that the main challenge is a political struggle against forces trying to subvert Communist Party rule. Meanwhile, China mobilized thousands of paratroopers, armoured vehicles and equipment that could be deployed the India border ‘within hours’. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post)
U.S. allies in Europe — who hadn’t been officially informed — expressed dismay over plans to slash American troop numbers in Germany by more than a quarter, saying it undermined NATO and boosted adversaries such as Russia. (Wall Street Journal)
Economy & Investing
CEO’s confidence in current business conditions is up 14 percent versus May, and confidence in business conditions a year from now up 2 percent over the prior month. (Chief Executive)
Protectionism is poised to play an elevated role in global dealmaking, as governments including France, Australia, Germany, the UK and more create new regulations and incentives to maintain local ownership of homegrown companies. (Axios, The Times)
Europe’s speculative-grade corporate default rate is expected to more than treble to 8.5% by next March, rating S&P Global said, though in a more pessimistic scenario it could leap as far as 11.5%. Meanwhile, the IMF estimates that US public debt will exceed 130% of GDP after the recession, more than 30 percentage points higher than a decade ago. (Reuters, Financial Times)
US ecommerce will surge 18%, up from prior forecast of 13%, even as retail sales are expected to drop more than 10% in 2020. (eMarketer)
BP will cut nearly 10,000 jobs, or 14% of its workforce, and freeze pay increases for senior level managers. Royal Dutch Shell faces spending scrutiny after announcing a two-thirds quarterly dividend cut, as the oil rally and Saudi price spikes could hurt refiners. (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC)
Dunkin’ plans to hire 25,000 workers, while launching its first advertising campaign centered on hiring to tout the benefits of working there — including offering employees an online college education. (CNBC)
Technology
Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky hasn’t ruled out an IPO this year, as sites see a surge in summer demand. (Bloomberg)
How an antitrust battle focused on ads might play to Google’s advantage. (The Information)
With real-life games halted, the betting world is putting its action on E-Sports, including computer-vs.-computer games of FIFA livestream and League of Legends lineups, as video games have become casinos’ darling. (New York Times)
Smart Links
Astronomers found a planet like Earth orbiting a star like the sun. (MIT Technology Review)
Effective communications tactics in Zoom age. (Harvard Business School)
Science explains “Zoom fatigue.” (Wall Street Journal)
How Google Docs became the social media of the resistance. (MIT Technology Review)
How masks change human behavior. (Washington Post)
Remote learning didn’t work. (Wall Street Journal)