The World
The IMF slashed its economic forecasts and warned that public finances will deteriorate significantly — and the global debt ratio will push above 100% for the first time. The IMF estimates a contraction of 4.9% in global GDP in 2020, lower than the 3% fall it predicted in April. The IMF projects the U.S. economy will shrink 8% this year before expanding 4.5% next year. Eurozone economies are projected to shrink 10.2% this year and expand 6% next year. China’s economy is expected to expand 1% this year and 8.2% in 2021, as it falls back on old playbook of debt and construction. (Bloomberg, CNBC, New York Times, South China Morning Post)
The U.S. is considering new tariffs on EU whisky and fashion goods, deepening trade tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. may be out, China in as EU looks to reopen external borders on July 1. (Financial Times, Politico)
The new U.S. visa ban will prevent about 30,000 British bankers, software developers and other skilled workers from taking up jobs in America this year. Which firms are most affected by H-1B visa restrictions? (The Times, Reuters)
Americans are avoiding stores again — and NY, NJ and CT imposed a 14-day quarantine on travelers from hotspot states — as more than 35,000 new U.S. coronavirus cases were identified, the highest single-day total since late April and the third-highest daily total yet. As 25 states saw an increase, CA shattered its daily record. In Hong Kong, flyers hiding their infections show the risk of reopening borders. (Bloomberg, CNBC, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Bloomberg)
The median age of new Covid cases in outbreak states continues to decline, as Americans report their highest confidence in the ability to protect themselves. 27% now say they are "very confident" that they can protect themselves, and overall, 82% of respondents report they are at least "somewhat confident" they will be able to avoid infection while in public. (@ScottGottliebMD, Gallup)
Black Americans are outraged by George Floyd’s death, but optimistic about change after the nationwide protests. Nearly 6 in 10 black Americans believe Floyd’s killing will increase white Americans’ concern about racial discrimination by police. And a narrow majority think police treatment of black Americans is likely to improve in coming years. (Washington Post-Ipsos poll)
Economy & Finance
A record number of US companies sought loan amendments in May after rising debts and falling earnings left them at risk of breaching the terms of their borrowing. (Financial Times)
Weekly homebuyer mortgage demand ticked down but remains 18% higher than a year ago. Total mortgage application volume fell 8.7%, homebuyer demand for mortgages fell 3% , refinance applications fell 12%. (CNBC)
For the first time since February, the percentage of people who think now is a good time for major purchases like home improvements surpassed the percentage of those who think it’s a bad time. Further, 38% of U.S. households are planning to make a major home improvement in the next 6 months. (CivicScience)
Advanced economies have delivered more fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP than emerging markets. Meanwhile, this year will have the highest synchronization of national recessions since 1870. (Daily Shot, World Economic Forum)
Technology
Toronto would like to be seen as the nice person’s Silicon Valley, if that’s not too much trouble: Prime Minister Trudeau promised to welcome 350,000 additional immigrants by 2021, and Toronto added more new tech jobs between 2013 and 2018 than any other North American market surveyed. (MIT Technology Review)
Google considers alternatives to Hong Kong for undersea cable, as plans for Pacific Light Cable network shift to Southeast Asia. (Financial Times)
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation into 63,000 Tesla Model S cars after reports of media-control unit failures that led to the loss of the use of touchscreens. (Reuters)
A wave of sexual harassment accusations is sweeping the video games industry, as allegations of assault, abuse, and harassment are moving through every level. (Vice)
Smart Links
Event (today, 3 pm ET) — Digital Currencies: The Future of Money? (Harvard Belfer Center)
The New York City Marathon, the world’s largest, has been canceled. (NYRR)
Record-low 54% in U.S. say the death penalty is morally acceptable. (Gallup)
Segway: End of the road for the much-hyped two-wheeler. (BBC)
Massive prehistoric circle near Stonehenge. (Science Daily)
V-shaped recovery? (BCA Research)