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The World
The American Enterprise Institute concludes that VP Biden's economic plan would raise $2.8 trillion over the next decade from higher taxes on businesses, corporations and the wealthiest households. AEI projects the higher taxes would reduce economic growth by a relatively modest 0.16 percent. In 2021, Biden’s proposals would increase taxes, on average, for the top 5% of households and reduce taxes on households in the bottom 95%. Separately, Georgetown University finds that Biden’s free public college plan would pay off within 10 years. Meanwhile, only a quarter of workers who were laid off or furloughed at the height of the pandemic lockdown actually received timely unemployment benefit. (AEI, Finance 202, CNBC, Harvard Kennedy School)
The European Union and United Kingdom’s Brexit talks are snagged on the three key issues of fishing, level playing field and governance of their agreement. Meanwhile, the Brexit fight increasingly is about Paris and Berlin, as Macron and Merkel don’t see eye to eye when it comes to the UK’s future relationship with the EU. (Reuters, Politico EU)
Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett faces Day 2 of questioning at her Senate confirmation hearing. Panel chairman Sen. Lindsey Graham asked Barrett to describe “severability.” She said the doctrine generally requires that courts strike down a single provision of a law and retain the balance of it: “The presumption is always in favor of severability.” That is the key issue in next month’s ACA case. Barrett did not say how she would vote, but the general tenor of her summary suggested that she was skeptical of the maximalist arguments made by Republican officials. On Day 1 of questioning, Barrett said she would not be “a pawn” of Trump. (Reuters, New York Times)
16 states added more new cases than in any other weeklong stretch, as uncontrolled outbreaks in the U.S. Midwest and Mountain West pushed the case curve to its highest level since August. Wisconsin surpassed 1,500 deaths in its worst day yet, as a WI judge blocked the governor's order limiting capacity. Meanwhile, the White House has embraced the declaration to allow spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and vulnerable — arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine. The W.H.O. head called herd immunity “immoral.” Europe overtook the U.S. in new cases as restrictions tighten there. The Netherlands ordered a partial lockdown and mandated masks in public spaces amid one of the EU’s worst infection rates. (New York Times, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, New York Times-2, BBC News, Wall Street Journal, Politico EU)
Eli Lilly joined Johnson & Johnson in pausing Covid-19 trials for possible safety issues, as U.S. drug inspectors uncovered serious quality control problems at an Eli Lilly plant that is ramping up to manufacture one of two promising drugs. Russia approved a second vaccine after preliminary trials. Israel’s Ambassador to India said a 30-second coronavirus detection test being developed by India and Israel should be ready in “a matter of days.” (Washington Post, Reuters, Reuters-2, Jerusalem Post)
China President Xi Jinping praised Shenzhen as economic model for a country at an “historic crossroad,” laying out a plan to build Shenzhen into a global rival to Hong Kong. Xi said Shenzhen would develop its finance sector and international trade capabilities — Hong Kong’s economic strengths — in a speech marking the Shenzhen economic zone’s 40th anniversary. ( South China Morning Post, Nikkei Asian Review, Washington Post)
US-Russian nuclear arms control talks sunk into confusion after Moscow quickly rejected as a “delusion” an American claim that there was “an agreement in principle” between Trump and Putin. At the UN, China, Russia and Cuba won seats on the human rights council; Saudi Arabia lost. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo urged Saudi Arabia to consider normalizing relations with Israel as he met with the Gulf country’s foreign minister, also saying that Washington supports a “robust program of arms sales” to it. In Argentina, anti-government demonstrators have taken to the streets amid economic and coronavirus challenges, while Argentina’s president says no peso devaluation is coming. (The Guardian, Jerusalem Post, Associated Press, Buenos Aires Times, Bloomberg)
Economy
Europe-based buyout firms are betting big on impact investing, as the sector has gone from a niche discipline just a few years ago to a $715bn market globally. (Private Equity News)
Goldman Sachs was boosted by sizzling markets in 3Q20, as a trading surge saw its profits double and pushed Goldmans’ profitability to its highest level since 2010. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s 3Q20 profit fell 16%, while Wells Fargo earnings dropped 56%, as costs mount and the pandemic hurts loans. (Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters)
3Q20 saw a 7.6% increase in exits for venture capital-backed startups as highly-valued software companies like Snowflake and Unity went public. The IPO rush delivered $103.9 billion in exit value, making it the second most lucrative quarter on record for IPOs behind only 2Q19, which saw Uber, Pinterest and several others debut on public stock exchanges. (The Information, Pitchbook)
U.S. producer prices increased 0.4% in September, more than expected amid a surge in the cost of hotel and motel accommodation, leading to the first year-on-year gain since March. Meanwhile, the IMF sees debt soaring to 100% of global GDP. (CNBC, Nikkei Asian Review)
Luxury home demand is soaring, underscoring how the pandemic has intensified wealth disparities in the U.S. High-end sales jumped 42% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to a report from brokerage Redfin. That’s the largest jump dating back to 2013. Sales of mid-priced homes climbed just 3%, while affordable purchases declined 4%. (Bloomberg)
Increasing numbers of Americans want government-run health care — and through a single national program. 63% of U.S. adults say the government has the responsibility to provide health care coverage for all, up slightly from 59% last year. 36% say it should be provided through a single national government program, while 26% say it should continue through a mix of private and government programs. This is a change from about a year ago, when nearly equal shares supported a “single payer” health insurance program (30%) and a private/public mix (28%). Politically, 54% of Democrats and Democratic leaners favor a single national government program to provide health insurance, up from 44% last year. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 66% say the government does not have the responsibility. (Pew Research Center)
Technology
Big tech companies have been snapping up NYC office space: Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple together have leased or purchased 1.6 million square feet of office space in the city, adding to big developments such as the 1.7 million square feet Google acquired last year. That’s enough space collectively for the companies to bring on 15,000 more employees. The tech giants already have hired more than 2,600 people in New York this year. (New York Times, The Information)
Just 1% of the vacuum cleaners, immersion blenders and other household products listed on Amazon last year were sold by the retailer, with the rest coming from other merchants who use its platform. Yet 33% of all sales in that category were by Amazon. Those were among the figures published in a little-noticed chart, based on internal Amazon data, that was part of the House Judiciary Committee’s antitrust report. (The Information)
Facebook banned anti-vac ads, following its efforts to limit Holocaust denial, voter intimidation, and the QAnon mass delusion. (Buzzfeed News)
Dropbox is becoming a Virtual First company: Remote work (outside an office) will be the primary experience for all employees and the day-to-day default for individual work. Changes include — 1. Location Strategy: Employees will have flexibility to relocate outside of locations where we currently have offices; 2. “Non-Linear Workdays”: Setting core collaboration hours with overlap between time zones, and encouraging employees to design their own schedules beyond that; 3. Employee Experience: Redesigning from IT to HR, including an open-sourced Virtual First Toolkit. (Dropbox)
iPhone 12 vs. iPhone 11 vs. iPhone XR vs. iPhone SE: Comparing Apple’s full lineup, with the four new iPhone 12 designs side by side with the three older models still on sale. Meanwhile, the change that has most critics talking: MagSafe. Apple showed off its own magnetic case and chargers, plus a wallet attachment. Belkin's working on a charger and a car mount, too. Other sensors like NFC and a magnetometer are items accessory makers can use for new cases, tap-to-do-something tags, and more. The mobile accessory business is worth tens of billions of dollars annually. The 12 will definitely be a win for charger manufacturers. (Wall Street Journal, Protocol)
Smart Links
43% of U.S. population listen to spoken word audio daily, averaging two hours per day. (National Public Media)
Scientists uncover new Parkinson’s disease clues via chemical & electrical brain signal measurements. (MIT News)
Heart attack uptick attached to 2016 presidential election. (Harvard Chan School/Kaiser Permanente)
Puppy love: Pet stocks soar in pandemic. (Wall Street Journal)
One American, two Russians blast off to International Space Station. (Reuters)
Pluto’s mountains are snowcapped, but not for the same reasons as on Earth. (CNRS)
Public trust in scientists globally often runs higher on the left than the right of the political spectrum. (Pew Research Center)