Know someone who would like this newsletter? Forward it to them.
The World
Ukraine reacted with skepticism to Russia's promise in negotiations to scale down military operations around Kyiv and another city as some Western countries expected Moscow to intensify its offensive in other parts of the country. Talks took place in an Istanbul palace more than a month into the largest attack on a European nation since World War Two. "Ukrainians are not naive people," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late on Tuesday. The general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said that Russia's promise to curtail military operations in some areas was "probably a rotation of individual units and aims to mislead." (Reuters)
Asia will become the ‘default market’ for Russian oil, IHS Markit Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin said. The West has punished Moscow for the invasion economically with the U.S. banning Russian crude, the U.K. planning to do the same and the European Union weighing similar measures. “I would have said five weeks ago Russia’s an energy superpower ... I think it’s still going to be an important player. But it’s going to be a reduced energy power compared to where it was before,” Yergin said. (CNBC)
As trade with Russia halts, countries turn to Canada: Canada produces many of the same commodities as Russia, such as oil, nickel, wheat and potash, and countries are lining up to broker deals. (Wall Street Journal)
Cathay Pacific is planning the world’s longest passenger flight by rerouting its New York to Hong Kong service over the Atlantic instead of the Pacific, the airline has said, in a new path that steers clear of Russia. The flight path will cover “just under 9,000 nautical miles” (16,668km, or 10,357 miles) in 16 to 17 hours. On Tuesday evening, Cathay listed on its website a New York-to-Hong Kong flight for 3 April – a non-stop journey it said would stay in the air for 17 hours and 50 minutes. (Agence France-Presse)
Hong Kong migration to Canada has soared to levels unseen since 1998, as ‘domino effect’ draws workers, students, returnees. More than 22,500 Hongkongers received Canadian permanent residency, work or study permits in 2021, up 256% from 2019. About a third received open work permits created in the wake of the national security law, but data shows the exodus spread to other visa categories. (South China Morning Post)
US health spending growth decelerated in pandemic's second year: National health spending grew an estimated 4.2% in 2021, reaching almost $4.3 trillion, according to annual spending projections released by the CMS. That's a significant deceleration from the 9.7% growth rate seen in 2020, as the federal government ramped up spending to combat COVID-19, despite the increasing demand for patient care last year. The CMS projects health spending will grow at an average rate of 4.9% between 2022 and 2024, and 5.3% between 2025 and 2030, to reach nearly $6.8 trillion by 2030. (Healthcare Dive)
One of the largest and fastest-growing oil production sites in the US is emitting far more methane than previously measured. Oil and natural-gas production is a significant source of the powerful greenhouse gas, butan aerial survey of the Permian Basin in New Mexico revealed more leakage than even the highest estimates had suggested to date. (MIT Technology Review)
U.S. health officials authorized a second COVID-19 booster dose of the two most commonly used COVID-19 vaccines for people age 50 and older, citing data showing waning immunity and the risks posed by Omicron variants of the virus. Meanwhile, the BA.2 variant is now the dominant variant in the U.S. amid signs of rising caseloads in parts of the Northeast. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal)
Economy
Businesses across the US are broadening pay rises as inflation gallops at the fastest pace in 40 years, with employees struggling to match their wages with consumer prices. Retailers, airlines and resorts are boosting starting pay to attract recruits and offering company-wide bumps to staff’s base pay. Some 92% of businesses plan to increase employee pay this year, up from 85% in 2021, according to compensation analysis firm PayScale. (Financial Times)
4.4 million in U.S. quit or changed jobs in February as turnover remained high. (Washington Post)
Brand loyalty takes a hit from inflation and shortages. Well-known brand names and flashy ad campaigns are no longer enough to command U.S. consumers’ loyalty in grocery stores. (Wall Street Journal)
US yield curve inverts in possible recession signal: A closely watched recession signal flashed red on Tuesday, as investors fretted that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation will bring about a sharp slowdown in US economic activity. Two-year Treasury note yields rose above those of the 10-year for the first time since August 2019, inverting a portion of the yield curve monitored closely by Wall Street and policymakers. Inversions typically signal malaise about the economy’s long-term growth prospects and have preceded every US recession in the past 50 years. Typically, a recession has followed in the two years after an inversion of this measure of the yield curve. (Financial Times)
78% of high-growth startups fail on diversity: About 40% of high-growth private companies didn’t have a woman on their board of directors in 2021, according to a new study by the board diversity organization Him for Her and Crunchbase. Worse still, a whopping 78% didn’t have any women of color on their boards. While the numbers are frustrating, they are an improvement from 2020 and 2019, when 50% and 60% of high-growth startups lacked a single woman on their boards. n 2021, women held 14% of board seats, up from 11% in 2020, while women of color had just 3%—a stat that remained unchanged from the year before. The figures pale in comparison to the Fortune 500, where women secured 26.5% of board seats in 2020 and women of color held 5.7%. (The Broadsheet)
Women will now be included in the Rooney Rule hiring process at the NFL, which requires diverse candidates among interviewees for coaching and front office jobs. Teams won't be required to interview women for the position, but a female candidate will now count toward the rule's diverse slate requirement. (The Athletic, The Broadsheet)
Home-price growth accelerated in January: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 19.2% as the supply of homes for sale fell to a new low. (Wall Street Journal)
Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is abandoning his use of aggressive activist campaigns to publicly shame company boards and executives to bring about change and bolster share prices, he said in an annual report to investors. Pershing Square Capital Management’s founder said that he planned to be a less vocal shareholder, buying large blocks of publicly traded companies and working behind the scenes with companies on any concerns or strategies. (Financial Times)
Robinhood says it will add four hours to its trading day, which will stretch from 7am to 8pm ET, in a push to eventually offer 24/7 trading; stock jumps 25%+. (CNBC)
Signs of stress deepen in the office real estate market: More than two years after COVID-19 upended the world of work, signs of a slow-motion crackup in office real estate are emerging. Fresh commercial real estate data suggest that working from home is becoming a permanent feature of the American economy, a development that has major implications for everything from housing prices to transportation policy to municipal finance. Vacancy rates continue to climb in major markets across the country, and signs of distress in loans backed by office buildings appear to be growing. Barclays analysts noted last week that the share of office mortgages that have been assigned to either "watchlists" of loans showing signs of being in trouble, or "special servicing," where loans with missed payments are sent, has hit more than 21%. That's the highest since the financial crisis. (Axios)
Technology
Environmental groups pressure bitcoin community to lower energy use: A consortium of environmental groups launched a campaign on Monday seeking to change bitcoin’s code to decrease its energy use, which has grown substantially in the past few years. Greenpeace USA, Environmental Working Group and others will run ads in media outlets such as the New York Times, Politico and The Wall Street Journal highlighting bitcoin’s environmental impact and advocating for change. Some of the ads are aimed at prominent bitcoin backers, such as Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk, Block Inc. founder Jack Dorsey and Fidelity Investments Chief Executive Abby Johnson. (Wall Street Journal)
The latest crypto hack may be the largest yet. The gaming-focused Ronin Network announced a loss of over $625 million in USDC and ether (ETH). The exploit affected Ronin Network validator nodes for Sky Mavis, the publishers of the popular Axie Infinity game, and the Axie DAO. (CoinDesk)
Lionel Messi signed a three-year $20M+ agreement to promote digital fan token service Socios[dot]com; Socios says Messi will help with a World Cup campaign. (Reuters)
Does social media make teens unhappy? It may depend on their age. A large study in Britain found two specific windows of adolescence when some teenagers are most sensitive to social media. Analyzing survey responses of more than 84,000 people of all ages in Britain, the researchers identified two distinct periods of adolescence when heavy use of social media spurred lower ratings of “life satisfaction”: first around puberty — ages 11 to 13 for girls, and 14 to 15 for boys — and then again for both sexes around age 19. (New York Times)
Meta halts plans for a large Dutch data center on rising opposition from the government. (Bloomberg)
Live Event
Today, 7:30 pm: Ukraine, China, and the U.S.: Can War be Avoided? Kevin Rudd, 26th Prime Minister of Australia, in a conversation on the future of the U.S.-China relationship moderated by Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government. (Watch: Harvard Kennedy School)
Smart Links
3 ‘must-read’ books by women to read in 2022, according to female CEOs. (CNBC)
Goldman to acquire robo-adviser NextCapital in latest push to diversify. (Financial Times)
FTC sues TurboTax owner Intuit for advertising tax software as ‘free’. (CNBC)
NFL considers creating a streaming service of its own. (The Athletic)
OnlyFans has held talks with multiple SPACs about a merger to take it public. (Axios)
Where living comes cheapest. (Statista)