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The World
The U.S. military is poised to secure expanded access to key bases in the Philippines on the heels of a significant revamp of U.S. force posture in Japan. The expansion is part of a broader push in the Indo-Pacific to buttress U.S. force posture, reinforce alliances and deter China. (Washington Post)
Taiwan warnings show US military is preparing for war, Chinese analysts say: A warning by a US air force commander that a military conflict with mainland China could come as early as 2025 implies the American military is gearing up combat readiness over Taiwan, according to analysts, who said the People’s Liberation Army would also boost its deterrence capabilities. They add that the risk of conflict between Chinese, US militaries has increased as both sides boost deterrence capabilities. (South China Morning Post)
The Biden administration has stopped providing US companies with licenses to export to Huawei as it moves towards imposing a total ban on the sale of American technology to the Chinese telecom equipment giant. (Financial Times)
Russia warns U.S.: the end of nuclear arms control may be nigh. Russia said the last remaining pillar of bilateral nuclear arms control could expire in 2026 without a replacement due to what it said were U.S. efforts to inflict "strategic defeat" on Moscow in Ukraine. Both Russia and the U.S. still have vast arsenals of nuclear weapons which are currently partially limited by the 2011 New START Treaty, which in 2021 was extended until 2026. (Reuters)
The U.S. will not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has sought in its fight against Russia, President Biden said. Ukraine planned to push for Western fourth-generation fighter jets such as the F-16 after securing supplies of main battle tanks. (Reuters)
Finland insisted it still wants to join NATO alongside Sweden, dismissing a suggestion from Turkey that it could enter the alliance alone amid an apparently intractable stand-off between Stockholm and Ankara. The two Nordic states have long made defense and security decisions in unison and both submitted their formal requests for NATO membership on the same day last May. (The Times)
NATO chief calls on South Korea to provide military aid to Ukraine. (Financial Times)
Jair Bolsonaro, the former president of Brazil, has applied for a six-month visitor visa to remain in the US as his legal standing in his home country grows perilous. Bolsonaro’s application was received by US authorities on Friday, according to his lawyer, Felipe Alexandre, who has advised the former president not to leave the country while it is being processed — a period that could last several months. “I think Florida will be his temporary home away from home,” said Alexandre. “Right now, with his situation, I think he needs a little stability.” (Financial Times)
At least 150 flights between Hong Kong and Japan will be axed in the coming month as the country continues to impose limits on planes from the city, while tour operators are expecting more cancellations in the coming weeks. Cathay Pacific and HK Express announced on Monday they would each scrap up to 15 flights per week between February 3 and March 2 to comply with the Japanese government’s restrictions on Hong Kong arrivals. (South China Morning Post)
The British army is in “urgent need” of more money as defense sources warned that the military may not be able to protect the country against aggression from Russia. James Heappey, the armed forces minister, admitted there had been “serial underinvestment” in the army and that the force needed more cash to protect British interests. (The Times)
President Biden informed Congress that he will end the twin national emergencies for addressing Covid-19 on May 11, as most of the world has returned closer to normalcy nearly three years after they were first declared. The move to end the national emergency and public health emergency declarations would formally restructure the federal coronavirus response to treat the virus as an endemic threat to public health that can be managed through agencies’ normal authorities. (Associated Press)
U.S. airlines cancel over 1,000 flights over winter storm: More than 1,000 Monday flights into or out of the U.S. have been canceled due to a severe winter storm, with about half of those coming from Southwest Airlines. (Reuters)
Economy
The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out: The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing. Retail purchases have fallen in three of the past four months. Spending on services, including rent, haircuts and the bulk of bills, was flat in December, after adjusting for inflation, the worst monthly reading in nearly a year. Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell last year to their lowest level since 2014 as mortgage rates rose. The auto industry posted its worst sales year in more than a decade. Now the forces that helped keep spending high are unwinding, while inflation remains elevated. The share of monthly income Americans set aside for savings was 3.4% in December, down from 7.5% a year earlier and from a record high in April 2020. Credit-card interest rates have been rising, and Fed officials have signaled that they plan an additional quarter-percentage point increase to the central bank’s benchmark rate this week. (Wall Street Journal)
The Nasdaq suffered its biggest drop in a month as investors turned cautious going into an eventful week that includes the Fed’s rate decision and a slew of big-tech earnings. Declines in Apple and Microsoft weighed on both the indexes as investors await earnings from companies including Alphabet and Meta Platforms this week. (Bloomberg)
Central banks set to lift interest rates to 15-year highs as investor jitters grow. (Financial Times)
The I.M.F. upgraded its economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024 in its closely watched World Economic Outlook report, pointing to resilient consumers and the reopening of China’s economy as among the reasons for a more optimistic outlook. (New York Times)
MBA programs reach record women's enrollment: top MBA programs got one notch closer to achieving gender parity—with some schools even seeing more women enroll than men. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, a top-ranked MBA program by Fortune, was the first school to see more women than men admitted in 2021 for its class of 2023, and the program continued with gender parity in the following class, as well. Women accounted for more than 41% of enrollment in full-time MBA programs at the 56 top U.S. business schools that are members of the Forté Foundation, an organization focused on career development and business education for women. That’s a massive jump from the 27% the organization saw two decades ago when it first started tracking enrollment records. Of the schools reporting, the ones with the highest percentage of women students were George Washington University (59%), Johns Hopkins University (52%), and Wharton (50%). (The Broadsheet)
The German economy unexpectedly shrank in 4Q22, with GDP falling 0.2%, which experts say was largely driven by high natural gas prices. (Financial Times)
Foreign tourist spending in Japan has rebounded to close to pre-COVID levels, as credit card use surged after the easing of entry restrictions in October. The Tokyo Disney operator expects an eightfold profit jump as fans return. (Nikkei Asia Review)
China’s debt-based interest payments top a trillion yuan for first time, raising concerns about financial risks. (South China Morning Post)
As many work from home, office landlords roll out entertainment to entice tenants. Farmers markets, concerts, art shows and other attractions for office tenants aren’t completely new, but they have taken on urgency as landlords and executives of companies occupying their buildings strive to get workers enthused about showing up. (Los Angeles Times)
Technology
Apple could be on track to release a foldable iPad as early as next year, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. “I’m positive about the foldable iPad in 2024 and expect this new model will boost shipments and improve the product mix,” he tweeted early Monday. Kuo expects it to be joined by a revamped iPad Mini, due to enter mass production in early 2024. (The Verge)
Denver Bets on Rental Cars to Boost EV Adoption: A new partnership with Hertz will allow residents to try electric vehicles before they buy. It will also provide the city with data on where chargers are needed. (City Lab)
Mercedes-Benz is the first to bring Level 3 automated driving to the US: The company’s Drive Pilot system is approved for use in Nevada, but only at speeds up to 40 mph. You can play Tetris while cruising down the highway, but make sure your face stays visible to the camera, or the system disengages. (The Verge)
Just a week after telling employees that it would evaluate a public offering over the next year, payments giant Stripe is moving quickly on a deal to raise as much as $3 billion from its existing investors. The talks, which have heated up in recent days, are likely to value the company at between $55 billion and $60 billion. That’s a steep discount to its last private fundraising, which valued the payments software company at $95 billion. (The Information)
It’s only January, and we’re already at 58K tech layoffs for the year: More than 58,000 workers in U.S.-based tech companies have been laid off in mass job cuts so far in 2023. That number includes IBM’s 3,900-person cut and SAP‘s 3,000-person layoff announcements last week. (Crunchbase)
Smart Links
Medicare Wants to Claw Back $4.7 Billion From Private Health Insurers. (Bloomberg)
Ford cuts price of Mustang Mach-E as EV industry competition heats up. (Financial Times)
Amazon Fresh Hikes Grocery Delivery Fees. (The Information)
Showtime to Merge With Paramount+ Streaming Service This Year. (Bloomberg)