The World
Washington is flying blind as it tries to craft the next rescue bill, as policymakers struggle to navigate confusing economic data. Without more emergency spending, the Congressional Budget Office projects scarring to last through the end of the decade. The agency sees the jobless rate dropping to 10.5% by year end and averaging 6.1% through 2030. Now some Democrats are pushing what largely would be a novel solution for the U.S.: Pegging relief spending to economic conditions. (Finance 202)
54% of Americans are worried about the lack of social distancing in their local area, the first time that this measure has reached the majority level, as mitigation efforts in South and West hot spots may not have gone far enough, or lasted long enough, to effectively tame the spread. In CA, the positivity rate jumped 42% over the last two weeks. In FL, it took three months to cross 100,000 new confirmed cases — and less than two weeks for the next 100,000. (Gallup, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Miami Herald)
China stocks surge after state media urges investors to load up: The benchmark rose to a multi-year high, turnover is surging and state media is talking up the momentum. China Securities Journal, a newspaper affiliated with Xinhua news agency, said that a further run-up is expected because of favourable government policies. (Financial Times, South China Morning Post)
The U.S. military faces "the most significant geopolitical challenge since the end of the Cold War" in the Indo-Pacific theater, and will embark on a realignment of its global posture. Several thousand of the troops currently posted in Germany are expected to redeploy to American bases in Guam, Hawaii, Alaska, Japan and Australia. (Nikkei Asian Review)
China has accused the U.S. of having “ulterior motives” in sending two aircraft carrier strike groups to the disputed South China Sea, while its state media reported that Beijing stands ready to counter the challenge posed by Washington. (South China Morning Post)
The risk of UK funds being frozen out of the European market has risen after Brexit negotiators missed a key milestone — completing assessments of each other’s regulatory regimes for financial services — aimed at securing market access for the City of London. (Financial Times)
Green tsunami: The unprecedented showing for Europe Écologie Les Verts means Green mayors will take charge in Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux and Strasbourg. The party also came out on top in mid-sized cities such as Tours, Besancon, Annecy and Poitiers, while retaining control of Grenoble. Even Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo was re-elected with the Green Party’s endorsement. (Bloomberg)
Economy & Finance
Companies raised just $70bn last week through global debt markets, the lowest amount since March. Meanwhile, Citi sees markets in a ‘stalemate’ over the next 12 months. In its quarterly global equity report, Citi strategists said they would not be chasing markets higher from current levels. (Financial Times, CNBC)
Some private equity firms see early signs that deal making is picking up, with some firms turning to limited auctions, modified due diligence processes and minority stakes to complete deals. Meanwhile, secondary fundraising is staying strong, as these funds raised $40.06bn in 2020 through June 22, already surpassing the $21bn raised in all of 2019. (Wall Street Journal, Private Equity News)
Companies are hiring their own epidemiologists to help deal with the pandemic. Some brands have taken the unusual step of promoting these new hires to reassure a nervous public. (Washington Post)
Almost 3 million adults moved back home in wake of coronavirus. More than 80% of those are Gen Zers who pay an estimated $726 million in rent each month, about 1.4% of the total rental market. Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, Oklahoma City, Austin and Nashville have the most exposure to potential rent lost by young adults moving back home. (Zillow)
Technology
Facebook is suspending its processing of requests for user data from Hong Kong law-enforcement agencies following China’s imposition of a national-security law, citing the need to assess the law and do human rights due diligence. The move follows an earlier decision by its WhatsApp messaging service. (Wall Street Journal)
As jobs go remote, several cities — including Tulsa, Savannah, Topeka, and more — are doubling down on incentive programs to lure tech workers to work from home in a new location. (Bloomberg)
ESG micromobility companies like Bird and Lime have laid-off workers, left markets, and scrapped vehicles. Many transport officials now question if shared micromobility in its current VC-funded form is a sustainable solution. But there’s a way forward for more-sustainable shared transportation: Embrace ESG goals, fix the permitting process, invest much more in safe and sustainable transportation. (Bloomberg)
Researchers introduced a novel wearable device and set of algorithms specifically tailored to catch early signs and symptoms associated with COVID-19 and to monitor patients as the illness progresses. (Science Daily)
Smart Links
How Wall Street internships are going virtual. (Financial Times)
Unemployment rate is higher than officially recorded, more so for women and certain other groups. (Pew Research Center)
Federal Reserve & European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Research: Coronavirus will undermine trust in government for decades. (Washington Post)
The unraveling of the U.S.-South Korean alliance. (Foreign Affairs)
Why The Gap Is Betting Its Future on the Kanye Effect. (Marker)