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The World
Federal Reserve officials signalled that they expect to keep interest rates close to zero until at least 2024, even as they sharply upgraded their US growth forecasts. The Fed maintained its dovish stance, noting the improving outlook while cautioning that a full recovery remained distant, the path ahead was uncertain, and the economy still required ultra-easy monetary policy. The forecast upgrades were significant: whereas in December they predicted 4.2% growth this year, that estimate was bumped up to 6.5%, which would be the fastest economic expansion since 1984. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is now forecast to fall to 4.5% by the end of the year instead of 5%. (Financial Times)
The IRS delayed the main April 15 tax-filing and payment deadlines for individuals until May 17. The automatic extension applies to individual returns and payments for 2020 that are due on April 15; they will be extended to May 17 without penalties and interest. It doesn’t apply to 2021 estimated-tax payments due on April 15. Many questions remain unanswered, including whether states will follow suit and extend their income-tax deadlines. (Wall Street Journal)
The coming corporate tax hike: Democrats are zeroing in on raising the corporate tax rate from its current 21% to 28% as one of the easiest ways to find new revenue for an infrastructure package. While many senators are signaling that President Biden’s next big-ticket bill must come with a way to pay for it, the White House and its Democratic allies are growing confident they can get there, in part, by increasing corporate taxes. (Axios)
Russia recalled its ambassador from Washington for “consultations” after President Biden said Vladimir Putin will “pay a price” for interfering in the 2020 US election, branding the Russian leader a killer with no soul. (The Times)
North Korea says it will ignore US unless it ends ‘lunatic theory’: North Korea branded Biden’s attempts at low-level diplomatic outreach a “cheap trick” and promised to disregard any communication from Washington unless the US changes its stance towards the nuclear-armed state. (Financial Times)
Two powerful Senate chairmen — Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chair of the Armed Services Committee — are questioning plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 1, providing potential cover for President Biden to change his mind as he faces a rapidly approaching deadline. (Axios)
Global oil demand won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, and growth will be subdued thereafter amid new working habits and a shift away from fossil fuels, the International Energy Agency said. Fuel consumption will average just over 101 million barrels a day in 2023, fully recouping the 9 million a day lost last year when lockdowns emptied roads and grounded flights. But as trends like remote-working endure, and as governments seek to limit climate change, hydrocarbon use will falter. Oil demand in the middle of this decade will be about 2.5 million barrels lower than the agency projected last year. Gasoline consumption has probably peaked already. (Houston Chronicle, IEA Report)
Record wind power installations in 2020 have secured China’s position at the top of the global industry despite waning subsidies from Beijing. The Chinese wind market exceeded the council’s forecasts by more than 70%, elevating wind-generated power in China above the combined total for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. (Financial Times)
Beijing plans to press Washington to reverse many of the policies targeting China introduced during the Trump presidency in the first face-to-face meeting of senior U.S. and China officials since President Biden’s election today in Alaska. U.S. officials say the meeting is a way to present American complaints about Chinese actions, such as its curtailing of freedoms in Hong Kong, naval expansion in the South China Sea, economic pressure on U.S. allies, intellectual-property violations and cybersecurity incursions. The U.S. also plans to sound out Chinese officials about ways the two countries could work together on issues such as climate change and global health. China comes with a different agenda that has little overlap with Washington’s, a sign of how far apart the two sides are and how difficult it will be to repair the relationship. (Wall Street Journal)
A Protocol survey of 1,578 members of the U.S. tech community delivers a clear verdict: They think Washington's China tech policies are too restrictive. 57% agreed or strongly agreed that "U.S. restrictions on Chinese tech companies have gone too far," while only 16% disagreed. 60% said U.S. tech companies should work more closely with Chinese tech firms. 58% agreed or strongly agreed that "a cold war with China could cripple U.S. tech companies.” (Protocol)
Under-50s in the UK will have to wait longer for their coronavirus jab after the NHS warned last night of a four-week supply drought. Vaccine centers were told to halt any booking of new appointments for next month after NHS England said that it had been abruptly told of a “significant reduction” in supplies. (The Times)
Racially motivated extremists pose the most lethal domestic terrorism threats to the US, according to an unclassified intelligence report that warned that the threats could grow this year. (The Guardian)
Amazon is expanding its virtual care pilot program, Amazon Care, to employees and outside companies nationwide beginning this summer in a major evolution of its telehealth initiative. Amazon will also offer its on-demand primary care service to other Washington state-based companies and plans to expand its in-person service to Washington, D.C., Baltimore and other cities in the following months. Amazon Care offers free telehealth consults and in-home visits for a fee for its employees and their families. (Healthcare Dive)
Economy
Ford is giving 30,000 employees the option to work from home forever, another sign of workforce transformation. Many workers will have a new ‘hybrid option’ to work both remotely and in-person, starting in July. (Washington Post)
China’s rapid development of its sovereign digital currency, the so-called digital yuan, is causing the U.S. to worry that it could fall behind in the race for financial technology innovation. The digital yuan is one of the most advanced central bank digital currency initiatives in the world, with the People’s Bank of China having been conducting experiments and proceeding with tests for more than five years. And its potential success could not only mean a superior representation of central bank money to strengthen China’s domestic economy, but it could also increase international currency competition that could threaten the dominance of the US dollar. (South China Morning Post)
Private equity is expanding in health care, becoming a larger source of industry capital across buyout, growth, and venture strategies. Health care represented 14% of deal activity in private equity last year, up from 9% in 2007. Digital health companies are turning to private equity firms as their main source of capital, receiving $35 billion of investments in 2020. Although health care accounts for 5% of the world’s data, UBS said the industry remains one of the least digitalized. The investing opportunity for private equity is vast in the sector, with a total 146,000 private companies dwarfing the 2,700 publicly-traded health-care companies globally. (Institutional Investor)
Microsoft, Apple lead the Management Top 250 All-Stars. (Wall Street Journal)
New houses are costing more as prices jump for wood and bricks. Prices are surging for construction materials, and builders are passing the costs to home buyers as demand remains high. (Wall Street Journal)
Few houses, eager buyers, rising prices in Twin Cities: 'It's just insane.' (Star Tribune)
Technology
Apple plans to announce new iPads as early as April, adding to a product line that has performed particularly well as people work and study from home. The company is planning a refresh to its iPad Pro line, adding a better processor and improved cameras, the people said. The new models will look similar to the current iPad Pros and come in the same 11-inch and 12.9-inch screen sizes. (Bloomberg)
Samsung warned it’s grappling with the fallout from a “serious imbalance” in semiconductors globally, becoming the largest tech giant to voice concerns about chip shortages spreading beyond the automaking industry. The warning suggests shortages may spread beyond autos. (Bloomberg)
Samsung officially unveiled three of its next A-series phones: the Galaxy A52, A52 5G, and A72. While the company isn’t sharing US pricing or availability yet, it has confirmed European pricing: €349 for the A52 (about $415), €429 for the A52 5G (about $510), and €449 for the A72 ($534). Key specs across the board include IP67 water and dust resistance, brighter screens with faster refresh rates, and a 64-megapixel main camera with optical image stabilization. (The Verge)
Clubhouse’s Founder Is in a State of Perpetual Motion: Nearly a decade ago, South by Southwest was known as a launchpad for internet phenomena: The annual tech and arts festival was where Twitter Inc. broke out and where masses of 20-somethings made group messaging apps a thing. In the spring of 2012, the king of the conference was Highlight. Paul Davison, then 32, had released the app six weeks earlier with a proposition that was scary yet intriguing. It tracked users’ whereabouts to show them profiles of people nearby with similar interests or shared connections. For that week in Austin, Texas, everyone wanted to try it. Phones buzzed and buzzed and buzzed with Highlight notifications. Venture capitalists wrote checks for millions of dollars. But within a year, the app was deemed too invasive to go mainstream and had essentially flatlined. (Bloomberg)
How Stripe became Silicon Valley’s most prized asset: Even the co-founder of Stripe admitted there is nothing obviously attractive or exciting about the digital payments technology that is the focus of his company. “It’s low-margin . . . It’s very competitive,” said John Collison, who launched Stripe in 2010 with his brother Patrick, in an interview with the Financial Times last week. Stripe’s staff are “the strange and weird woodland creatures who are payments fanatics”, he added. Silicon Valley’s most prominent start-ups are normally consumer internet ventures such as Facebook and Uber — aggressive, fast-growing companies on a relentless drive for global domination and the huge brand awareness that goes with it. Yet it is Stripe — a name unfamiliar to most outside the tech industry — that now sits atop the list of Silicon Valley’s most prized private companies after investors valued it at $95bn this week. (Financial Times)
Smart Links
Morgan Stanley becomes the first big U.S. bank to offer its wealthy clients access to bitcoin funds. (CNBC)
Bitcoin ATMs are coming to a gas station near you. (Reuters)
American home buyers are flooding Tel Aviv’s property market. (Wall Street Journal)
Disneyland to reopen April 30. (Los Angeles Times)
Two pioneers of the theory of computation won the 2021 Abel Prize, one of the most prestigious honors in mathematics. (Nature)
Paying workers based on performance is harder than it looks. (Wall Street Journal)
Top Colleges in the Midwest for Academic Resources: Northwestern University heads this list from the WSJ/THE College Rankings (Wall Street Journal)
Live Events
Today, 5 pm ET: The Future of Democracy: A Conversation with President Bill Clinton. This program will delve into the challenges faced by our democracy today and what can be done to strengthen our democratic norms for future generations. Following the conversation with President Clinton, please stay tuned for a panel reaction from Cornell experts and to learn how to get involved with the Campaign for the Future of Democracy, an exciting new project through the Institute of Politics and Global Affairs. (Register: Cornell Institute of Politics and Global Affairs)