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The World
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen will boycott several meetings of the powerful Group of 20 nations this week to protest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a conference in Washington emerging as a key test for world leaders who have condemned the war. (Washington Post)
China’s state media warned the EU that an extended war in Ukraine could lead to its break-up, while assuring Moscow of Beijing’s unwavering support. “Is Europe prepared to see a ten-year war on its own continent? Imagine what would happen to Europe: It would turn into a bleeding decade,” an editorial in the state-controlled Global Times argued. It accused Washington and NATO of prolonging the war by supplying Ukraine with economic and military aid, “cheering Ukraine on to fight a ten-year war”. (The Times)
China confirmed the signing of a Solomon Islands security pact, as Beijing says the agreement ‘does not target any third party’ and is intended to promote peace and stability. Meanwhile, the Russian Navy conducted drills in the East China Sea to practice defending oil tankers from potential Western seizure amid sanctions over Ukraine war Drills show Russian concern for oil cargo and a willingness to display its advanced air-defense capability. (South China Morning Post)
Baby bust: Pandemic accelerates fall in China’s birth rate. Before the pandemic, China was already the centre of the global baby bust — but the fall in birth rates has accelerated in the two years since the virus first struck. China’s birth rate — the number of births per 1,000 people in the total population — fell by just under 30 per cent between 2019 and 2021, the largest two-year fall since the country’s Great Famine between 1959 and 1961. Just 10.6mn babies were born in China in 2021, the lowest number recorded since the Communist party took power in 1949. (Financial Times)
Emmanuel Macron has consolidated his lead over Marine Le Pen as France’s presidential election enters its final week, according to polls, suggesting harsher scrutiny of the far-right challenger’s plans may be shifting the race’s dynamic. Six days from the runoff that will decide who occupies the Élysée Palace for the next five years, all 16 polls carried out since the first-round vote on 10 April have put the incumbent ahead, by between seven and 12 percentage points. (The Guardian)
Federal officials stopped enforcement of a federal mask mandate in transportation settings after a federal judge struck down the requirement, raising public health concerns and prompting several airlines to announce that face coverings are optional on domestic flights. (Washington Post)
European airlines are weighing up their mask requirements on flights to the U.S. Air France and Lufthansa still require masks; British Airways and KLM say it depends on destination. (Wall Street Journal)
New York subway still requiring masks, DC Metro makes them optional. (The Hill)
Uber drops mask requirements for drivers, passengers. (CNBC)
President Biden has told former President Obama that he is planning to run for reelection in 2024, two sources tell The Hill. The admission to Obama is the latest indication that Biden is likely to run for a second term, something the president has spoken about publicly. “[Biden] wants to run and he’s clearly letting everyone know,” said one of the two sources familiar with the conversations between Obama and Biden. (The Hill)
Republicans favored to take control of Congress: A new Politico forecast of the 2022 midterm elections finds the House “likely” to flip to Republicans and the Senate “leans” to Republicans. (Political Wire, Politico)
Economy
The IMF cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, saying the economic hit from Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine will “propagate far and wide.” The IMF is now projecting a 3.6% GDP rate for the global economy this year and for 2023. This represents a 0.8 and 0.2 percentage point drop, respectively, from its forecasts published back in January. (CNBC)
Fed tightening sends US ‘real yields’ to brink of positive territory: US inflation-adjusted bond yields are on the verge of turning positive for the first time since March 2020 in a surge that is heaping further pressure on riskier corners of financial markets. So-called 10-year real Treasury yields have soared more than 1 percentage point since early March, hitting a high of minus 0.04% today, in a sign bond payouts are coming close to exceeding medium-term inflation expectations. (Financial Times)
Investors check back into the hotel market as travel picks up. First-quarter sales of hotels exceeded $12.5 billion, the highest total for the period since 2016. (Wall Street Journal)
Following a hiring and funding boom in 2021, technology startups have started to lay off workers to conserve cash. In the past month alone, more than 2,000 employees have lost their jobs at half a dozen startups, including delivery company Gopuff and e-commerce software firm Fast, according to an analysis by The Information. More cuts are likely to come. Venture capitalists, concerned that startups won’t be able to fundraise as readily as they did last year, say they have been pushing companies to reduce head count or slow hiring and potentially raise money at lower valuations. And professionals whose business booms when times get tough are seeing a rise in demand. (The Information)
Brexit friction pushes UK companies to set up Dutch trade hubs: An influx of British-based companies to the Netherlands has swelled as they struggle with the disruption of a customs border across the North Sea. More than 90 investors have built or rented distribution space since 2017, half of them in 2021, according to government agency Invest in Holland. (Financial Times)
Technology
Streamers are starting to come around on Madison Avenue. With the pandemic-induced surge of subscriptions showing signs of waning, major media and tech streaming companies are beginning to get bullish on advertising. To reach more people — including those made cost-sensitive by high inflation and subscription overload — streamers are offering a deal: exposure to ads in exchange for lower prices. Last week, Amazon doubled down on its free, advertising-supported streaming service, renaming it Freevee from IMDb TV and announcing plans to expand its programming budget. HBO Max began showing ads over the summer and, since January, has had the same number of people subscribe to the commercial version as to its ad-free tier. But the re-evaluation has been even more surprising at Netflix and Disney. (New York Times)
Netflix is expected to report slowing subscriber growth to start 2022 as the streaming giant faces questions about its ability to attract new users amid a return to prepandemic conditions and greater competition. Investors will be combing for clues in Netflix’s 1Q22 earnings results, which are set to be released today. (Wall Street Journal)
Elon Musk talks Twitter, Tesla and how his brain works — live at TED2022: In this unedited conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Elon Musk — the head of Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink and The Boring Company — digs into the recent news around his bid to purchase Twitter and gets honest about the biggest regret of his career, how his brain works, the future he envisions for the world and a lot more. (Recorded at TED2022 on April 14, 2022) This live interview includes an excerpt from another exclusive, extended conversation recorded a few days earlier at Tesla's Texas Gigafactory. (TED Talks)
To unlock its vast potential, Twitter should go private and split into two companies: one for the service and social graph and one for its apps and ad business. (Stratechery)
Smart Links
Elite US law firms promote more associates to salaried partner. (Financial Times)
100,000 millionaires pay 40% of California income taxes. (Los Angeles Times)
Biggest CEO pay package so far? $835 million to ad-tech firm Trade Desk chief Jeff Green. (Wall Street Journal)
Amazon to conduct racial-equity audit led by former Attorney General Loretta Lynch. (CNBC)
Chipotle launches a $50 million venture capital fund. (Axios)