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The World
The Federal Reserve signaled it would begin steadily raising interest rates in mid-March, its latest step toward removing stimulus to bring down inflation. Chairman Powell dodged a question on whether the Fed could raise rates at every subsequent meeting this year — which would amount to seven increases in 2022 — instead saying that the central bank would be “humble and nimble” and “guided by the data”. Last month, the central bank’s policymakers released projections that implied just three rate rises this year.(Wall Street Journal, Financial Times)
Justice Stephen G. Breyer, the senior member of the Supreme Court’s three-member liberal wing and a persistent if often frustrated advocate of consensus as the court moved sharply to the right, will retire upon the confirmation of his successor, people familiar with the decision said, providing President Biden a chance to fulfill his pledge to nominate a Black woman. (New York Times)
The European Central Bank has warned lenders with significant Russian exposure to ready themselves for the imposition of international sanctions against Moscow if it invades Ukraine. Sanctions would raise significant risks for the international banks with large Russian exposure, including Citi of the US, France’s Société Générale, Austria’s Raiffeisen and Italy’s UniCredit. (Financial Times)
As sky-high energy prices inflict financial hardship, German adults are split down the middle over calls to cancel the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russia again invades Ukraine, with 37% in favor and 37% opposed. Pluralities of adults in NATO partner countries such as Canada, France, Italy and the UK support canceling the project, but many are unsure. Similarly, 28% of Germans said NATO should agree to Russia’s demands to promise Ukraine won’t join the security pact — the highest share among all countries polled — even as 30% said NATO should hold its ground. (Morning Consult)
Chinese President Xi Jinping met virtually with leaders from five Central Asian countries and offered $500m in aid, as Beijing rushes to counter Moscow's growing sway in the region. (Nikkei Asia Review)
CA Gov. Gavin Newsom and state lawmakers reached an agreement to again require employers to provide workers with up to two weeks of supplemental paid sick leave to recover from COVID-19 or care for a family member with the virus. The legislation would apply to all businesses with 26 or more employees. (Los Angeles Times)
Only 40% of US. population has gotten boosters, but more than 40% of U.S. adults have ordered free Covid tests from the government. (USA Today, Forbes)
Republicans’ faith in science is falling as Democrats rely on it even more, with a trust gap in science and medicine widening substantially. 48% of Americans say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the scientific community. 64% of Democrats say that, compared with roughly half as many Republicans, 34%. The gap was much smaller in 2018, when 51% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans had high confidence. The poll also found a gap emerging on confidence in medicine, driven primarily by increasing confidence among Democrats. 45% of Democrats said they had a great deal of confidence in medicine, compared with 34% of Republicans. (Associated Press)
Economy
The shifting digital health investment landscape in 2022: Signs point toward another historic year in VC investment. U.S.-based digital health startups brought in almost $30 billion in 2021, almost doubling the total investment the year prior. Investors and market watchers are wary on making firm forecasts that 2022 will break 2021's record, but most are eyeing the year through rose-colored glasses. Market watchers see digital therapeutics, personalized medicine, provider-focused infrastructure and mental health and chronic condition management as particularly ripe for continued investment as the pandemic moves into its third year. (Healthcare Dive)
Bank of America has started a review of its Hong Kong business to identify workers who can be relocated to Singapore as severe pandemic control measures have forced global businesses to re-evaluate their operations in the Chinese territory. (Financial Times)
BofA increases base pay to keep top-tier bankers, as managing directors see base pay rise to $500,000 from $400,000. (Bloomberg)
Robinhood will report 4Q21 results today, and eyes will be on the money the company earns from crypto trading. In the 3Q21, Robinhood reported $51 million in revenue from crypto transactions, a 78% decline from the $233 million it made during 2Q21. But the company could see a 4Q21 turnaround spurred by boosts in trading volume. After all, bitcoin and ether hit all-time highs in November, which may have attracted investors and encouraged more crypto transactions on Robinhood. It will also be important to track the cryptocurrencies that drive trading revenue. (The Information)
Criminals laundered $8.6B worth of cryptocurrency in 2021, up from $6.6B in 2020 but below $10.9B in 2019; 47% of the funds went to exchanges, 17% went to DeFi. (Chainalysis)
Where are banks finding borrowers? On the car lot. Big banks are pushing deeper into auto lending. Bank of America said last year was a record for auto-loan originations. Wells Fargo posted three straight quarters of records and said the fourth quarter was up 77% from a year earlier. Ally Financial said 2021 was its biggest year for auto lending since 2004. U.S. banks increased their auto-loan balances by 12% over the course of 2021. The banks increased total loans on their books marginally last year. (Wall Street Journal)
Technology
Apple is working on a service that will let businesses accept payments directly on their iPhones without any extra hardware, based on Mobeewave's tech. (Bloomberg)
Apple reached its highest ever market share in China and became China's top vendor in 4Q21 after six years with 23% market share. (Counterpoint Research)
You can be a huge fan of Neil Young but still acknowledge that his decision to pull his music off Spotify, in a protest over its hosting of Joe Rogan, probably won’t cause millions of people to cancel their Spotify accounts. Given the likely age of the 76-year-old rocker’s typical fan, though, let’s assume Spotify CEO Daniel Ek isn’t losing sleep over this specific dispute. Ek may be worrying more about what comes next. In particular, what happens if another, younger artist—or a group of artists—with a bigger fan base among younger generations—follows suit? Considering how often artists complain about the money they make from Spotify, it doesn’t seem they have that much to lose. That situation would force Ek to decide what is more important: the company’s original music business or its podcasting expansion. While there’s a freedom of speech principle that Ek may want to uphold, there’s also a business issue that’s much more acute. (The Information)
The word "creators" shows up 52 times in Susan Wojcicki's annual letter detailing YouTube's priorities for 2022. (The only word that shows up more often is "YouTube.") Over and over, Wojcicki made clear that the thing she cares about most — the true secret to keeping YouTube growing and rich and earth-shatteringly successful — is keeping creators happy on YouTube. How do you keep creators happy? One word: money. Wojcicki noted that there are now 10 ways for creators to make money directly on YouTube, and that products like Super Chat and Channel Memberships are bringing in more money than ever. Monetization excellence gives YouTube enormous power. It can enter practically any space it wants and immediately become a power player, because it's writing bigger checks to creators. In that sense, there's no serious YouTube competitor out there. (Source Code)
Can CNN’s hiring spree get people to pay for streaming news? (New York Times)
CBS News bets on local with new streaming strategy. (Axios)
Disney says Disney+ will launch in 42 countries and 11 territories this summer, including South Africa, Turkey, Poland, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. (The Hollywood Reporter)
Bill Ackman bought a Netflix stake worth $1.1bn after the stock sell-off, suggesting other investors are ignoring long-term potential of streaming group. (Financial Times)
What Generation Z wants from financial technology: Three patterns are shaping how Gen Z is pushing fintech to evolve: an aversion to credit-card debt; an expectation that brands will reflect their personal values; and a desire for community, networking and self education within financial services that make investing a fun, recreational activity. So far, the efforts are starting to win over the young generation. A June 2021 survey by EY found that 51% of Gen Z consumers name a fintech company as their most trusted financial brand, while only 23% name a national bank. recent survey from the Bank Administration Institute found that only 17% of Gen Z-ers say a credit card is their preferred payment method, compared with 46% of millennials and 47% of baby boomers. (Wall Street Journal)
Microsoft is planning to launch a public preview of its Android apps for Windows 11 next month, alongside some taskbar improvements and redesigned Notepad and Media Player apps. The taskbar improvements include a mute and unmute feature and likely the ability to show a clock on secondary monitors. Both were missing at the launch of Windows 11, but Microsoft is still working on improving the taskbar further to bring back missing functionality like drag and drop. (The Verge)
Smart Links
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation plans massive giving expansion; annual spend jumps to $6.7bn amid governance overhaul following co-chairs’ divorce. (Financial Times)
WTO arbiter sides with China in tariff fight with U.S. (Wall Street Journal)
Tesla warns of supply chain constraints as it reports record profit. (Financial Times)
San Jose passes first U.S. law requiring gun owners to get liability insurance and pay annual fee. (CBS News)
FEMA to start tracking race of disaster-aid applicants to examine if aid is distributed inequitably. (Scientific American)