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The World
Oxford Economics sees the economic rebound hitting a “dangerous plateau, [as] without further fiscal aid until 2021, a poorly managed health situation and election uncertainty could make for a long winter.” Macroeconomists have started trimming expectations for 4Q20 growth. Goldman Sachs cut its projection in half, to 3%, back in September once it concluded Washington was unlikely to approve more stimulus. The Atlanta Fed sees 2.2% growth this quarter. Coca-Cola CEO: “It is not a straight-line recovery around the world. It’s important to remember the world is in a fragile state.” The UK is on the “brink of double-dip recession” as industry leaders warned of a bleak winter as companies brace for a “truly devastating” nationwide lockdown starting this week, and economists downgraded their forecasts. Bright spot: U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in October, with new orders jumping to their highest level in nearly 17 years. (Finance 202, Wall Street Journal, The Times, The Times-2)
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised the country will defeat Covid by the spring with the help of millions of cheap rapid tests, as he sought to reassure MPs that he had an exit strategy from the latest lockdown. In Indonesia, Jakarta’s graveyards are running out of space. Half of Slovakia's population was tested in one day; about 25,850 people, or about 1%, tested positive and had to go into quarantine. In Madrid, police made 32 arrests as violent demonstrators have taken to the streets in cities including Barcelona, Bilbao and Málaga to protest restrictions. Geneva went into lockdown, while the Greek government completely shut down the Thessaloniki airport, stranding thousands. (The Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, El Pais, Jerusalem Post)
UAE minister backs Macron on Muslim integration, supporting the French president’s stance and blaming Turkey’s Erdogan for fanning discord. Meanwhile, Muslim protesters defile ‘Louis Vuitton’ bags in Indonesia as protests flare in several cities and thousands attend a demonstration near the French Embassy in Jakarta. In Bangladesh, tens of thousands of Muslims protested and called for the French Embassy in Dhaka to shut down. (Financial Times, South China Morning Post, Nikkei Asian Review)
Gunmen stormed Kabul University as it was hosting a book fair, leading to a gun battle lasting several hours that left at least 19 people dead and 22 wounded. (The Guardian)
Nearly 100 million Americans have cast early ballots, with Democrats holding a significant edge. Republicans hope to make up the difference, and then some, with a strong showing tomorrow. That’s where Trump appears to see his best hope. In two potentially decisive states — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — officials can’t begin processing early ballots until election day. Because of that, Trump could be ahead in the initial count Tuesday night in those states, even if more votes have been cast for Biden. Trump signaled his intention to rush to court as soon as the polls close. Reuters offers a look at the laws that give Trump authority in this area, and the limitations on his power, as well as potential stock winners and losers from the election (Los Angeles Times, Reuters, Reuters-2)
Chicago and other cities boarded-up windows and limited hours as businesses brace for possible Election Day unrest. A “non-scalable” fence is being built around the White House for the election. (Chicago Tribune, Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
Economy
Americans predict they will spend an average $805 on Christmas gifts this year, significantly below their estimate a year ago ($942) and the lowest October holiday spending projection Gallup has measured since 2016. The sharp decline in Americans' spending intentions since 2019 points to weak holiday sales for retailers. (Gallup)
Investors are heading into what could be the most volatile week for markets all year. Many money managers are reluctant to project confidence after being caught off guard by a number of market-jolting shocks over the years. (Wall Street Journal)
Even though China’s sovereign digital currency pilot is still in its “early stage,” transactions hit USD $300 million. China’s Central Bank says the sovereign digital currency has been used in over 4 million transactions totalling 2 billion yuan. (South China Morning Post)
Tech workers take to the mountains, bringing Silicon Valley with them: The diaspora of tech talent is apparent in towns around the Rockies, where wealth and business activity are rising, along with property prices. Tech staffers from the Bay Area are relocating across the country, bringing to their new locales the woes and upsides that go with some of America’s highest-paying jobs. (Wall Street Journal)
Unicorns that completed IPOs this year have on average seen public market values worth more than double last-known private valuations. Those are the highest gains since tracking for this cohort began, and helps explain why so many heavily funded private tech companies are prepping for public debuts. (Crunchbase)
Technology
Beijing is interviewing Jack Ma over the $37bn Ant IPO, as four Chinese regulators called in the Ant founder and 2 other executives for questions ahead of Thursday listing. (Financial Times)
Amazon has explored expanding its already giant distribution network to rural areas, one of the few parts of the U.S. where it doesn’t now handle its own deliveries, under a new initiative called Wagon Wheel. The move would take business away from the U.S. Postal Service, which handles most of Amazon’s deliveries to remote addresses. Under the plan, the e-commerce giant intends to open small shipping hubs in rural communities around the U.S. (The Information)
How America Turned to Videogames Under Lockdown: With little else to do, Americans are spending record amounts of money on videogames. New players are taking up the habit, and even parents are embracing the pastime as a way for kids to socialize online. The way we entertain ourselves may never be the same. (Wall Street Journal)
Apple announced its next special event for November 10 with the tagline “One more thing.” The event is likely to focus on the Apple Silicon transition for the Mac lineup — and a 13-inch MacBook Pro and Air are the likely first Apple Silicon Macs. (9to5Mac.com)
Smart Links
How important is a headquarters? One CEO considers getting rid of it. (Wall Street Journal)
How long will vote counting take? Estimates and deadlines in all 50 states. (New York Times)
How long can gyms survive? (Marker)
The college courses entrepreneurs wish they had taken. (Wall Street Journal)
Amazon’s offsets could exaggerate its progress toward "net zero" emissions. (MIT Technology Review)
Saudi Arabia faces increased heat, humidity, precipitation extremes by mid-century. (MIT News)
Human body temperatures are dropping. (University of California - Santa Barbara)