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The World
Fears are growing that Russia could refuse to extend its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative after it expires on Monday. The deal has allowed grain to flow from Ukraine’s port of Odessa since last July, alleviating the global food crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has two demands to extend the deal. Reopen the pipeline of ammonia (a key ingredient in fertilizer) from Russia to the port, and let the Russian Agriculture Bank reconnect to the global payments network, SWIFT. Unfortunately, it's unlikely that either of these specific demands will be met by the deadline. (GZERO Media)
Wagner mercenary group head Yevgeniy Prigozhin has rejected an offer to his fighters to serve as a unit in Russia's army, President Vladimir Putin says. He told Kommersant newspaper that many group commanders had backed the plan to be led by a senior Wagner figure during recent talks in Moscow. He said Prigozhin's reply was "the guys do not agree with this decision". The talks were held just days after Wagner's aborted mutiny on 23-24 June that challenged Mr Putin's authority. Under the deal that ended the short-lived rebellion, the mercenaries were told they could join the regular Russian army or head to Belarus, a close ally of Russia. (BBC News)
The Thai parliament rejected opposition leader Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to become the country’s next prime minister. Pita, whose progressive Move Forward Party won the May 14 election, was 51 votes shy of the supermajority needed to clinch the premiership. It's been a hell of a week for the 42-year-old Pita, who campaigned on loosening the country’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, known popularly as "112" for the number of the article in the criminal code. Before losing the vote for the top job, election authorities tried to disqualify him as MP for running while he owned shares in a media company — doing that is illegal under a law that the ruling pro-army coalition passed in order to prevent former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, a media mogul, from ever returning to power. (GZERO Media)
The real Fed debate this month is over September. The July meeting’s outcome appears all but decided: Many officials have signaled support for a quarter-point increase that lifts interest rates to a 22-year high. The big question is what it would take to prompt another increase in the fall. Slower inflation last month raised the prospect that a July hike would be the last for this cycle. (Wall Street Journal)
JPMorgan Chase opened up second-quarter bank-earnings season Friday with a 67% profit jump, past $14 billion. (Wall Street Journal)
Citigroup profit drops 36% as trading slump casts cloud over earnings. (Reuters)
Wells Fargo profits beat forecasts as rates rise. (Financial Times)
After weeks of unsuccessful negotiations between the Screen Actors Guild - American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), the union representing about 160,000 of the entertainment industry’s American laborers began striking at midnight. Chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland said that while SAG-AFTRA — which represents thousands of actors, broadcasters, and performers of all kinds — has been working tirelessly to find an agreeable solution, the AMPTP — the trade association representing studios and their producers — has not made a good faith effort to reciprocate. Crabtree-Ireland noted the AMPTP’s refusal to craft a contract that fairly compensates performers who are being hurt financially by the shift to streaming as one of the bigger sticking points that led to the impending strike. (The Verge)
The Screen Actors Guild says it is battling the studios for control over the digital replicas of performers that could be used "for the rest of eternity". The studios counter that they have offered groundbreaking protections from misuse of images. The twin strikes will add to the economic damage from the writers walkout that started May 2, delivering another blow to the multi-billion-dollar industry struggling with changes to its business. Hollywood has not faced two simultaneous strikes since 1960. (Reuters)
Disney CEO Bob Iger calls actors and writers not “realistic” in contract demands, while the “Oppenheimer” cast exits the London premiere after SAG-AFTRA strike is called. (Los Angeles Times)
French Billionaire Pinault Is in Talks to Buy CAA Talent Agency in $7 Billion Deal. (Bloomberg)
Cerberus heatwave threatens new record temperatures for Europe: Southern Europe sweltered under a fierce heatwave on Thursday, with a warning that temperatures could hit record highs for the continent next week, raising fears about the impact on human health, crops and animals. Weather alerts were in place across Spain's Canary Islands, Italy, Cyprus and Greece, with the Greek authorities expecting temperatures to reach as high as 43 Celsius (109.4 Fahrenheit) or 44 Celsius on Friday or Saturday. (Reuters)
Weeks-long streaks of 100-plus-degree days break records across U.S. This year has seen almost more than 90 days with maximum temperatures exceeding 100 degrees at weather stations across the continental United States. (Washington Post)
California heat wave is life-threatening for homeless people and farmworkers. (Los Angeles Times)
Demand for power in Texas hit a record high for a second day in a row on Thursday as homes and business kept air conditioners cranked up during a lingering heat wave. (Reuters)
Aspartame, the popular artificial sweetener in diet sodas and chewing gums, may possibly cause cancer — but the risk appears to be very low for occasional consumers of these products, according to two reports released by the World Health Organization. The first report, penned by the WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), found “limited evidence” that aspartame may cause liver cancer. The second, from the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), reconfirmed the WHO’s previous recommendations that the sweetener is generally safe up until very large doses. (STAT News)
Economy
The investment chief at one of the world’s top hedge funds has warned the US battle with inflation is far from over, and bets on a rapid series of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year are premature. The comments from Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, pour cold water on this week’s global rally in stocks and bonds, which was sparked by relief at data showing annual US inflation had fallen to a more than two-year low of 3 per cent in June. (Financial Times)
US shoppers spent $12.7 billion online during Amazon.com Inc.’s 48-hour Prime Day, up 6.1% from a year ago but short of estimates for 9.5% growth, according to Adobe Inc. An increasing share of customers used “buy now, pay later” services, Adobe said, indicating shoppers are concerned about the economy. (Bloomberg)
Gig workers struggle: Even in a tight labor market where the lowest-wage workers are seeing outsized gains, gig drivers, who deliver food or people for companies like Uber or DoorDash, are having a hard time notching pay wins. A minimum wage of $17.96 an hour for food delivery workers in New York City was supposed to go into effect this week, but a last-minute lawsuit from the app companies put the law on hold. The new wage would more than double earnings for the 60,000 or so delivery workers. According to the city's estimates, they make below the $15 an hour minimum wage in the city, even with tips, and are also responsible for covering their expenses (an electric bike, health insurance, etc.). (Axios Markets)
The International Energy Agency lowered its 2023 global oil demand growth estimate for the first time this year. The change is small, but nonetheless a proxy for global economic challenges. IEA cited "persistent macroeconomic headwinds" in its monthly market snapshot — and noted that China's recovery is "losing steam." (Axios Markets)
Tumbling US dollar a boon to risk assets across the globe: Cooling U.S. inflation is accelerating a decline in the dollar, and risk assets around the world stand to benefit. The dollar is down nearly 13% against a basket of currencies from last year’s two-decade high and stands at its lowest level in 15 months. Its decline quickened after the U.S. reported softer-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday, supporting views that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its interest rate-hiking cycle. (Reuters)
Technology
The FTC has opened an expansive investigation into OpenAI, probing whether the maker of the popular ChatGPT bot has run afoul of consumer protection laws by putting personal reputations and data at risk. The agency this week sent the San Francisco company a 20-page demand for records about how it addresses risks related to its AI models, according to a document reviewed by The Washington Post. The salvo represents the most potent regulatory threat to date to OpenAI’s business in the United States, as the company goes on a global charm offensive to shape the future of artificial intelligence policy. (Washington Post)
ChatGPT can turn bad writers into better ones: A new study suggests that ChatGPT could help reduce gaps in writing ability between employees, helping less experienced workers who lack writing skills to produce work similar in quality to that of more skilled colleagues. Hundreds of college-educated professionals were asked to complete two tasks they’d normally undertake as part of their jobs, such as writing press releases, short reports, or analysis plans. Half were given the option of using ChatGPT for the second task. A group of assessors then quality-checked the results, and scored the output of those who’d used ChatGPT 18% higher in quality than that of the participants who didn’t use it. (MIT Technology Review)
Disney could soon sell its TV assets as Iger says business ‘may not be core’ to the company. (CNBC)
Drones Reach Stratospheric Heights in Race to Fly Higher, Longer: New military and commercial craft aim to go far higher than jumbo jets and stay there for months, offering more flexible alternative to satellites. (Wall Street Journal)
Finland's Nokia cut its annual outlook and Swedish rival Ericsson reported plunging quarterly profits, as a slowdown in consumer spending hit sales of telecommunications gear. (Reuters)
Smart Links
FDA panel votes in favor of the first over-the-counter birth control pill. (STAT News)
Elon Musk’s SpaceX nears $150 billion valuation after secondary share sale. (CNBC)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard steps down for role at Purdue. (Politico Pro)
New Turing test would see if AI can make $1 million. (MIT Technology Review)
Why US stocks may rally more than expected this year. (Goldman Sachs)
India's Chandrayaan-3 rocket blasts into space for Moon mission. (BBC News)