The World
The Supreme Court opened its new term today — one that could end Chief Justice Robert’s dominant role — with its future uncertain and the unwelcome prospect of deciding a divisive presidential election on the horizon. The possible addition of Judge Amy Coney Barrett could create “the Trump court,” pushing it rightward, and cases on the Affordable Care Act and religious objections to gay rights could offer early clues. With Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat on the bench still draped in black crepe, the eight remaining justices will gather via teleconference. (New York Times, Washington Post)
A stumbling economic recovery is signaling the need for more help. The economy still has about 11 million fewer jobs now than pre-pandemic — and the number of permanent job losers among the unemployed has more than doubled in the last six months, the fastest pace of increase on record. Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson: “We see no reason to expect this trend to change. The economic recovery is the conjoined twin of the virus story, and U.S. cases and hospitalizations are rising.” Meanwhile, major U.S. technology stocks look vulnerable to a corporate-tax increase that might result from a Democratic sweep in November. Globally, the IMF is abandoning public debt concerns and calls on governments to invest, arguing there has rarely been a better time to increase public investment. (Finance 202, Wall Street Journal, CNN, Financial Times)
Leaked documents reveal Exxon's secret projections for higher carbon emissions, even as other oil giants cut back: Exxon Mobil has been planning to increase annual carbon-dioxide emissions by as much as the output of the entire nation of Greece, an analysis of internal documents reviewed by Bloomberg shows, setting one of the largest corporate emitters against international efforts to slow the pace of warming. Exxon’s own assessment of its $210 billion investment strategy shows yearly emissions rising 17% by 2025, according to the internal documents. (Bloomberg)
Toyota and Nissan are demanding that the British government cover additional tariffs that could arise if the country cannot conclude a free-trade agreement with the European Union. In the U.S., Southwest Airlines cut 90,000 flights in November and December as holiday travel demand falters. (Nikkei Asian Review, Dallas Morning News)
The W.H.O. reports 10% of world population may have been infected with the coronavirus, more than 20 times higher than the official count, warning that the “vast majority of the world remains at risk.” Paris raised the city's alert to maximum and will shut all bars, while Italy is set to impose new curbs amid a Covid-19 resurgence. The UK is scrambling to find thousands of potentially infectious people who weren’t told to isolate because of a contact-tracing system blunder. The U.S. hit its highest daily rate in 2 months, as 9 states reported record increases over the last seven days, mostly in the upper Midwest and West where chilly weather is forcing more activities indoors. (Associated Press, BBC News, Reuters, The Times, CNN, Reuters-2)
Tens of thousands of protesters marched on the main prison in Minsk, demanding the release of scores of people as Olympian basketball star Yelena Leuchanka was arrested. Meanwhile, dozens are missing after the French Riviera was hit by its “worst ever” floods. (The Times, The Times-2)
U.S. registered voters say the economy is the most important issue of 16 that may potentially affect their choice for president. Nearly nine in 10 registered voters consider the presidential candidates' positions on the economy "extremely" (44%) or "very" (45%) important to their vote. At least three-quarters of voters consider six other issues to be important to their vote choice -- terrorism and national security (83%), education (82%), healthcare (80%), crime (79%), the response to the coronavirus (77%), and race relations (76%). (Gallup)
Polls: VP Biden is ahead of President Trump among registered voters 53%-39% following the debate — up from his 8-point lead in the previous NBC News/WSJ poll before the debate. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania and Florida, Biden maintained leads in the two largest battleground states: Biden led 49%-42% among likely voters in Pennsylvania and 47%-42% in Florida, in NYT/Siena surveys. Separately, Reuters/Ipsos has Biden leading 51%-41% — and reports that 65% of Americans, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans agreed that “if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected.” (NBC News/WSJ poll, New York Times/Siena College surveys, Reuters/Ipsos poll)
Economy
At the end of 2019, dry powder globally stood at $2.5 trillion across all fund types, in part due to aggressive fundraising because of recession fears. Fundraising, it turned out, wasn’t particularly challenging. Deploying it, however, was: Deal pace slowed as competition for quality deals intensified. The pandemic has magnified this challenge. (BDO Survey)
Provider executives are bracing for a shift in payer mix over the next 12 months, as about 70% of CFOs and revenue cycle executives expect an increase of Medicaid and self-pay patients and a decrease of commercially insured patients as unemployment remains high. (HealthcareDive)
One of Britain’s biggest institutional investors told the 30 or more FTSE 100 companies with all-white boards that it will vote against them unless they hire an ethnic-minority director in the next 15 months. Legal & General, which manages more than £1.2 trillion of assets on behalf of pension funds and other clients, issued the ultimatum in the past days. (The Times)
The biggest misunderstandings of Social-Impact Investing and ESG: Socially responsible investing is liberal investing; 2. Socially responsible people shouldn’t separate their values from their investments; 3. Socially responsible investments yield higher returns than conventional investments. Socially responsible investments yield lower returns than conventional investments; 4. Socially responsible investors are unwilling to sacrifice returns for their values; 5. Socially responsible investors do good for others by divesting stocks of companies inconsistent with their values. (Wall Street Journal)
Technology
Companies with digitally savvy leaders and boards far outperform their peers: The 7% of large companies that have more than 50% of their top management teams being digitally savvy, have more than 48% better market valuations and revenue growth plus 16% higher profit. (Forbes)
The CEOs of Facebook, Google and Twitter agreed to testify before the Senate Commerce Committee on Oct. 28, less than a week before the election. Facebook says a government breakup of Instagram and WhatsApp would be a “complete nonstarter,” defy established law, cost billions of dollars and harm consumers. The company’s 14-page document offers a preview of its defense as federal antitrust enforcers and Congress continue to pursue investigations. (Politico, Wall Street Journal)
Airbnb is aiming to raise around $3 billion in its upcoming IPO, taking advantage of the unexpectedly sharp recovery in its business. Meanwhile, the company is piloting an information-sharing platform in 15 cities that it says will help local leaders monitor its local effects. (Reuters, CityLab)
In U.S.-China tech feud, Taiwan feels the heat from both sides: The island’s biggest chip maker has been a coveted partner to both battling giants. But rising nationalism is making it harder to keep the middle ground. Taiwanese chip companies — including the industry’s leading light, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which owns the Tainan plant — in a tough spot. They are forced to heed the dictates of American tech policy. Yet they can scarcely ignore the fact that so many of their customers and their customers’ customers are in China, where the Communist government is also threatening Taiwan with ever bolder displays of military force. China has for decades claimed the self-governing democracy as part of its territory.
In the high-stakes tech fight, TSMC had been playing Finland: a sometime friend to both feuding giants. But that is not the way the tech world works anymore. (New York Times)
NBCUniversal News Group isn’t satisfied with MSNBC’s heavy reliance on politics—and you can see why. CNN and Fox News got a ratings bump this spring when there was a tsunami of news, including the escalating Covid-19 crisis and nationwide protests against police brutality, but the same didn’t happen at MSNBC. Its overall viewership barely grew in 2Q20, and the network lost viewers in the key demographic for advertisers. (Wall Street Journal)
Smart Links
A new cold war: Trump, Xi and the escalating US-China confrontation. (Financial Times)
Americans say they’re drinking alcohol 14% more often in the pandemic. (Washington Post, JAMA)
What Apple and Netflix understand about optimal subscription pricing. (Marker)
45,000 to lose their jobs as Cineworld and Regal will close UK and US cinemas. (SkyNews)
U.S. audio listening up 8% in 2020. (PodNews)
Restaurants prolong outdoor dining with igloos and heaters. (Wall Street Journal)