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The World
Economic, Education, and Opportunity Divide: Biden-won counties are responsible for a staggering 70% of the nation’s economic output, higher than the 64% share claimed by counties that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden counties saw faster business and wage growth over the last two years before the pandemic hit. Further, more educated locations voted even more Democratic in 2020 than they did in 2016. Counties where more jobs are “routine” (i.e., at greater risk from automation) voted strongly for Trump in 2016 and even more so in 2020. Similarly, counties with a mix of occupations that are projected to grow faster voted even more strongly for Biden in 2020 than Clinton in 2016. Counties with faster job growth and lower unemployment before the pandemic swung more toward Biden than other counties. And counties with milder job losses and smaller jumps in unemployment during the pandemic also swung more toward Biden. In other words, Trump performed better in areas experiencing continued economic decline. Conclusion: The presidential contest revealed a country increasingly riven between more urban, more diverse, better-educated, faster-growing areas and their rural mirror images. (Brookings, Economic Innovation Group, New York Times, Finance 202)
First, some good news: COVID deaths in ICUs seem to be dropping — although the data are not clear-cut. Physicians cite hard-won experience, changing demographics and reduced strain on hospitals are all possibilities. Meanwhile, Hungary will become the first in EU to trial Russia’s Covid vaccine. However, new U.S. cases set another record, topping 100,000 for the 9th straight day, while Americans are less amenable to another lockdown, with only 49% saying they would abide compared to 67% in late March/early April. New York will impose new curfews on restaurants, bars and gyms; El Paso (TX) is bringing in mobile morgues; Illinois hospitals delay elective surgeries; and Wisconsin is hurtling toward a 'tipping point' when hospitals won't be able to save everyone who is sick. (Nature, Financial Times, Gallup, CNBC, New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
Biden said the US-Japan defense treaty applies to the disputed Senkaku Islands, an early signal to allies that he plans a hard line against Beijing, as Britain said China had broken its main bilateral treaty on Hong Kong by imposing new rules to disqualify elected legislators and cautioned that it would consider sanctions as part of its response. In Poland, thousands of largely unmasked marchers defied restrictions to stage a nationalist march during its annual Independence Day procession, leading to outbreaks of vandalism, fighting and anti-semitism. In Ireland, four Olympic swimming pools’ worth of raw sewage is being pumped into water near towns and villages every day. Waste water produced by 35 towns and villages was found to flow into the water completely untreated. (Nikkei Asian Review, Reuters, The Times, The Times-2)
Drone strikes — targeting Armenian and Karabakh soldiers and destroying tanks, artillery and air defense systems — provided a huge advantage for Azerbaijan in the 44-day war in the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and offered the clearest evidence yet of how battlefields are being transformed by unmanned attack drones rolling off assembly lines around the world. (Washington Post)
Greece is preparing a law that will offer a hefty tax incentive to workers who move there from abroad — a 50% exemption on income earned here for seven years — with the aim of creating more professional jobs and reversing its crisis-era brain-drain. (Reuters)
An appeals court upheld a decision that found Harvard University's admissions process does not violate the federal civil rights law Title VI. The ruling marks a defeat for nonprofit Students for Fair Admission, which argued in a 2014 lawsuit against Harvard that Asian American applicants were held to a higher admission standard compared to Black and Hispanic students. A Supreme Court appeal is expected. (Axios)
Syracuse University, the University at Albany, and Niagara University are taking their operations remote, with Syracuse moving up its timeline after a recent spate of new cases. (Syracuse.com)
Economy
Forecasters expect the U.S. economic recovery to remain on track. The survey also shows that the amount of stimulus the economy needs to recover is more modest than many lawmakers have suggested. Forecasters see an unemployment rate of 6.7% at the end of this year, down from 7.8% in last month’s survey. They now expect GDP to contract 2.7%, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 3.6% contraction they predicted last month. (Wall Street Journal)
U.S. mining companies are moving fast to align themselves with Joe Biden’s climate change agenda, saying the lithium, copper and other metals they produce can help the president-elect achieve his ambitious goals to slash carbon emissions and electrify the nation’s automobiles. (Reuters)
Central London office rents have been resilient, according to half-year results from two listed property owners — reporting 0.7% and 1% declines in 1H20. Still, more pressure on rents is likely in inner London. Take up of new office space over the six months was almost two-thirds below the city’s 10-year average. (Wall Street Journal)
The “wisdom tour”: After three decades in business but before becoming CEO of Nike, John Donahoe took a year-long sabbatical to figure out what to do with the rest of his life. Among his findings: “attitude’s everything,” use your wisdom, and hang out with “young people.” (Fortune)
Technology
Facebook, Google and Pinterest are ‘top picks’ to lead 20% growth in online advertising in 2021, according to Morgan Stanley, which raised its 2020 and 2021 ad forecasts by 8% and 15%, respectively, expecting 11% year-over-year growth in 2020 and 20% year-over-year growth in 2021. (CNBC)
Alibaba posted sales of $75 billion during the world’s largest shopping binge, Singles Day, wrapping up an annual frenzy of Chinese consumption with help from live streaming. Sales during the Singles’ Day festival easily surpassed 2019’s $38 billion official tally. Alibaba’s Tmall platform logged 583,000 orders in one second at its peak. (Yahoo Finance, Nikkei Asian Review)
Mozilla, Stripe, Transferwise, Etsy, Dropbox and Spotify have formed the “Challenger Group” to sway European policy. The group formed because Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook were dominating European debates about Internet regulation, leaving out the voices of smaller companies—despite the fact that those policies can have a very different impact on them. (The Information)
Smart speaker-maker Sonos is getting into subscription services: The company unveiled Sonos Radio HD on Thursday, a $7.99 per month, commercial-free radio service that offers access to exclusive artist stations, uncompressed HD audio and the ability to skip songs. (Protocol)
Instagram redesigned its home screen for the first time in years. Meanwhile, Sony PS5 sold out online, while the gaming boom played into Tencent's hands with an 89% profit rise. (The Verge, Reuters)
Smart Links
Daniel Loeb’s Third Point gained nearly $400m on U.S. election call. (Financial Times)
Remote work is ‘here to stay’: Former IBM CEO. (CNBC)
Deutsche Bank proposes a 5% ‘work from home’ tax. (CNBC)
MBA applications rise for the first time in five years. (Wall Street Journal)
Apple offers employees $500 a day in bonuses to go to China for work trips. (The Information)
Trump eyes digital media empire to take on Fox News. (Axios)
Chipotle opens its first ‘digital only’ restaurant. (CNN)
2 chances to Learn More:
Today, 2:15 pm: The Future of the Special Relationship: A Conversation with British Ambassador to the United States, Dame Karen Pierce. (Harvard Belfer Center)
Today, 4 pm: The Future of U.S. Trade Policy. (Harvard Kennedy School)
How the U.S. stock market has treated new presidents. (Reuters)