The World
43% of economists don’t see the U.S. gaining back lost jobs until 2023, citing the continued coronavirus spread, and uncertainty surrounding stimulus package and the election outcome. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remained elevated at 840,000, as the labor market flashes signs of a slowdown and more layoffs. The NY Fed’s John Williams said that if the Bank needs to deliver more stimulus, one area many look to, its bond buying, is already in aggressive use at an "extremely high level." Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi had two conversations yesterday — one in the morning and another in the evening — about a stand-alone airline industry bill — though two Republican senators pushed back against more airline aid. In TX, the unemployment rate remains nearly double what it was pre-pandemic. (WSJ Economist Survey, Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal-2, Washington Post, Reuters, Texas Tribune)
The W.T.O. will be run by a woman for the first time after it was announced that the final choice will be between South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee and Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Meanwhile, the European Commission is advancing its plans to issue common debt and is poised to tap the bond market this month for the first time on a large scale to fund its coronavirus-relief programs. Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany should return to a balanced budget from 2022. In Norway, an escalating labor strike could soon wipe out almost 25% of its oil and gas production. (The Guardian, Nikkei Asian Review, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNBC)
The W.H.O. is waiting for Beijing to approve an international team to be sent to China to investigate the pandemic origins, while Eli Lilly joined Regeneron and requesting U.S. authorization for emergency use of an experimental antibody-based treatment that could be the first to treat less severe cases. Elsewhere: Germany recorded a 43% jump in new infections, as officials warn it could spread “out of control;” Russia’s Health Ministry recommended that people stay at home this weekend because of a sharp rise in new cases; Brazil hit 5 million cases amid second wave fears; France recorded a new all-time high of nearly 19,000 cases in 24 hours; UK rail travel plummeted to a 170 year low; and Sri Lanka closed key state offices as virus outbreak surge. (South China Morning Post, Wall Street Journal, Deutsche Welle, Reuters, France 24, The Times, Associated Press)
The New England Journal of Medicine weighed in on a U.S. presidential election for the first time in 208 years, joining The Lancet and Science to become the third major academic research journal to urge voters to oust President Trump. Meanwhile, nearly a third of hospitalized Covid-19 patients experienced some type of altered mental function — ranging from confusion to delirium to unresponsiveness — in the largest study to date of neurological symptoms among coronavirus patients in an American hospital system. (Washington Post, New England Journal of Medicine, New York Times)
Is Beijing trying to drain Taiwan’s air force? The PLA has mounted thousands of incursions into the island’s defense zone this year, forcing Taiwan’s military to use more than 8% of its budget responding to the missions. Meanwhile, fraught relations between Washington and Beijing are, more so than in any other flashpoint, raising the possibility of war in Taiwan, as an update in U.S. thinking may be required. (South China Morning Post, Los Angeles Times, Politico)
The UK joined France and Germany in threatening sanctions against Russia for the poisoning of Alexey Navalny, saying evidence that the opposition leader was poisoned was now "undeniable.” Meanwhile, concurrent crises in Belarus, Central Asia and the Caucasus region have blindsided the Kremlin, are undermining President Putin’ influence as he loses his footing in Russia’s backyard. (BBC News, New York Times, Wall Street Journal)
Israel’s cabinet and Knesset will vote on the UAE peace agreement next week, as the seven-page deal avoids any topics that may be controversial, such as a Palestinian state or American weapons sales to Abu Dhabi. (Jerusalem Post)
Confidence in U.S. election accuracy matches a record low: Only 59% of American voters are confident that votes will be accurately cast and counted nationwide, while Republicans' confidence (44%) is at a record low for either party. Postal service delays and fraudulently cast votes are seen as "major" problems. (Gallup)
63% of U.S. adults say the government has the responsibility to provide health care coverage for all, up slightly from 59% last year. When asked how the government should provide health insurance coverage, 36% say it should be provided through a single national government program, while 26% say it should continue through a mix of private and government programs. This is a change from about a year ago, when nearly equal shares supported a “single payer” health insurance program (30%) and a private/public mix (28%). Politically, 54% of Democrats and Democratic leaners favor a single national government program to provide health insurance, up from 44% last year. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 66% say the government does not have the responsibility. (Pew Research Center)
Economy
The number of available Manhattan apartment rentals tripled in September, with nearly 16,000 apartments sitting empty. The vacancy rate, typically 2% to 3%, is now nearly 6%, as landlords are forced to offer ever-higher incentives and ever-lower rents to entice tenants. Listing discounts have tripled, to 4.5%, and landlords are offering an average of two months rent to new tenants. Prices are also dropping: The median net effective rents — those that include concessions — fell 11% to $3,036. Meanwhile, real-estate investors have a mountain of money looking for a home. Lately a lot of it is ending up in suburban single-family houses. (CNBC, Wall Street Journal)
European dealmaking and fundraising bounced back in 3Q20, as investors closed 364 deals, corresponding to $19bn, a 58% increase from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, Texas Teacher Retirement System made four new alternative investment commitments totaling $420 million in September. Harvard University’s endowment spun out its natural-resources team into an independent investment firm that will take over the endowment’s portfolio of orchards, farms and plantations. (Private Equity News, Pensions & Investments, Wall Street Journal)
The gig economy is on the ballot: Prop 22 is shaping up to be California's most expensive ballot question ever, and its outcome could upend a gig economy business model that's attracted hundreds of billions of investment dollars. Gig companies Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, and Instacart (which today reported raising $200 million in its latest round, valuing the company at $17.7 billion) have together spent at least $170 million to back Prop 22, which is favored in most recent polling. (Axios, Quartz, Reuters)
If it passes: Gig economy companies could continue classifying delivery workers and ride-hail drivers as contractors, while providing some new benefits like minimum earnings, health care subsidies, and vehicle insurance.
If it fails: Gig economy companies could be required to abide by a California law that effectively would cause them to treat such workers as employees.
A subtle, optimistic Wall Street shift: Many investors believe the higher Biden climbs in polls, the lower the chance of a contested presidential election. An election with no clear winner and the fading prospects of another round of stimulus are two of the biggest threats to market stability. Meanwhile, though markets aren’t moving clearly with the polls as in 2016, investors should focus on two things that the market likes and understands: tax cuts and government stimulus. (New York Times, Wall Street Journal)
46% of consumers view companies involved with voter registration efforts more favorably, and 58% said the same for those that give workers Election Day off. Meanwhile, in a study of brands based on emotional connections during the pandemic: Apple beat out Amazon and Disney, as well as Google, YouTube, Walmart, and Netflix to be the “most intimate brand during COVID.” (Morning Consult, 9to5Mac)
Technology
Mobile usage set record highs in 3Q20: Consumers downloaded 33 billion new apps globally and spent a record $28 billion in apps — up 20% YoY. They also spent more than 180 billion collective hours each month using apps, an increase of 25% YoY. (TechCrunch)
Oracle appeared to have a better day than Google at the Supreme Court. Breyer was the only Justice who appeared obviously in favor of Google's claims by the hearing's end. Justices Roberts, Gorsuch, Sotomayor and Alito were all more skeptical of Google's argument. Gorsuch told Google's lawyer that phone makers like Apple "have come up with phones that work just fine without engaging in this kind of copying." Gorsuch also suggested that the case could be returned to the appeals court without a definitive ruling. (Protocol)
Amazon’s real reason for postponing Prime Day, which usually occurs in July: With online shopping hitting new sales records during the pandemic, there was no lull this year, prompting Amazon to bump Prime Day to two days next week. For Amazon, this likely means the holiday shopping season will start more than a month earlier than normally does, which could avert a meltdown of its fulfillment network as the holidays near. (The Information)
DoorDash is giving employers a way to feed work-from-home employees. Through DoorDash for Work, employers can fund employee memberships to DashPass, eliminating delivery fees on orders from thousands of restaurants. Mt. Sinai offered free subscriptions to 42,000 healthcare employees; other customers include Charles Schwab, Hulu and Stanford Research Park. (TechCrunch)
Slack seeks to be “the central nervous system” of businesses — where every important thing, whether a message from the boss or a server crash alert — appears first. Pending innovations: Slack Stories (like Instagram, but for Business), meant for status updates or an asynchronous standup meeting. Push-to-talk audio also may be coming; channels would have a voice-ready space, and users could jump in and out like a conference room. (Protocol)
Smart Links
New rules for H-1B Visas: What you need to know. (Wall Street Journal)
Apple engineer who created autocorrect builds his first app — a word game. (TechCrunch)
Chain restaurant ads linked to weight gain in adults. (MedPage Today)
Study finds preserved brain material in 2,000 year old Vesuvius victim. (Phys.org)
Eddie Van Halen’s 20 greatest solos. (Rolling Stone)
Scientist maps CO2 emissions for entire U.S., detailing economic sector, fuel and combustion process. (Northern Arizona University)