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The World
Russia has boosted the fund that cushions its sanctions-hit economy with $3.4bn in additional oil and gas revenues thanks to rising energy prices since the start of its war with Ukraine, as it edges closer to its first debt default since 1998. Moscow said on Sunday that it would direct an additional Rbs273.4bn ($3.4bn) to its rainy day fund, of which Rbs271.6bn comes from oil and gas revenues it received in the first quarter of this year. (Financial Times)
Russia will take legal action if the West tries to force it to default on its sovereign debt, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper, sharpening Moscow's tone in its financial wrestle with the West. "Of course we will sue, because we have taken all the necessary steps to ensure that investors receive their payments," Siluanov told the newspaper in an interview. (Reuters)
Finland and Sweden set to join NATO as soon as summer: Washington is banking on the move that will stretch Russia’s military and enlarge the western alliance from 30 to 32 members as a direct consequence of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. US officials said Nato membership for both Nordic countries was “a topic of conversation and multiple sessions” during talks between the alliance’s foreign ministers last week attended by Sweden and Finland. (The Times)
Hundreds of thousands of professional workers, many of them young, have left Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, accelerating an exodus of business talent and further threatening an economy targeted by Western sanctions. Those leaving the country include tech workers, scientists, bankers and doctors, according to surveys, economists and interviews with emigrants. They are departing for countries including Georgia, Armenia and Turkey. More are expected to follow. (Wall Street Journal)
Shanghai Covid lockdown spurs race to stockpile food across China. Reports of food shortages in the country’s commercial capital have prompted a flurry of interest in what essentials to hoard. Multiple survivors guides are circulating online and some bloggers are even selling survivalists guides. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is on track to ease social-distancing rules as Covid cases fall below 2,000. (South China Morning Post)
Shanghai residents question human cost of China's COVID quarantines. (Reuters)
Setting up a rematch of the last French election, Emmanuel Macron (27.6%) and Marine Le Pen (23%) came out on top in the first round of the presidential election. The outgoing president, who arrived first, declared “to reach out to all those who want to work for France” in order to gather around him all sensitivities. The candidate of the National Rally Marine Le Pen estimated that "all those who did not vote for Macron are destined to join this rally." (Le Monde)
Opposition politician Shehbaz Sharif submitted his nomination to be Pakistan's next prime minister to the legislature, his party said, after incumbent Imran Khan lost a no-confidence vote in parliament after nearly four years in power. The younger brother of three-times prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz, 70, has led a bid by the opposition in parliament to topple former cricket star Khan, and he is widely expected to replace him following a vote today. (Reuters)
JetBlue Airways is planning to trim its summer schedule to avoid flight disruptions as it scrambles to hire ahead of what executives expect to be a monster peak travel season. “We’ve already reduced May capacity 8-10% and you can expect to see a similar size capacity pull for the remainder of the summer,” Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue’s COO and president, said in an email to staff. (CNBC)
U.S. banks have a streak of increasing deposits as a group every year since at least World War II. This year could break it. Over the past two months, bank analysts have slashed their expectations for deposit levels at the biggest banks. The 24 institutions that make up the benchmark KBW Nasdaq Bank Index are now expected to see a 6% decline in deposits this year. Those 24 banks account for nearly 60% of what was $19 trillion in deposits in December, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (Wall Street Journal)
Economy
Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Fed. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago. (Wall Street Journal)
The largest US banks are set to report their biggest slowdown in investment banking revenue in years next week, as the dealmaking engine that helped propel Wall Street to record profits last year sputters. Banks started the year braced for a slowdown in dealmaking activity following a blockbuster 2021 supported by markets and widespread stimulus measures. 1Q21 in particular was a lucrative three months in which banks minted fees from a boom in initial public offerings of special purpose acquisition companies. (Financial Times)
Overseas money is starting to pull out of Chinese markets after the risk of investing in autocratic countries was starkly highlighted by sharp drops in Russia's currency and securities prices following its invasion of Ukraine. (Nikkei Asia Review)
Goldman Sachs is offering its network of former partners, who range from tech executives to prime ministers, exclusive access to a new investment vehicle that will put money into the Wall Street firm’s private market funds. The so-called 1869 fund, which takes its name from the year Goldman was founded, invests across multiple private funds managed by the firm’s asset management division, according to five people familiar with the matter. Former partners who invest in the fund of funds receive discounted management and performance fees, with the total amount an individual can put in capped at $5mn, the people said. (Financial Times)
Citigroup claws its way back into Saudi Arabia: In recent years, Citi has participated in the country’s biggest listings, including the offering of oil giant Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco. It obtained a license in 2018 for investment banking, hired local staff and opened an office. It now plans to deepen its activity by applying for a full banking permit. That would put it on par with competitors such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. in offering banking and payments to international companies in Saudi Arabia and could lead to lucrative work with the kingdom’s biggest institutions. “They paid their dues,” said a senior Saudi official. “They were in the penalty box long enough. They’re back in the game.” (Wall Street Journal)
Egypt's urban inflation accelerates to 10.5% in March. (Reuters)
It’s hard out there for tech companies with open roles. Tech services company Commit interviewed 200 senior tech leaders of U.S. startups and found: It takes a long time to recruit. More than 68% of companies surveyed spent a month or more recruiting a single developer. 20% of new hires at tech startups have to be replaced. Furthermore, 68% of companies surveyed are replacing more than 10% of their tech hires. They might be more open to remote hiring as a result of the tight talent market, and they’re not mad about it. 75% of those surveyed are seeing an increase in productivity from their remote staff. (Protocol)
Technology
Apple originally had big plans to use WWDC 2022 as the launch event for its long-in-the-works mixed-reality headset. But I wrote a few months ago that Apple would likely miss that date for the hardware’s debut and would instead announce the product at the end of this year or next year. That indicates that the headset will launch during the iOS 16 cycle, which kicks off in June and will last until iOS 17 comes in the fall of 2023. But it may also suggest that Apple could preview some of its upcoming augmented and virtual reality software earlier. Perhaps we could even get a peek at the headset’s rOS, short for reality operating system. In any case, there could be other hardware news. Apple is gearing up to launch some new Macs in the next few months. (Bloomberg)
The global chip shortage’s effect on current products is clear in just about every consumer market in the developed world, reflected in half-empty car dealerships and shuttered manufacturing lines. COVID gets a lot of the blame—and it sure didn’t help—but the fact is, the proliferation of gadgets in everyday life had been a slow-moving train that was long on track to disrupting the semiconductor supply/demand balance. The end, unfortunately, is not near. Yuh-Jier Mii, R&D chief at the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., recently told Spectrum he personally believes it will take two to three years to get enough new fabrication facilities on line to adequately address the shortfall. (IEEE Spectrum)
Two of the world's richest people are pitching in ideas to tackle the issue of homelessness, suggesting that Twitter convert its headquarters to a shelter home. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos backed an idea put forth by Elon Musk, who recently became Twitter's largest shareholder, to convert the social networking firm's San Francisco headquarters into a homeless shelter as few people are working there during the pandemic. (Reuters)
Elon Musk suggested in a series of tweets changes to the premium Twitter Blue service — including a cheaper subscription price, banning ads and offering the option to pay in cryptocurrency. The Tesla chief executive tweeted that all Twitter Blue subscribers "should get an authentication checkmark" that's different from the verification one for official accounts and public and media figures. (Axios)
Smart Links
Cash buyers and few listings: Metro Atlanta home prices rise 20%. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
How to tackle Learning & Development in the new world of work. (Protocol)
What is an oligarch, really, and what is their influence on Russia? (Washington Post)
Russia-Ukraine war is having a limited impact on Europe vacation bookings. (CNBC)
These are the 10 best and worst states for working from home. (CNBC)