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The World
‘We will do what we say’: Beijing warns US of ‘forceful’ reply to a planned Taiwan visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The visit would ‘shake the political foundation of China-US relations’, Chinese foreign ministry says. The risk and cost would be huge, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences analyst warns. (South China Morning Post)
EU wants good ties with Beijing, but will still stand with Taiwan, top lawmaker says. The status quo cannot be changed against the will of the Taiwanese people, European Parliament Vice-President Nicola Beer says in Taipei. Europe has stood up for Taiwan because it was too naive to trust Beijing on keeping its promise to Hong Kong, asserts German lawmaker. (South China Morning Post)
MI6 chief Richard Moore said Russia was “about to run out of steam” in Ukraine, giving the country’s military a chance to strike back in the conflict he described as a “strategic failure” for Vladimir Putin. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in his first overseas speech as head of the UK secret intelligence service, Moore said Russia would face trouble supplying troops and other logistical challenges in the coming weeks. Moore said that while the conflict was “obviously not over”, Russia was making only marginal progress in its campaign. (Financial Times)
Raytheon chief says Ukraine war will change west’s weapon-buying priorities: Greg Hayes believes US and Europe will need more conventional weaponry to deter Russian aggression. (Financial Times)
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will sign a deal on Friday to resume Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports. Russia and Ukraine are both major global wheat suppliers, but Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of its neighbor has sent food prices soaring and stoked an international food crisis. The war has stalled Kyiv's exports, leaving dozens of ships stranded and some 20 million tonnes of grain stuck in silos at Odesa port. (The Guardian)
Italy will hold snap elections on 25 September that could see a coalition led by the far-right Brothers of Italy party win a majority, after Mario Draghi’s resignation as prime minister. Announcing on Thursday that he had signed a decree to dissolve parliament, the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, said: “The period we are going through does not allow for any pause in the [government] action which is needed to counter the economic and social crisis and rising inflation.” Draghi confirmed his resignation early on Thursday after an attempt to salvage his broad coalition failed when three key parties snubbed a confidence vote. (The Guardian)
The vast heatwave covering swathes of Europe moved steadily eastwards, forcing countries including Italy, Poland and Slovenia to issue their highest heatwave alerts as firefighters battled wildfires across the continent. (Reuters)
Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon, survey finds: Findings suggest rising gun violence will spill into the political sphere, driven by conspiracy theories. Although almost all respondents thought it’s important for the United States to remain a democracy, about 40% said having a strong leader is more important. Half expect a civil war in the United States in the next few years. (The survey didn’t specify when.) “The fact that basically half the country is expecting a civil war is just chilling,” Wintemute says. And many expect to take part. If found in a situation where they think violence is justified to advance an important political objective, about one in five respondents thinks they will likely be armed with a gun. About 7% of participants—which would correspond to about 18 million U.S. adults—said they would be willing to kill a person in such a situation. (Science)
Lake Mead's water levels have sunk to the lowest since 1937, when the reservoir was being filled for the first time, according to newly released satellite pictures from NASA. Why it matters: The images show the dramatic change in the lake's water levels in the past 22 years, a trend that continues to accelerate amid the effects of climate change. Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the U.S., was at 27% of capacity as of Monday, per NASA. The dwindling water supply has led to multiple wildfires. (Axios)
Economy
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point, pledging to prevent surging borrowing costs from sparking a eurozone debt crisis amid political turmoil in Italy and the resignation of prime minister Mario Draghi. It was the first ECB rate rise for more than a decade and twice the size of the increase mooted by the bank only last month. The move ends eight years of negative rates and raises the ECB’s deposit rate to zero. (Financial Times)
Businesses decamp to Texas despite lurch to social right: Texas is continuing to attract big businesses from other states with its promise of low taxes and light regulation even as its Republican leaders position themselves on the front lines of America’s increasingly vicious culture wars. In just the past few weeks, Caterpillar, the machinery giant, uprooted its headquarters from Deerfield, Illinois, to move to Dallas and oil supermajor Chevron said it was downsizing its California head offices and expanding its footprint in Houston. They are joining a host of blue-chip groups that have moved to the Lone Star state over the past few years, including Tesla, Oracle and Hewlett-Packard, and scores of smaller ones that have trailed in their wake. (Financial Times)
U.S. President Joe Biden could pursue a "temporary reduction" of Trump-era tariffs on China in response to supply chain disruptions and rising inflation, a congressman involved in shaping legislation related to the Asia-Pacific told Nikkei. (Nikkei Asia Review)
Heat Wave Sends Natural-Gas Prices Soaring: Futures have climbed 48% in July as power plants guzzle the fuel to keep air conditioners humming. (Wall Street Journal)
Technology
a16z is moving its HQ to be “in the cloud” and plans to open offices in Miami Beach, New York, and Santa Monica “to be able to physically assemble anywhere.” Wrote Ben Horowitz: “In our firm’s new operating model, we work primarily virtually, but will use our physical presence to develop our culture, help entrepreneurs, and build relationships. Specifically, the firm is now virtual, but can materialize physically on command.” (a16z)
Snap announces plans to cut back hiring as it posts bleak results: The social media company’s shares plummet about 25% in after-hours trade as advertising demand slumps. (Financial Times)
Samsung is floating the idea of a broad expansion of semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Texas, a possibly significant step in bolstering domestic capabilities at a time of rising concern over US vulnerabilities. The South Korean company, the leading maker of memory chips, laid out potential plans to spend almost $200 billion on 11 plants in a series of filings in the state. Two of the units would be in Austin and nine would be in Taylor, Texas, where Samsung has already unveiled plans to spend $17 billion on an advanced facility. (Bloomberg)
Blockchain[dot]com Cuts 25% of Its Workforce Amid Crypto Bear Market: The digital assets trading firm said it will shutter its Argentina-based offices and halt its expansion plans in several countries. (CoinDesk)
Amazon spent a record $4.98M on lobbying in Q2 2022, up 2.5% YoY, Google spent $2.77M, up 32% YoY, Microsoft spent $2.41M, down 2.4% YoY, and Apple spent $1.9M. (Bloomberg)
Smart Links
40% of workers are considering quitting their jobs soon. (CNBC)
Amazon to acquire One Medical for $3.9bn. (Financial Times)
Utilities From New York to Tokyo Offer Prizes to Cut Power Use. (Bloomberg)
FedEx to suspend Sunday delivery in some markets amid downturn in package volumes and labor strife with contractors over pay and other practices. (Wall Street Journal)