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The World
Rescuers in Turkey and Syria worked overnight and in near-freezing temperatures to comb through rubble in search of survivors after a powerful earthquake and aftershocks collapsed thousands of buildings, killed more than 4,300 people and raised the specter of a new humanitarian disaster in an area of the world already racked by war, a refugee crisis and deep economic troubles. The initial magnitude 7.8 earthquake hit at 4:17 a.m. local time on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey, and was also felt in Cyprus, Egypt, Israel and Lebanon. Hundreds of aftershocks, including an unusually strong 7.5 magnitude tremor, struck Turkey in the aftermath, the U.S.G.S. said. The series of shocks was the deadliest to hit the country in more than 20 years. (New York Times)
World’s nations rush to help: Governments from Asia to Europe to the Middle East are preparing teams and emergency supplies to send to the 2 countries to help in rescue efforts. (South China Morning Post)
Why Turkey and Syria’s calamitous earthquakes were decades in the making: The devastating earthquakes were centered on one of the world’s most seismically active — and politically turbulent — regions. Strain accumulated over decades as Earth’s slow-moving tectonic plates pushed against one another was released in a few seconds, causing violent vibrations as rock masses suddenly overcame friction and snapped past each other. Such seismic stresses build up in the region of Turkey because the Arabian plate is pushing the Anatolian plate westward at a rate of about 2cm per year, according to David Rothery, a professor of geosciences at the Open University in the UK. Joanna Faure Walker, head of University College London’s Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, said: “Turkey has experienced the deadliest earthquake worldwide four times in the last 50 years — in 2020, 1999, 1983 and 1975.” (Financial Times)
The US has said it does not plan to return the debris from the Chinese spy balloon to Beijing, even after technical experts have finished analyzing the surveillance capabilities that were on board the craft. NSC spokesperson John Kirby said there were no plans to return the debris to China, which has accused the US of violating the “spirit of international law” by downing the balloon. (Financial Times)
A senior U.S. general responsible for bringing down a Chinese spy balloon said the military had not detected previous spy balloons before the one that appeared on Jan. 28 over the United States and called it an "awareness gap." Air Force General Glen VanHerck, head of U.S. North American Aerospace Defense Command and Northern Command, added that U.S. intelligence determined the previous flights after the fact based on "additional means of collection" of intelligence without offering further details. (Reuters)
North Korea’s Kim Jong-un orders military to prepare for war, expand combat drills: Pyongyang’s latest warning came a week after it threatened to counter US military moves with the ‘most overwhelming nuclear force’. It follows a record-breaking year in missile testing, amid signs that North Korea is preparing a massive military parade in the capital Pyongyang. (South China Morning Post)
North Korea stole more cryptocurrency assets in 2022 than in any other year and targeted the networks of foreign aerospace and defense companies, according to a currently confidential United Nations report seen by Reuters. "(North Korea) used increasingly sophisticated cyber techniques both to gain access to digital networks involved in cyber finance, and to steal information of potential value, including to its weapons programmes," independent sanctions monitors reported to a U.N. Security Council committee. (Reuters)
Tens of thousands of nurses and ambulance staff walked off the job in the U.K. in what unions called the biggest strike in the history of the country’s public health system. The walkout is the latest in a wave of strikes that has disrupted Britons’ lives for months, as workers — especially in the public sector — demand pay raises to keep pace with double-digit inflation. Teachers, train drivers, airport baggage handlers, border staff, driving instructors, bus drivers and postal workers also have all walked off their jobs in recent months to demand higher pay. (Associated Press)
Biden expected to visit Poland this month to mark first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Current planning underway is for Biden to visit Poland near the end of February. (NBC News)
The Road to a Supreme Court Clerkship Starts at Three Ivy League Colleges: The chances of obtaining a coveted clerkship, a new study found, increase sharply with undergraduate degrees from Harvard, Yale or Princeton. Each justice typically hires four law clerks per term. The study, which collected data on the 1,426 former clerks in the 40-year period ending in 2020, found that more than two-thirds of them attended just five law schools: Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Columbia and the University of Chicago. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., for instance, chose 58 clerks in the period covered by the study, 37 of them from Harvard or Yale. (New York Times)
Economy remains the public’s top policy priority, as 75% of Americans say strengthening the economy should be a top priority this year. Reducing the budget deficit is now a higher priority for the public than in recent years (now 57% vs. 45% a year ago). The change has come among members of both parties, though Republicans and those who lean to the Republican Party (71%) are far more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners (44%) to view cutting the deficit as a leading priority. And dealing with the coronavirus outbreak is now one of the lowest priorities for Americans – just 26% now say it should be a top priority for the president and Congress, but it was among the top priorities in both 2021 and 2022. (Pew Research Center)
Economy
Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds to 25% on Jobs, Business Outlook: Economists at Goldman Sachs said the risk of a US recession is receding amid a persistently strong jobs market and signs of improving business sentiment. The Goldman team led by Jan Hatzius cut its estimate for the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35%. By contrast, Bloomberg’s survey of economists last month pointed to a 65% chance of a downturn within that time. (Bloomberg)
Housing Market Shows Signs of Thawing: A decline in mortgage rates has more people interested in buying homes. Mortgage applications are up by about a quarter since the end of last year. A measure of signed real-estate contracts rose in December after six months of declines. And the number of people contacting real-estate agents to start the buying process has rebounded from a November low, according to brokerage Redfin Corp.’s internal data. Rates are still well above the 3% range from a year ago, but “the fact that they are a percent lower—no one is complaining about that,” said Michael Menatian, president of Sanborn Mortgage Corp. in West Hartford, Conn. “If anything, they are pleasantly happy.” (Wall Street Journal)
Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy called on Democratic President Joe Biden to agree to compromises and spending cuts, as the two remain deadlocked over raising the nation's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. McCarthy spoke on Monday before Biden is set to give the annual State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, aiming to get ahead of the president and reinforce his role as the leading congressional negotiator. (Reuters)
McCarthy, Scalise go to war with U.S. Chamber after group backed some Democrats in 2020 and 2022 elections. (CNBC)
Saudi Arabia has attracted more than $9 billion in investments in future technologies, including by U.S. giants Microsoft and Oracle Corp, which are building cloud regions in the kingdom, a government minister said on Monday. Saudi Minister of Communication and Information Technology Abdullah Alswaha said Microsoft will invest $2.1 billion in a global super-scaler cloud, while Oracle has committed $1.5 billion to build a new cloud region in Riyadh. (Reuters)
As Vietnam exports slow, survey shows consumer gloom on the rise: Vietnamese are resorting to side hustles as factory work slows and inflation rockets to the top of consumer concerns, according to a new survey reflecting fears about the global economy. The share of people relying on extra income sources rose to 34% in January, versus 20% in July, Infocus Mekong Research said. 27% of consumers expect the coming year will be worse than the last, up from 18% in July. The pessimism indicates "uncertainty in the market, fueled by the real estate bubble burst, high inflation" and impacts on earnings, Infocus said. (Nikkei Asia Review)
The Rothschild family is planning to take its investment bank, Rothschild & Co, private in a move that values one of the most renowned names in global finance at €3.7bn. Concordia, the Rothschilds’ family holding company that owns 38.9 per cent of the shares and 47.5% of the voting rights, said it was in talks with banks and investors to finance an offer for the Paris-listed group. (Financial Times)
Technology
It’s official: Google is working on a ChatGPT competitor named Bard. Google’s CEO, Sundar Pichai, announced the project in a blog post today, describing the tool as an “experimental conversational AI service” that will answer users’ queries and take part in conversations. The software will be available to a group of “trusted testers” today, says Pichai, before becoming “more widely available to the public in the coming weeks.” It’s not clear exactly what capabilities Bard will have, but it seems the chatbot will be just as free ranging as OpenAI’s ChatGPT. A screenshot encourages users to ask Bard practical queries, like how to plan a baby shower or what kind of meals could be made from a list of ingredients for lunch. (The Verge)
What Google’s AI Catch-Up Reveals: It was surely no coincidence that Google’s announcement came the day before Microsoft had scheduled a press briefing in Redmond, Wash., where it was expected to talk in more detail about its plans for OpenAI tech. Despite that little bit of one-upmanship, Microsoft appears to have gained an edge on Google, at least in public perception of AI. It says a lot about how sluggish Google has become that it has allowed itself to look like a follower in an area it should be dominating. Still, whatever the reason, the game is far from over. It’s very early days for this kind of AI. Once the public can play with Bard, Google may win back some credibility. The big question, of course, is whether ChatGPT ends up pulling search queries away from Google. We won’t know the answer to that for a long while. (The Information)
Microsoft announces an in-person press event at its Redmond HQ today at 1 pm ET, expected to focus mainly on its OpenAI partnership and ChatGPT for Bing. (The Verge)
Baidu Surges After Prepping ChatGPT-Style ‘Ernie’ Bot for March: The Chinese company is completing internal testing now Ernie will be one of China’s most prominent entries in AI race. (Bloomberg)
JDcom, China Mobile, and other Chinese retailers are discounting iPhone 14 Pro models by ~$118, an unusually steep price cut that suggests dwindling demand. (Bloomberg)
Vox Media has raised $100 million from Jay Penske, owner of numerous entertainment titles. Most interesting: Penske got a 20% stake in Vox, which means he invested at a $500 million valuation. That’s quite a discount on Vox’s previous valuation. Vox raised money at a peak valuation of $1 billion in 2015. Then last year it merged with Group Nine, which in 2019 had been valued at about $1 billion. (The Information)
Smart Links
It Now Takes Roughly 13 Years to Save for a Down Payment in New York — almost as bad as Austin. (Bloomberg)
Bed Bath & Beyond Strikes Investor Deal for Over $1 Billion to Avoid Bankruptcy. (Wall Street Journal)
Biden to Urge Quadrupling New 1% Tax on Stock Buybacks. (Wall Street Journal)
Dell plans to cut ~6,650 jobs, or ~5% of its global workforce. (Bloomberg)
AMC to price movie tickets based on seating. (Reuters)
That Zoom Meeting Really Could Have Been a Simple Phone Call. (Bloomberg)