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The World
Across the U.S., France, Germany and U.K., significant shares believe their economic system needs either major changes or a complete overhaul. When asked about various economic interventions the government could undertake, publics generally voice high levels of support for each potential program. The idea of government-sponsored job and skills training for workers garners the highest shares. Sizable shares also believe it is very important to implement policies targeted at helping those struggling financially, building more public housing, and increasing government benefits to the poor. Likewise, policies aimed at redistribution – raising taxes on the rich and providing a universal basic income – are very important priorities for at least three-in-ten. (Pew Research Center)
President Biden will seek new taxes on the rich, including a near doubling of the capital gains tax — to as high as 39.6% from the current 20% — for people earning more than $1 million a year, to pay for the next phase in his $4 trillion plan to reshape the American economy. Biden will also propose raising the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 37%, the level it was cut to by Trump’s 2017 tax overhaul. (New York Times)
Coupled with a surtax on investment income for the wealthy introduced at the time of Obama’s health reform, this would bring the total capital gains tax rate for the richest Americans to 43.4%. The rates would hit private equity and hedge fund managers by effectively eliminating the preferential tax treatment of their profits — or “carried interest.” (Financial Times)
Stocks fell on worries about capital gains taxes. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 declined. (Wall Street Journal)
President Biden announced America would aim to cut its greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, while the U.S. and EU are both now vowing to get roughly halfway to zero by 2030 — on the way to net zero emissions by 2050 — they account for only one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. Many lower-income countries, including China and India, still expect their emissions to either plateau or keep rising over the next decade. (New York Times)
India and China offer no new commitments, but Xi Jinping pledges to ‘strictly control’ coal-fired power plants. (South China Morning Post)
Japan pledges 46% greenhouse gas emissions cut by 2030 from 2013 levels, a sharp upgrade from its 2015 goal of a 26% cut. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to slash Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% over the next 9 years. (Japan Times, Global News)
Far fewer Americans today than in the 1980s and 1990s think of themselves as environmentalists, with the historical high of 78% measured in 1991. Today 41% of Americans identify themselves as "environmentalists," including 22% who say they are "strong environmentalists."(Gallup)
Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga wants to make a decision as soon as today on whether to declare a state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and other areas, and ramp up restrictions to contain a surge in coronavirus cases just three months before the start of the delayed Olympics. (Japan Times)
World health stumbles under Covid burden: Campaigns to quash tuberculosis (TB), measles and polio have all been set back by the need to divert medical resources to Covid-19. Data suggest that the pandemic’s knock-on effects could be larger than those caused by Covid-19 itself — and will linger long after the pandemic has ended. (Nature)
California’s coronavirus case rate is now the lowest in the continental U.S., following the state’s devastating fall and winter surge. (Los Angeles Times)
An analysis of 63 million medical records by data scientists shows that while reinfection is possible, it is rare. Out of about 400,000 people with positive tests for the coronavirus, only 0.4 percent tested positive twice in a period more than 90 days apart. (Washington Post)
Russia’s defense minister ordered tens of thousands of troops recently deployed close to the border with Ukraine to return to their bases. Moscow had moved as many as 100,000 troops, alongside tanks, military aircraft and naval ships, to its border with Ukraine over recent weeks. (Financial Times)
The number of scientists who emigrate from Russia every year has increased five-fold since President Putin returned to the presidency in 2012, the country’s Academy of Sciences has said. The number of emigrating researchers had risen from 14,000 in 2012 to 70,000 last year; the trend started with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (The Times)
Germany’s business elite favors Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel after a federal election in September, an opinion poll showed. (Reuters)
Women’s Covid job crisis was more predictable than we thought: Researchers found that of mothers in different-sex relationships who shouldered 80-100% of the care of young children, one in two voluntarily exited the workforce or reduced their paid working hours. Among mothers whose male partners did 40-60% of caregiving, the probability that they left the workforce or cut their hours was 15%, similar to father’s 11%. The authors say that the ability to work from home during the pandemic seemed to increase father engagement. At the same time, the share of fathers who shifted to working from home didn’t match the uptick in domestic contribution because “remote work is not necessarily flexible work.” (Fortune)
Economy
Once crippled by the pandemic, airlines see a fast recovery coming. As demand for tickets recovers, airlines are calling back workers, adding flights and planning for a summer they say could be normal. The nation’s 11 largest airlines are planning to offer nearly as many seats this July as they did in July 2019. (New York Times)
A key measure of the perceived risk in low-rated corporate bonds is hovering around its lowest level in more than a decade, highlighting investors’ mounting confidence in the economic outlook. The average extra yield investors demand to hold speculative-grade corporate bonds over U.S. Treasurys dropped below 3 percentage points this month to as low as 2.90 percentage points for the first time since 2007. (Wall Street Journal)
Wells Fargo plans to shift is Asian hub from HK to Singapore. The move comes amid cost-cutting drive and geopolitical tensions in the region. (Financial Times)
This could be a big year for cybersecurity IPOs: After a slow 2020, it looks like 2021 could be a big year for cybersecurity IPOs. U.K.-based Darktrace will likely be first big debut out of the gate, with plans to list on the London Stock Exchange. Other names include endpoint security providers SentinelOne and Tanium, along with awareness training platform KnowBe4. (Crunchbase)
Insurers want to put more money into private equity this year while scaling back on hedge funds, a survey by Goldman Sachs Asset Management showed. 38% of respondents plan to increase their allocation to private equity and 23% to maintain existing positions, with only 1% planning to reduce. The remainder of respondents don’t invest in private equity. (Reuters)
Highlights from McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review: (Axios, McKinsey)
Global private market fundraising fell 21% in 2020, but the number of active private market managers has now surpassed the number of active hedge fund managers.
One exception was health care venture capital, which hit new fundraising records.
Median performance of private equity funds raised between 2007-2017 outperformed top-quartile funds in private debt, natural resources or infrastructure (net of fees).
Global VC funds raised 2007-2017 have outperformed global buyout funds, on a pooled IRR basis.
Technology
Jaguar Land Rover suspended production at two of its three car manufacturing sites as a worldwide shortage of computer chips forces the global automotive industry to slam on the brakes. (The Times)
Apple will expand its advertising business, just as it brings in new privacy rules for iPhones that are likely to cripple the ads offered by its rivals, including Facebook. The iPhone maker already sells search ads for its App Store that allow developers to pay for the top result. In searches for “Twitter”, for example, the first result is currently TikTok. Apple now plans to add a second advertising slot, in the “suggested” apps section in its App Store search page. This new slot will be rolled out by the end of the month, according to one of the people, and will allow advertisers to promote their apps across the whole network, rather than in response to specific searches. (Financial Times)
Facebook says there are 2B+ users each month watching videos eligible for in-stream ads and is starting a test of targeting by topic for in-stream video ads. (TechCrunch)
Snap’s stock rose as much as 6% in after-hours trading after reporting 1Q21 results, in which it beat Wall Street’s expectations on earnings, revenue and user growth — with revenue of $770M, up 66% YoY. (CNBC)
Netflix, Disney and Amazon’s streaming wars heat up overseas: With U.S. market saturated, companies are slowing Hollywood exports and spending billions of dollars to make international content. Meanwhile, HBO Max’s US subscriber growth beats Netflix in 1Q21, as WarnerMedia’s streaming service aims to take on global leader with its extensive film and TV catalogue. (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times)
Online education growth continues to explode: Udemy has become one of the best-funded companies in edtech, having raised another $80 million at the end of 2020 bringing its total raised to nearly $300 million. MasterClass co-founder’s Outlier raised $30M for affordable, virtual college courses (EdSurge, TechCrunch)
Smart Links
Tesla’s Autopilot is ‘easily’ tricked into working without anyone in the driver’s seat. (The Verge)
iPhone 12 models accounted for 61% of US iPhone sales in fiscal Q2 2021. (9to5Mac)
Verizon unveils workforce re-skilling pilot with colleges. (EdScoop)
Perseverance makes breathable oxygen on Mars. (MIT Technology Review)
CIA estimates Taiwan's fertility rate to be world's lowest. (Kyodo News)
Metrics Matter: Five CFOs reveal the numbers they are tracking. (CFO)
Weekend science: How many bubbles are in a glass of beer? (American Chemical Society)
Live Events
Today, 10:30 am ET: Education Now: Innovations in Global Education. What are the pressing international challenges that educators and societies face — and where are the opportunities for innovation, collaboration, discovery, and meaningful engagement on real-world problems? (Harvard Graduate School of Education: Register)
Today, 12-5:30 pm ET: Climate Change, Intelligence, and Global Security. Headlined by John Kerry, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, the conference will directly follow the April 22/23 Earth Day Leaders Climate Summit, and will emphasize the critical need for international cooperation and global leadership to collectively address the security threats posed by the climate crisis. (Harvard Kennedy School: Register)