The World
With President Trump’s positive test, a review of various risks: 1. National security: China and other powers know the U.S. is distracted, as a time when hotspots are on fire, including in the South China Sea and the China and India border. 2. Economic: After summer signs of life, the economy is struggling again. With markets uncertain, businesses won't be getting the signals they need. 3. Social: Many Americans had gotten lazy about virus protection. Any stigma that went with masks — always unfounded — should vanish. 4. Political: With 32 days to go before an election that both sides call the most vital in American history, the incumbent is temporarily off the campaign trail. Meanwhile, as the news impacted markets, the market's record suggests investors quickly absorb and move past history-bending shocks. (Axios, Finance 202, Washington Post)
President Trump and the First Lady reported “mild symptoms,” while VP Mike Pence, VP Joe Biden, and Sen. Kamala Harris all tested negative. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) tested positive. Duluth, MN Mayor Emily Larson asked attendees of Trump’s Wednesday rally to wear masks and get tested, as prominent Minnesota Republicans went into quarantine and are seeking COVID-19 tests. (Reuters, Duluth News Tribune, StarTribune)
In the last monthly jobs report issued before the election, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 7.9% as the economy added just 661,000 jobs in September — the smallest monthly job gain since May. No incumbent president since World War II has faced a jobless rate higher than 7.7 percent and won. (Washington Post, Finance 202)
The U.S. economy was laden with debt before covid. 14 charts show how we got there—and what it means. New York’s credit ratings are the latest casualties, as Moody’s downgraded both the city and state’s general-obligation bonds by one notch. Meanwhile, U.S. household income fell sharply in late summer while worker layoffs remained high. (Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Wall Street Journal-2)
Pfizer’s covid vaccine trial won't be rushed by political pressure and is “moving at the speed of science,” rather than under any political timing, its CEO told employees. Moderna chief says vaccine won't be widely available before late March. Separately, any first doses of U.S. vaccine must be strictly rationed, as an administration study recommends health workers in minority communities be inoculated first. (Associated Press, CNN, Financial Times)
Taiwan scrambled fighter jet to ward off a Chinese warplane that had entered its air defence identification zone near a group of islets administered by Taipei. In Russia, the group accused of attacking the 2016 U.S. election has posed as an independent news outlet to target right-wing social media users ahead of this year’s vote. The presidents of France, Russia and the U.S. for an immediate ceasefire between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces around Nagorno-Karabakh, but Turkey said they should have no role in peace moves. (South China Morning Post, Reuters, Reuters-2)
The U.S. will cut refugee admissions still deeper into record territory. The change is not drastic: no more than 15,000 in the fiscal year that began Thursday, down from 18,000 in the 2020 fiscal year, which was a record low. Both numbers are slivers of the 110,000 slots that President Obama approved in 2016. Meanwhile, a federal judge blocked the administration from enforcing its ban against many of the biggest U.S. companies bringing in foreign workers under H-1B and other employment-based visas. (New York Times, Wall Street Journal)
A new high of 41% of U.S. adults say it is better to have a president and Congress from the same political party. 23% would rather have one party control the presidency and the other control Congress, while 32% say it makes no difference to them. (Gallup)
Economy
A UK review shows that the Covid Generation faces a lifelong dip in earnings as a result of the lockdown, with the overall economic cost for current high schoolers estimated at £11bn ($14bn). (Forbes)
Goldman Sachs plans to eliminate about 1% of its workforce, or roughly 400 positions. Adding that to disclosures this week by other banks would take the total announced this year to 67,844, though the actual total is probably higher because many banks eliminate staff without disclosing their plans. (Bloomberg)
One in four women are considering leaving the workforce or downshifting their careers as a result of Covid. (Leanin.Org/McKinsey survey).
Covid Road Tripping: Free to work remotely, young Americans with no kids or mortgage are asking, Why stay in one place? After all, more than 34% of people substituted some or all of their typical in-person work for remote from Sept. 2-14. Meanwhile, Twitter’s plans for work from home indefinitely have prompted a wave of copycats. But its transformation has been two years in the making — and the rest of America can learn some lessons. (Bloomberg, Washington Post)
Southeast Asia private equity starts to attract money from Europe, as Indonesia and other high-growth nations loom as 'next big' venture capital region. (Nikkei Asian Review)
Technology
Salesforce expects 30% YoY growth in global digital commerce this holiday season, dwarfing last year's 8% growth. That will drive ecommerce to a record high share of total commerce: Digital sales are expected to account for 18% of all retail globally, and 30% in the U.S. Meanwhile, Bed Bath & Beyond announced an 89% increase in online sales. (Protocol, Salesforce, Wall Street Journal)
What the government’s antitrust proposals would actually mean for tech: 1) "Structural separation," requiring large data companies to pursue a "single line of business" rather than leveraging their power to forge into new markets. 2) Make acquisitions harder. 3) Public-utility-style regulation. 4) More resources to the FTC and DOJ for antitrust enforcement. 5) Interoperability, requiring companies to build connections between their products, making it easier for users to jump from one platform to another. (Protocol)
New York City’s transportation commission two years ago made new rules that guaranteed a minimum wage for drivers of Uber, Lyft and similar services. Among the worries was that drivers and passengers could wind up worse off, because the rule changes would increase fares and drivers would lose work. Results: Drivers in New York have made more per hour and for each trip on average, people haven’t been significantly discouraged from riding with Uber or Lyft, and even the companies have most likely done better. (New York Times)
Smart Links
New York could lose 159,000 restaurant jobs due to pandemic. (Gothamist)
How the brain handles the unknown. (Axios)
Sotheby’s to livestream its most valuable contemporary art sale in Hong Kong on Oct. 6. (Barron’s)
How the Artemis moon mission could help get us to Mars. (MIT Technology Review)
3D biometric authentication based on finger veins almost impossible to fool. (Science Daily)
England bans plastic straws. (BBC News)