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The World
Manchin keeps Dems guessing on their megabill, as the White House scrambles to salvage $1.75tn spending bill by Christmas: Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is telling colleagues the expanded child tax credit is both the most underpriced item — and biggest inflation-driver — in President Biden’s $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan. After speaking with Biden, Manchin said he was still "engaged" in discussions. And as he left the Capitol, the key Democratic senator made clear he wasn't ready to commit to voting for or against a bill that is still coming together behind closed doors. (Axios, Politico, Financial Times)
Northeast states deploy soldiers and home tests in Covid battle: New York is requiring masks in all indoor places across the state. Massachusetts is sending free home Covid-19 test kits to its poorest areas. Maine has activated its National Guard to help hospitals. In the U.S. Northeast, officials are trying every tactic to control a winter surge that has emergency rooms overflowing and infection rates soaring. (Bloomberg)
California is ordering a statewide mask mandate for indoor public spaces to go into effect on Wednesday. (Los Angeles Times)
The surge of cases in Ontario, which accounts for almost 40% of Canada's population of 39 million people, has prompted the provincial government to suspend easing of restrictions that were planned to be lifted ahead of the holiday season. (Reuters)
New Omicron infections in the UK are running at 200,000 a day, dwarfing the number of officially confirmed cases. (Financial Times)
Russia said it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same. The warning from Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov raised the risk of a new arms build-up on the continent, with East-West tensions at their worst since the Cold War ended three decades ago. (Reuters)
Macron and Orban want Europe to have its own army: President Macron smoothed over differences with Viktor Orban, the man he has defined as his European adversary, and won Hungarian support for French goals for EU defense, nuclear power and agriculture. (The Times)
European gas futures surged 11% after German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could not be permitted in its current form because it did not comply with EU law. Baerbock said the three parties that make up the new German government — Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats — had agreed that all energy projects, including Nord Stream 2, must be in accordance with EU energy legislation. (Financial Times)
Abu Dhabi’s powerful Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has accepted Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s invitation to visit Israel, his office said Monday, as the latter wrapped up the first-ever trip by an Israeli premier to the United Arab Emirates. Bennett instructed officials to begin making preparations for bin Zayed’s visit. No timeframe was given for the trip. (Times of Israel)
Taiwan ally Guatemala fends off Beijing overtures: Beijing has put pressure on Guatemala to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing and has offered it coronavirus vaccines as an inducement. But Guatemala, the biggest of the economies that still recognizes the island territory, which Beijing regards as part of China, intended to remain loyal to Taipei even as its neighbors changed allegiance, Guatemala President Alejandro Giammattei told the Financial Times. Following Nicaragua’s decision on Thursday to cut ties with Taiwan, the island territory has only 14 diplomatic allies left. Beijing has been lobbying heavily in the region and over the past four years has persuaded El Salvador, Panama and the Dominican Republic to abandon Taiwan. Honduras’ president-elect Xiomara Castro, who takes office in January, promised in her election manifesto to switch to China. “We are the last country in which China has not succeeded in inserting itself,” Giammattei said. (Financial Times)
The barrage of tornadoes that tore through six states killed at least 74 people in Kentucky, officials said on Monday, as those fortunate enough to survive unscathed opened their doors to victims whose homes were destroyed, and hundreds of the suddenly homeless took refuge in shelters. The death toll was likely to rise as 109 people remained missing, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said. (Reuters)
Amazon rethinks warehouse cell phone ban in wake of tornado. (Bloomberg)
Scientists have discovered a series of worrying weaknesses in the ice shelf holding back one of Antarctica’s most dangerous glaciers, suggesting that this important buttress against sea level rise could shatter within the next three to five years. Until recently, the ice shelf was seen as the most stable part of Thwaites Glacier, a Florida-sized frozen expanse that already contributes about 4% of annual global sea level rise. Because of this brace, the eastern portion of Thwaites flowed more slowly than the rest of the notorious “doomsday glacier.” But new data show that the warming ocean is eroding the eastern ice shelf from below. Satellite images taken as recently as last month show several large, diagonal cracks extending across the floating ice wedge. (Washington Post)
A powerful 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Indonesia, triggering a tsunami warning. (Nikkei Asia Review)
Economy
5 ways real estate will be greener in 2025: 93% of real estate investors think the pandemic has been a wakeup call to put ESG on the top of the agenda, while 83% of occupiers believe the link between corporate real estate and sustainability is a board-level priority. The 5 areas that will drive change: 1) More businesses are writing carbon reduction into real estate strategies; 2) Adopting net zero carbon targets is moving into the mainstream; 3) Building credentials matter; 4) Shifting focus to retrofitting and refurbishment; 5) Using technology to drive progress. (JLL Research)
The U.S. solar industry will grow 25% less than previously forecast during 2022, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie. The lowered projections are due to supply chain constraints and rising costs for developers. The U.S. solar industry installed 5.4 gigawatts of new capacity during 3Q21, a 33% year-over-year increase. (CNBC)
Danish toymaker Lego is to invest more than $1 billion in building a factory in Vietnam to respond to increased demand in Asia and to make its supply chain more resilient following a series of shocks from COVID-19. (Nikkei Asian Review)
S&P 500 buybacks hit record after Covid pullback: Stock buybacks returned to their pre-pandemic trend this year and are currently on track to reach a new all-time high in 2021. S&P 500 companies collectively repurchased $234.5 billion in shares in 3Q21, exceeding the previous record of $223 billion set in 4Q18, the biggest year for stock buybacks so far. (Statista)
Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman calls for the Fed to raise interest rates soon. (CNBC)
Bankers are set for the biggest bonuses since the financial crisis. (The Times)
Technology
Vox Media is in advanced talks to merge with Group Nine Media, a deal that would unite two of the biggest players in digital media. The companies are discussing an all-stock transaction that would give Vox Media 75% ownership of the combined company, with the remaining 25% going to Group Nine Media. Vox Media Chief Executive Jim Bankoff would helm the company. Vox Media, owner of media properties including tech-focused website the Verge, current-events site Vox.com and sports-focused SB Nation, has been expanding. In August, it agreed to acquire cocktail website Punch to deepen its coverage of food and drinks. Group Nine Media, whose brands include news outlet NowThis, lifestyle site Thrillist and animal-focused the Dodo, has also been an active consolidator in the media space. (Wall Street Journal)
Why Vox and Group Nine shouldn’t celebrate their merger: Digital media firms should go into the lemonade business, given how good they are at turning the lemons their businesses represent into their liquid versions. We got news that Vox Media and Group Nine Media are in “advanced” talks to merge. In a note to staff, Vox CEO Jim Bankoff pronounced the deal “one of the most exciting and significant announcements in our company’s history.” Translation: We’ve been growing slowly for a long time and this is the best way we can hope to achieve any scale. Consider this: According to The Wall Street Journal, which broke the news of the merger talks, the combined Vox–Group Nine will have revenue next year of $700 million. Applying the multiple at which BuzzFeed shares are now trading to this new company suggests it will be worth close to $1 billion. Guess what—that’s roughly Vox’s peak valuation achieved back in 2015. That implies Vox will not have grown in value in six years despite having absorbed New York magazine and its associated websites in an all-stock deal a couple of years ago. (The Information)
A number of recognizable tech stocks “have fallen to earth”: Pinterest shares, which on Monday fell 3% to $36.04, have in the past week been trading at their lowest point since July of last year. The stock had rallied to a high of $89.15 in February, thanks to blockbuster ad growth. Zoom Video shares have lately been trading at their lowest point since May of last year. On Monday, they closed at $184.57; they had reached as high as $568 in October of last year. Palantir is trading at less than half its high from January, when it reached $39. Monday it closed at $18.40. Roku is trading around $222, roughly half its high point of $469 reached in February. (The Information)
Amazon ramps up plans for Instacart-like service in U.S., Europe. (The Information)
Live Event
Today, 1 pm: Encouraging Smart Drinking: Conversations with the CEO of AB InBev, the world's largest beer company. Dr. Myriam Sidibé, M-RCBG Research Fellow at HKS, and a leading expert on behavior change for public health campaigns, will lead a conversation with Michel Doukeris, CEO of AB InBev, the world's largest beer company. This conversation about the role of beer brands in promoting more responsible, smart drinking will be followed by a panel discussion with corporate executives in the alcohol industry, and experts in corporate social responsibility. (Register: Harvard Kennedy School)
Smart Links
Elon Musk is Time Person of the Year. (Time)
What could possibly go wrong? These are the biggest economic risks for 2022. (Bloomberg)
Tech workers arm themselves with salary data. (Bloomberg)
Does ‘reopening’ even make sense anymore? (Protocol)
How a $6 Bass Pro Shops hat became a fashion trend. (Wall Street Journal)