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The World
The Fed meets this week in the immediate shadow of today’s election. Prospects of a contested election, a rocky interregnum before the Jan. 20 inauguration, perhaps even a government shutdown if a new financing bill is not agreed in December, all make the coming weeks risky. (Reuters)
Market investors believe Biden is going to win the presidency, and they’re betting with their portfolios. The so-called “Biden basket” of stocks — companies in line for a boost from the Democrat’s focus on infrastructure, clean energy, expanded health-care access and reduced trade tensions with China — rose 11.3 percent over the past 30 days. Over the same period, the “Trump basket” — heavy on companies from the financial, oil and gas and domestic manufacturing industries and those that would benefit most from more tax cuts — has climbed 5.2 percent. (Finance 202, Guggenheim Investments)
Rich countries have already snapped up billions of doses of potential coronavirus vaccines, potentially leaving poor countries without enough supply for years to come. An analysis from Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Center found that high- and middle-income countries have already purchased 3.8 billion doses, with options for 5 billion more. Meanwhile, Dr. Deborah Birx, who has straddled the line between science and politics, sent White House officials a private memo warning that the pandemic is entering a new and “deadly phase” that demands a more aggressive approach. Some good news: A new study found that cellular, or “T-cell,” immunity against Covid-19 is likely to be present within most adults six months after primary infection. Meanwhile, Texas has surpassed California as the state with the most coronavirus cases, despite having 10 million fewer residents. Hundreds of thousands of people in Germany are in quarantine, and France could reimpose a night curfew on Paris amid frustration that too many people are ignoring a new lockdown. Italy reported its highest daily death total since May. (Washington Post, New York Times, UK-CIC, Los Angeles Times, The Guardian)
A gunman shot dead by police in Vienna after a rampage that killed four people was identified as an Islamic State sympathizer who had been convicted of belonging to a terrorist group. In Poland, the rightwing government delayed the publication and implementation of a high court ruling that tightens the abortion law and has triggered almost two weeks of nationwide protests. Dozens were killed in a ‘massacre’ in western Ethiopia, as ethno-nationalist violence threatens reforms. (The Times, The Guardian, Financial Times)
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned of rising risks as the party charted its next five year course. It was not immediately clear to what risks Xi was referring but China faces rising tensions with the U.S. over issues including trade, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and human rights and economic shocks brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. (Reuters)
The share of ballots being rejected because of flawed signatures and other errors appears lower — sometimes much lower — than in the past. Healthcare issues are driving voters to the polls with the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion and pre-existing condition protections key on voter minds. 72% of voters say taking the time to count all ballots is more important rather than rushing the outcome of the election (29%). (New York Times, HealthcareDive, YouGov)
Economy
China halted the $37bn Ant Group IPO, citing “major issues,” and leaving it in “turmoil.” The Shanghai stock exchange said Jack Ma, Ant’s founder, had been called in for “supervisory interviews” and said there had been “other major issues,” including changes in “the financial technology regulatory environment.” Ma gave a major speech at the end of October railing against financial regulation both in China and in the West. That speech resulted in a dressing-down from Chinese authorities. (Financial Times, Nikkei Asian Review, Axios)
Private-equity firms are bracing for a busy year-end, regardless of who wins the presidential election. Factors including a pent-up pipeline of deals, possible changes in tax policies and low interest rates are driving a bump in PE deal activity. (Wall Street Journal)
Companies hit hard by the pandemic have flooded the market this year with the most convertible bonds since 2007. Investors who scooped up these securities have been rewarded with strong returns. Meanwhile, malls are being dragged into bankruptcy by the carage of their retail tenants: Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust and CBL & Associates Properties sought Chapter 11 protection from creditors. Together the two REITs account for some 87 million square feet of real estate across the U.S. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)
Deutsche Bank is looking for ways to end its relationship with President Trump after the U.S. elections, as it tires of the negative publicity stemming from the ties, according to three senior bank officials with direct knowledge of the matter. Meanwhile, Russia’s rouble has been jolted by falling oil prices and US election angst (Reuters, Financial Times)
The pandemic recession has become a ‘shecession’ as more working moms are forced to quit jobs. Women are not only bearing the majority of job losses during the coronavirus pandemic, some are being forced to leave their jobs to care for their children full-time. In September alone, 865,000 women left the workforce or were laid off nationwide, compared with 216,000 men. (Chicago Tribune)
Technology
Walmart terminated its agreement with robotics company Bossa Nova Robotics that had helped deploy smart inventory-scanning robots at about 500 of the retail giant’s U.S. stores, after a five year-long partnership. Walmart executives concluded that the human workers were doing their jobs at more or less the same speed as the robot ones. (Gizmodo)
Jack Dorsey is safe as CEO of Twitter. After a long review from Elliott Management, the company “recommended that the current structure remain in place." Meanwhile, Janet Napolitano is Zoom's newest board member. The former governor of Arizona and Homeland Security secretary now teaches at Berkeley, and will help Zoom understand both government and education customers. (Source Code, SEC)
Just 1% of the vacuum cleaners, immersion blenders and other household products listed on Amazon last year were sold by the retailer, with the rest coming from other merchants who use its platform. Yet 33% of all sales in that category were by Amazon. Those were among the figures published in a little-noticed chart, based on internal Amazon data, that was part of the House Judiciary Committee’s antitrust report. (The Information)
Space Wars: The China, U.S. space rivalry “may heat up” after NASA’s Artemis Accords are signed. The legal framework for behavior in space allows countries or private companies to extract lunar resources and create temporary “safety zones.” But China and Russia are not signatories, and Chinese observers expect competition to intensify. Meanwhile, here’s how the Artemis moon mission could help get us to Mars. (South China Morning Post, MIT Technology Review)
Smart Links
13 patriotic spots Americans should visit at least once. (The Discoverer)
How queuing theory can help manage polling places during Covid-19. (MIT Election Lab)
CNN and MSNBC saw ratings spike during the Trump presidency. What happens if Biden wins? (Washington Post)
Fox books quarterly gains from Fox News, political advertising — “record for any election.” (Wall Street Journal)
Busiest October in 15 years for Twin Cities homebuilders. (Star Tribune)
About half of all sun-like stars could host planets like Earth. (National Geographic)
The electric Porsche Taycan now comes with Apple Podcasts. (Porsche)