‘Consumer Confidence’
‘Consumer Confidence’
Today's Daily Briefing
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The World
The U.S. is considering sanctions that would target a United Arab Emirates-based businessman and a network of companies suspected of helping export Iran’s oil, part of a broader effort to escalate diplomatic pressure on Tehran as U.S. officials push to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. The firms and individuals under scrutiny have been using ship-to-ship transfers of oil in waters that lie between Iraq and Iran and then forging documents to hide the origin of the cargo, according to corporate documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, shipping data and people familiar with the matter. By passing off the blended oil as Iraqi, those involved can avoid Western sanctions targeting Iranian oil. (Wall Street Journal)
On Navy Day, Putin says United States is main threat to Russia: President Vladimir Putin signed a new naval doctrine which cast the United States as Russia's main rival and set out Russia's global maritime ambitions for crucial areas such as the Arctic and in the Black Sea. Speaking on Russia's Navy Day in the former imperial capital of St Petersburg founded by Tsar Peter the Great, Putin praised Peter for making Russia a great sea power and increasing the global standing of the Russian state. (Reuters)
Xi Jinping urges Chinese Communist Party to step up efforts to ‘win hearts and minds’ in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Chinese leader tells United Work Front Department – the body responsible for liaising with non-party groups – to reach out to ‘patriotic forces’ overseas. Xi tells the group it will play an increasingly important role in safeguarding national sovereignty. (South China Morning Post)
What US-China row over Pelosi and Taiwan means for Asian region: Uncertainty over how forcefully the US and Beijing will support their positions means no third party would want to step in, analysts note. Current sabre-rattling is all about intimidation, with domestic issues the real priority, Indian and Indonesian observers believe. (South China Morning Post)
Manchin to Sinema: Believe in this bill. Attention Kyrsten Sinema: The deal between Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin reflects your “tremendous input,” doesn’t raise taxes and is altogether an “all-American bill.” That’s, at least, according to Manchin. As Sinema (D-Ariz.) weighs whether to support the party-line energy, tax, deficit reduction and health care legislation, the West Virginia senator fanned out across all five Sunday shows to make the case for his deal. The moment reflected how intensely Manchin is now pressing to pass a package that only a few weeks ago he was lukewarm on, at best — and why he thinks Sinema should support it. (Politico)
The Chips Act is a new front in the war: The U.S. will soon dominate the semiconductor world once again. That is, if you believe the backers of the Chips Act and are willing to wait many years. The legislation, which advanced out of Congress last week and is heading to President Biden for his signature, will provide $76 billion in funding to help spur American semiconductor production. But its passage also signals an important new front in a bigger technology tussle between the U.S. and China. And outside of semiconductors and AI, there is a longer and potentially globe-altering research race underway that, while nascent, is progressing faster than some experts predicted. (Protocol)
The fast-moving McKinney Fire in northern California near the Oregon border has forced 2,000 residents to evacuate and has destroyed homes and critical infrastructure since it broke out on Friday. Already the largest blaze in California so far this year, the McKinney Fire in Siskiyou County has scorched 30,000 to 40,000 acres. It was about 1% contained as of Saturday, according to the latest data shared by officials. (Reuters, Los Angeles Times)
Black and Hispanic Employees Often Get Stuck at the Lowest Rung of the Workplace: A new comprehensive survey by McKinsey suggests that companies’ diversity efforts have largely missed the employees who stand to gain the most from them. (Wall Street Journal)
Economy
Corporations on the front lines of the economy say cracks are forming: The biggest companies in America — including Apple and Walmart — are beginning to see changes in the habits of consumers and their willingness to spend. (Washington Post)
A nascent two-month recovery in China’s home sales ended in July, as a widespread mortgage revolt over concerns that ailing property developers wouldn’t be able to deliver still-unfinished apartments weighed on demand. Sales at the country’s top 100 property developers fell 39.7% in July from the same period last year to the equivalent of $77.6 billion, or 523.14 billion yuan, according to data released Sunday by CRIC, a Chinese real-estate data provider. (Wall Street Journal)
Summer tourism brightens eurozone economy but cost of living crisis casts shadow: Despite a strong second quarter economists still think the region will fall into recession. (Financial Times)
Leading US credit card lenders are signaling their confidence in the American consumer, stepping up marketing efforts to attract new borrowers even as the economy slips into a technical recession. After rising 47 per cent in the first quarter, the volume of paper and digital mail solicitations sent by US credit card issuers increased again in the second quarter, according to preliminary data from marketing research firm Competiscan, putting it on track to reach a record high this year. (Financial Times)
Shale Profits Finally Blossoming After Decade of Steep Losses: US shale drillers are expected to post record second-quarter profits in coming days, reversing nearly a decade of debt-fueled losses. The top 28 publicly traded US independent oil producers generated $25.5 billion in free cash flow in the three months to June 30. In that space of time they’ll have made enough cash to erase one-fourth of what they lost over the previous decade. (Bloomberg)
Cracks in office property could cause structural damage. (Financial Times)
Technology
Foreign investors have pulled funds out of emerging markets for five straight months in the longest streak of withdrawals on record, highlighting how recession fears and rising interest rates are shaking developing economies. Cross-border outflows by international investors in EM stocks and domestic bonds reached $10.5bn this month according to provisional data compiled by the Institute of International Finance. That took outflows over the past five months to more than $38bn — the longest period of net outflows since records began in 2005. (Financial Times)
Individual Investors Ramp Up Bets on Tech Stocks: The Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen 21% in 2022. Yet many of its biggest stocks remain popular among individual investors, who say they expect the companies to continue powering the economy. (Wall Street Journal)
Silicon Valley is conflicted over what to do about the market downturn. Startups are getting mixed signals as concerns about stock market volatility and the prospect of a recession clash with record amounts of capital investors have at the ready. Venture capitalists are handing out contradictory advice, some encouraging startups to spend quickly while others forecast a severe downturn that will require painful cuts. (Wall Street Journal)
Apple’s Hot iPhone Quarter Masks a Behind-the-Scenes Slowdown: We should see a major bump from the new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air tucked into Q4 sales. And Apple will get more momentum from the launch of new Mac minis and high-end MacBook Pros later this year. By next year you’ll see a new Mac Pro, iMac and 15-inch MacBook Air. I am a little bit more concerned about the iPad and Apple’s several-quarter-long struggle to produce enough supply of its tablets. Anecdotally, it appears many consumers have failed to find the iPad they’re looking for over the past year at retail stores. I also think Apple has made the iPad Air and iPad Pro a bit too similar, which may flummox some shoppers. And I’ve already discussed the iPad Pro’s multitasking weaknesses. (Bloomberg)
Ring, Google and the Police: What to Know About Emergency Requests for Video Footage: The law lets Ring and Google share user footage with police during emergencies without consent and without warrants. Here's everything you should know. (Cnet)
Smart Links
The U.S. Is Investing in Chips. So Is the Rest of the World. (Wall Street Journal)
Academic publishers forced to delay new titles in supply chain crunch. (Financial Times)
The Euro Feels the Pressure as Economy Tips Toward Recession. (Bloomberg)
Andreessen Horowitz’s Dixon Replaces Katie Haun on OpenSea Board. (The Information)
China Factory Activity Sees Shock Contraction on Outbreaks. (Bloomberg)
Roast the chickens earlier and dim the lights: French retailers prepare for power shortages. (Financial Times)