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The World
Brazil's presidential election appeared to be heading for an Oct. 30 run-off, as far-right President Jair Bolsonaro's strong initial showing seemed to have ended leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's hopes of a first-round victory. (Reuters)
For months, pollsters and analysts had said that President Jair Bolsonaro was doomed. He faced a wide and unwavering deficit in Brazil’s high-stakes presidential race, and in recent weeks, the polls suggested he could even lose in the first round, ending his presidency after just one term. Mr. da Silva received 47.9 percent of the votes on Sunday, versus 43.7 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro, with 97 percent of the ballots counted. Mr. Silva needed to exceed 50 percent to be elected president in this first round. Mr. Bolsonaro had claimed for months that the polls were underestimating his support, using his enormous rallies as evidence. Yet every trusted poll showed him behind. On Sunday, it was clear that he was right. (New York Times)
Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has warned of “severe consequences for Russia” if Vladimir Putin were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, amid escalating rhetoric from Moscow and its allies. “The nuclear rhetoric is dangerous. It’s reckless,” Stoltenberg told NBC’s Meet The Press on Sunday. Any use of nuclear weapons would “change the nature” of the Ukraine conflict”, he added. (Financial Times)
We must go nuclear in Ukraine, Chechen warlord tells Putin. Razman Kadyrov leads backlash over latest Russian defeat. (The Times)
British Prime Minister Liz Truss could delay the vote on cutting the 45% rate of tax. Members of parliament will not be asked to approve the decision until they have learned how it will be funded in the Chancellor's medium-term plan on Nov. 23. (Reuters)
China’s leadership will discuss and calibrate the country’s strategy for the next five years and beyond at the Communist Party’s upcoming national congress as it grapples with a “complex and arduous environment at home and abroad”, according to People’s Daily. In its National Day editorial, the party mouthpiece said the twice-a-decade congress would be critical for China to deliver the second of President Xi Jinping’s “Two Centenaries” goals – to return the nation to the forefront of global powers by 2049, when it celebrates its centenary. (South China Morning Post)
Ian will 'financially ruin' homeowners and insurers: The storm inundated the homes of thousands of Floridians who don't have flood insurance, exposing weaknesses in the nation's effort to address the rising costs of extreme weather. (Politico)
A broken insurance market threatens Florida and its star governor: What may be Florida’s most destructive hurricane is threatening to swamp the state’s property insurance market, posing a stiff challenge to a star governor with national political aspirations. Even before Hurricane Ian made landfall on Wednesday, the state’s property insurance market was buckling. Six companies had already fallen into insolvency this year as underwriting losses exceeded $1bn for the second consecutive year. Insurers, in turn, have been exiting the state and curtailing renewals, leaving homeowners with dwindling options for coverage and soaring prices. “The homeowners insurance market in Florida has already seen escalating losses, increases in premiums, and insolvencies before there was a hurricane. Now with Ian, especially if this storm leads to litigation, it makes me wonder if the market can sustain this,” said Nancy Watkins, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman. (Financial Times)
Supreme Court Trust, Job Approval at Historical Lows: 47% of U.S. adults say they have "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of trust in the judicial branch of the federal government that is headed by the Supreme Court. This represents a 20-percentage-point drop from two years ago, including seven points since last year, and is now the lowest in Gallup's trend by six points. (Gallup)
Economy
The Opec+ oil alliance is planning a substantial cut in production to prop up falling prices, according to people close to the discussions, as the group prepares to meet in person for the first time since March 2020. The oil group, which is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to discuss a production cut that could total more than 1mn barrels a day at the meeting on Wednesday. This is by far the largest since early in the pandemic and equivalent to more than 1 per cent of global supplies. The move threatens to boost oil prices at a time much of the world is fighting to bring energy costs down and could create a potential rupture with the US, where President Joe Biden has been trying to lower fuel prices for motorists ahead of crucial midterm elections next month. (Financial Times)
Oil jumps more than 3% as OPEC+ mulls cuts of up to 1 million barrels per day. (Reuters)
The inventory glut that dragged down US retailers over the past two quarters may only be getting worse. For shoppers, that means better deals. Inventory levels have increased sequentially and are at the highest level relative to sales since the start of the pandemic, UBS Group AG analysts led by Jay Sole said in a recent note. Nike Inc. said Thursday that its North American inventories grew by a whopping 65% in the fiscal first quarter ended Aug. 31, well above the growth that set off alarm bells earlier this year at companies such as Walmart Inc., Target Corp. and Gap Inc. (Bloomberg)
Texas anti-ESG law endangers financial stability, says Sarah Bloom Raskin. Ex-Fed official says blacklisting of companies over climate policies encourages risky investment. (Financial Times)
Japanese manufacturers' business mood worsened in the three months to September, a central bank survey showed on Monday, bolstering views that the weakening yen and its inflationary impact on business costs undermined a fragile economic recovery. Adding to the gloom, fears of a global economic slowdown cloud the outlook for the export-reliant economy, which is still just emerging from the coronavirus pandemic. (Reuters)
Technology
Google Translate app no longer available in China, marking US tech giant’s latest retreat from world’s biggest internet market. The popular app has been inaccessible to its tens of millions of users across mainland China since Saturday. Users are redirected to a generic search bar, which suggests bookmarking the app’s Hong Kong webpage that is also inaccessible on the mainland. (South China Morning Post)
Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than forecast in the third quarter because of an “increasingly challenging” environment for transport and logistics, the company said. The Texas-based electric vehicle maker said it delivered 343,830 vehicles in the September quarter — a record, reflecting 42 per cent growth, but still missed forecasts of 359,000, according to Refinitiv. A year before, Tesla beat estimates with growth of 73 per cent. (Financial Times)
A look at the fake online traffic business, as some ad exchanges look the other way and advertisers are embarrassed to admit they purchased fraudulent inventory. (Wired)
Tencent is no longer China's most valuable company after its shares fell 64% since January 2021, wiping $623B in market cap, more than any other firm globally. Meanwhile, Tencent is resetting its M&A strategy, seeking to own majority, or even controlling, stakes in overseas targets, mainly in European gaming companies. (Bloomberg, Reuters)
Smart Links
Cold weather warning adds to Europe’s gloom as it battles energy crisis. (Financial Times)
Investors Aren’t Betting on Post-Midterm Rally. (Wall Street Journal)
Courts could throw state marijuana markets into disarray. (Politico)
ABC, ESPN and Other Disney Channels Pulled From Dish and Sling in Carriage Dispute. (The Wrap)
Average UK property costs seven times the typical wage. (The Times)