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The World
Congress is nearing agreement on a $900 billion relief package expected to include hundreds of billions of dollars in aid for ailing small businesses and jobless Americans; tens of billions of dollars in aid for other critical needs, such as vaccine distribution and schools; and a one-time check of between $600 and $700 for millions of Americans below a certain income threshold. It would leave out state and local funding and a liability shield. (Washington Post, Politico)
74% of small business owners need further government assistance to weather the pandemic. That percentage rises to 81% for minority-owned businesses. A Goldman Sachs poll found that 90% of small businesses have exhausted their PPP funds. (Reuters, CNBC)
The U.S. poverty rate jumped to 11.7% in November, up 2.4 percentage points since June. It’s the biggest jump in a single year since the government began tracking poverty 60 years ago and nearly double the next-largest rise, which occurred in 1979-1980 during the oil crisis. Meanwhile, 78% of Americans are at least somewhat concerned about the rising level of inequality in the U.S. and 48% are very concerned. (Washington Post, University of Chicago & Notre Dame, Axios)
The Fed dialed up its economic expectations slightly and now expects real GDP to fall just 2.4% in 2020, compared to a decline of 3.7% predicted in September. The Fed also upped its 2021 real GDP forecast to 4.2% from 4% expected previously. Japan raised its 2021 GDP forecast to around 4% growth, while the pound hit its highest level since 2018 on hopes of a Brexit trade deal. Oil prices hit a nine-month high. (CNBC, Nikkei Asian Review, Financial Times, Reuters)
Pharmacists can squeeze extra doses out of vials of Pfizer's vaccine, potentially expanding the nation's scarce supply by up to 40%. The confusion came over labeling: The vaccine comes in vials labeled as containing enough for five doses. But pharmacists discovered that, after thawing and mixing the contents with a dilutent, each vial contained enough vaccine for six doses. Without explicit approval, that final dose had to be discarded. (Politico, STAT News)
71% of 150 CEOs of America’s largest companies at The Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute Summit said a Covid vaccination should be required at work, as Walgreens and CVS Health expect to have Covid-19 shots for the general public in the early spring. Meanwhile, BioNTech is set to become first foreign vaccine to enter the China market. (Chief Executive, CNBC, Financial Times)
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson encouraged people over 70 not to spend Christmas with relatives. In L.A. County, ERs are so crowded that ambulances have had to wait as long as six hours to offload patients. California is also seeking more medical staff from overseas. Meanwhile, more than 2,000 nurses and other licensed professionals at three Southern California HCA hospitals are poised to strike Christmas Eve through Jan. 3, citing staffing and safety concerns. A wild mink in Utah is the first free-ranging native animal anywhere to test positive for Covid-19. (The Times, Los Angeles Times, Healthcare Dive, Salt Lake Tribune)
Facebook lashed out at Apple in full-page newspaper ads, claiming the iPhone maker’s coming mobile software changes around data gathering and targeted advertising are bad for small businesses. The ads home in on upcoming changes to Apple’s iOS 14 operating system that will curb the ability of companies like Facebook to gather data about users and ply them with targeted advertising. Meanwhile, Facebook also said it would assist Epic, the company behind the popular videogame “Fortnite,” in its high-profile legal battle with Apple. Apple responded: "Users should know when their data is being collected and shared across other apps and websites — and they should have the choice to allow that or not." (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, MacRumors)
China appears to have used mobile phone networks in the Caribbean to surveil US mobile phone subscribers as part of its espionage campaign against Americans. Meanwhile, Iran has circumvented U.S. sanctions and exported more oil to China and other countries in recent months, providing a lifeline for its struggling economy. (The Guardian, Wall Street Journal)
New Israeli elections — its fourth round in two years — are seen as a virtual certainty, as a Knesset dispersal deadline looms. The governing coalition must agree on budget by midnight Tuesday, as sources report no contact between the governing parties. (Times of Israel)
Voters’ confidence in institutions has largely rebounded after deep dips nearly across the board in 2018. Small businesses and the military remain America’s most trusted institutions. (Morning Consult/Politico)
Economy
Between April and September, 45 of the 50 most valuable publicly traded U.S. companies turned a profit. Despite their success, at least 27 of the 50 largest firms held layoffs this year, collectively cutting more than 100,000 workers. (Washington Post)
A net 70,000 people left New York City this year, resulting in roughly $34 billion in lost income. Meanwhile, San Francisco is expecting to collect at least $98 million less in business taxes than planned for this fiscal year, a large part of which is because many local workers were remote — the city can't tax businesses for workers that aren't physically doing their work in the city. (Reuters, Unacast study, Protocol)
85% of 150 CEOs of America’s largest companies think they will need less space for their workforces going forward — 32% said they’d use 50% less office space a year from now, 38% said they’d use 25% less. No one polled said they planned to expand their office space in the coming year. (Chief Executive)
The recent Airbnb, DoorDash and C3(dot)ai IPOs illustrated the heat for tech stocks — all three saw significant jumps in stock price in their first day of trading. Those pops, however, raise questions about how IPOs are priced. While that may make those who were able to secure shares excited, it also can mean the companies themselves left hundreds of millions of dollars—or billions in the case of Airbnb and DoorDash—on the table. (Crunchbase)
How the SPAC boom could spill over into private equity: Pitchbook predicts that in 2021, at least 20 private equity-backed companies could go public via a SPAC. (Institutional Investor)
Pitchbook released its 2021 Venture Capital Outlook forecasts. Highlights: Biotech & pharma VC deal activity will likely exceed $20 billion for the second consecutive year; established managers will increase proportion of overall VC fundraising to above 75% for the first time since 2012; more VC-backed exits over $1 billion will occur via direct listings rather than SPAC listings in 2021; Bay Area will fall below 20% of US deal count for first time. (Pitchbook)
This year investors put a record $27.4 billion into ETFs traded in U.S. markets that say they focus on ESG practices, doubling the size of the sector. (Wall Street Journal)
Technology
Facebook plans to let users find and book services, competing with gig economy marketplaces such as TaskRabbit, Fiverr, and Angie’s List. Facebook is building a team to focus on services, potentially including home repairs or freelance jobs, within its larger Marketplace classifieds group, signaling Facebook’s growing online commerce ambitions. (The Information)
Texas is leading a 10-state lawsuit against Google, accusing it of anti-competitive conduct in advertising. Meanwhile, Google is expected to be sued by yet another bipartisan group of at least 36 state and territory attorneys general for anticompetitive behavior to maintain its dominance of online search. (Texas Tribune, Reuters)
How Russian hackers infiltrated the US government for months without being spotted: Hackers first broke into the systems of SolarWinds, an American software company. There, they inserted a back door into Orion, one of the company’s products. For several weeks beginning in March, any client that updated to the latest version of Orion unwittingly downloaded the compromised software, giving the hackers a way into their systems. SolarWinds says that “fewer than” 18,000 organizations ever downloaded the compromised update. (MIT Technology Review)
Breakout year for creator economy: Cameo expects to make $100 million from video transactions this year, as over 1 million Cameo videos have been sold-to-date and tens of thousands of talent now use the app to sell videos; Substack has more than 250,000 paid subscribers; Patreon is now valued at $1.2 billion, after raising $90 million in September; OnlyFans will earn $300 million in profit this year; Twitch has doubled the number of streamers on its platform during the pandemic. (Axios)
Smart Links
Beethoven at 250: Six Harvard composers reflect on how he changed music and why he still matters. (Harvard Gazette)
China’s Chang’e 5 lunar mission returned to Earth after collecting moon samples. (South China Morning Post)
Climate variation linked to rise and fall of medieval nomadic empires. (MIT News)
Spotify signed an exclusive podcast deal with The Duke and Duchess of Sussex: Meghan and Prince Harry. (Spotify)
People are hiring productivity nannies to watch them work. (Wired UK)
Massachusetts governor won’t sign facial recognition ban. (The Verge)
The pandemic’s toll on the U.S. restaurant industry. (Statista)