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The World
The EU is drawing up contingencies in case Ukraine crisis hits energy supplies, examining how to shield consumers as part of plans to protect Europe’s households, businesses and borders from the fallout from a Russian military escalation in Ukraine. Diplomats told the Financial Times that the EU is discussing contingency measures to deal with risks from surging gas prices, a possible migratory crisis and cyber security threats if Russia invades Ukraine. (Financial Times)
French president Emmanuel Macron signaled he will recognize Russian security concerns without abandoning support for Ukraine’s sovereignty when he meets Vladimir Putin in Moscow today in the latest western attempt to persuade the Russian leader to “de-escalate” the crisis. Macron, who has already spoken to Putin by phone three times in the past 10 days, outlined what he called a “realistic” approach to the threat of war as more than 100,000 Russian troops mass on Ukraine’s borders. “Russia’s geopolitical aim today is obviously not Ukraine but the clarification of the rules of how Moscow lives with Nato and the EU,” Macron said. (Financial Times, Le Journal du Dimanche)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is making his first visit to Washington since taking office Dec. 8 and will meet President Biden at the White House today. Meanwhile, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said extra troops could be deployed to Lithuania and defended Berlin's decision to not supply weapons to Ukraine. (Washington Post, Deutsche Welle)
Which European countries depend on Russian gas? Germany imports around half of its gas from Russia, while France only obtains a quarter of its supply from Russia. Italy would also be among the most impacted at a 46% reliance on Russian gas. The UK is in a different position, drawing half of its gas supply from domestic sources and importing mostly from Norway and also Qatar. Spain’s biggest trade partners are Algeria and the U.S. (Statista)
The Biden administration is preparing to unveil its first broad economic strategy for the Asia-Pacific region, a move awaited by U.S. allies and American business groups that are uneasy about China’s expanding influence in the region. With the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the U.S. aims to work more closely with friendly nations on issues including digital trade, supply chains and green technology. The framework is aimed at filling the hole in U.S. Asia strategy left by its 2017 departure from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a robust trade agreement the U.S. had helped to design as a counterweight to China. While details of the plan have yet to be released, the framework isn’t expected to try to return the U.S. to the TPP. (Wall Street Journal)
Ottawa mayor Jim Watson declared a state of emergency to deal with trucking blockade: ‘We have to get our city back,’ Watson said, adding authorities were “outnumbered” and are “losing this battle” against hundreds and sometimes thousands of protesters, many in big-rig trucks. who disrupted the capital city and other locales across Canada for a 10th day. The "Freedom Convoy" began as a movement against a Canadian vaccine requirement for cross-border truckers but has turned into a rallying point against public health measures and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government. (Washington Post, Reuters)
NBC Sports says ~16M viewers watched the 2022 Beijing Olympics opening ceremony across broadcast and streaming in the US, down 43% from 2018 and an all-time low. (Variety)
China was accused of ignoring a hockey player's human rights as isolation complaints grow: Just two days into the Olympics, organizers are facing a litany of complaints from athletes and countries on multiple fronts. The Swedes have suggested that the conditions in the mountains are perilously cold. A Polish skater says she was living in fear in a Beijing isolation ward and has “cried until I have no more tears.” The Finns have claimed an ice hockey player is being kept in Covid quarantine for no reason. A growing number of athletes are now expressing frustration and anguish with other aspects of their Winter Olympic experience. (Reuters, The Guardian)
Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai has denied she ever accused anyone of sexual assault, adding that she herself had deleted her social media post in November that had appeared to make such a claim. In an interview with French newspaper L'Equipe at a hotel in Beijing where she was accompanied by a China IOC official, Peng said: "I never said anyone had sexually assaulted me in any way." Peng also said she had met with IOC President Thomas Bach for dinner on Saturday and discussed her future. The IOC confirmed the meeting had taken place and said Peng would attend several Olympics events. She also plans to travel to Europe after the pandemic and visit the IOC headquarters in Switzerland, it added. (Reuters, L’Equipe)
It was Throwback Sunday on CNN, as two senators from opposing parties appeared together on “State of the Union” with Jake Tapper and spoke like reasonable adults. Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski — who are actual, real-life friends, as we chronicled in Playbook Deep Dive last year — talked about how they got the bipartisan infrastructure deal passed, and their ongoing work to overhaul the Electoral Count Act — which Manchin said will “absolutely” pass. (Also: Manchin endorsed Murkowski for re-election, and Murkowski said she will back Manchin if he runs again in 2024.) (Politico)
In The Wall Street Journal’s 14th annual ranking of nine U.S. airlines by operational performance, Delta Air Lines Inc. reclaimed the top spot. JetBlue Airways Corp. finished last. Delta took the top spot in five of seven categories, notably its cancellation rate. JetBlue ranked last overall, down from seventh in 2020, in part due to its delays and below-average performance in on-time arrivals. Of JetBlue’s approximately 262,800 completed flights, 14.3% were delayed 45 minutes or longer. Its on-time arrival percentage was 69.9%, second-worst in that category, behind Allegiant Travel Co. (Wall Street Journal)
Economy
Michael Lewis Revisits ‘Liar’s Poker’: “I vividly thought that I was trying to describe Brigadoon. It could never survive. They were willing to pay me probably millions of dollars, but certainly hundreds of thousands, to dish out financial advice when I certainly didn’t know what you should be doing with your money. I just thought, this is impossible. It felt like the end of an era. Michael Milken was going to jail. It was like one thing after another. Society is going to get its arms around Wall Street. And this financialization business is going to stop or be slowed. I was wrong about that.” (DealBook)
The US government bond market is signaling that the Fed will be able to tame inflation in coming years without snuffing out growth in the world’s biggest economy. Treasury yields jumped last week after a much stronger than expected US jobs report, as investors bet that strength in the labour market would give the Fed further impetus to tighten monetary policy as it sought to rein in the most intense consumer price growth in almost 40 years. Despite the upbeat figures on the labour market, which pointed to rising wage pressure, expectations for future inflation barely budged. (Financial Times)
Turkey's inflation soars to two-decade high of almost 49%. (CNN)
Bitcoin hit its highest in two weeks on Saturday, extending the previous session's strong gains as cryptocurrencies basked in a recovery in risk appetite and a rally in stock markets. The world's largest cryptocurrency hit $41,983, taking gains from Thursday's lows to nearly 16%, and marking a 27% rise from the year's low of $32,950.72 on Jan. 24. (Reuters)
Private equity invaded sports in 2021 with nearly $2 billion in deals, and the NBA was in high demand. Investors flocked to the NBA to provide growth capital to teams and PitchBook private equity analyst Wylie Fernyhough projected more deals in 2022. “NBA teams are trading at more expensive valuation because they are expecting to grow more over the next decade or so,” Fernyhough said. “You just have to make sure it’s done at the right price.” (CNBC)
Businesses are desperate to find and keep workers. A tight job market is forcing companies to keep workers now that hiring new ones has become costlier and more difficult: ‘Businesses are hoarding labor.’ (Washington Post)
Employers from McDonald’s to home builder PulteGroup said staffing pressures caused by hiring challenges and surging Covid-19 cases suppressed growth or cut into operations in 4Q21. The rapid increase in cases has disrupted operations at a number of manufacturers, and some companies continue to experience staffing shortages. Nearly 8.8 million workers, or about 6% of people on U.S. payrolls, were absent from work in the first 10 days of January because they were sick or caring for someone who was sick, according to census data. The absences, from that period and earlier in the Omicron surge, ate into companies’ ability to fill orders, maintain regular business hours and meet growing demand. (Wall Street Journal)
Technology
Ford Motor is cutting production this week of several key products due to an ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips. The automaker confirmed production downtime next week for the Ford Bronco and Explorer SUVs; the Ford F-150 and Ranger pickups; the Ford Mustang Mach-E electric crossover; and the Lincoln Aviator SUV at plants in Michigan, Illinois, Missouri and Mexico due to the parts shortage. (CNBC)
The Washington State Department of Licensing said over 250,000 licensed professionals may have had personal data exposed, including SSNs, in a database breach. (Seattle Times)
Mapping the celebrity NFT complex: Many celebrities promoting NFTs, like Paris Hilton and Jimmy Fallon, are either represented by, or have links to, OpenSea investor Creative Artists Agency. (Read Max)
Recent data from Russell Reynolds Associates found that Black tech professionals are switching companies more frequently. They’re also feeling less connected to their employer. Here are the highlights from the survey of about 400 tech professionals: (Protocol)
Black tech workers were found to switch companies every 3.5 years on average in order to advance in their careers. In comparison, non-Black tech workers switched companies every 5.1 years on average.
Among tech workers who are earlier in their careers with 10 years or less of tech experience, Black employees spend considerably less time at an organization. Black tech workers’ tenure at a company is about two years, while non-Black tech workers stay at a company for about 4.5 years on average.
On average, a Black tech worker with 10 years or less of tech experience said they’ve worked at 4.8 companies. Non-Black tech workers with the same amount of experience report that they’ve worked at 2.7 companies on average.
Live Events
Today, 12:30 pm ET: New Challenges to Transatlantic and European Security. (Register: Johns Hopkins)
Today, 1 pm ET: Prospects and Challenges in U.S.-Taiwan Economic Ties. U.S.-Taiwan economic ties are at a crossroads. In 2020, President Tsai Ing-wen lifted a ban on U.S. pork imports containing the feed additive ractopamine, removing a long-standing irritant in trade relations with the United States. Last summer, the Biden administration held bilateral talks with their Taiwan counterparts under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) for the first time since 2016. In more recent months, the two sides have begun additional discussions about strengthening the resilience of global supply chains, including the supply of one of Taiwan’s most strategically important exports: semiconductors. Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society will comment on these developments and the prospects for deepening U.S.-Taiwan economic relations in a moderated conversation with Hoover Research Fellow Kharis Templeman. (Register: Stanford University)
Smart Links
U.S. Labor Department says remote work in January increased to 15.4%, up from about 11% in December. (Protocol)
How the global chip shortage is boosting US manufacturing. (Cnet)
Russia's gas production is set for a record high in 2022, IEA says. (Bloomberg)
The race is on to build a casino in New York City. (Politico)
Apple aims to announce its 5G iPhone SE on March 8. (Bloomberg)