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The World
The Supreme Court “seems a bit quieter than in recent years, as the justices begin a new term.” While there are major cases as always, “nothing yet seems on par with conservative-driven decisions overturning Roe v. Wade’s right to an abortion and expanding gun rights in June 2022, then ending affirmative action in higher education and killing the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan last June.” (Associated Press)
Key cases on the docket include one involving whether a law banning those subject to domestic violence-related restraining orders from owning firearms violates the Second Amendment, whether local politician can block constituents on social media, and the constitutionality of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. (Axios)
“Recent history suggests that the court’s six Republican appointees will continue to move the law to the right. The main questions are how far, how fast and what impact the questions swirling around the justices’ ethical standards will have on their judicial work and personal relationships.” (New York Times)
“After two years of transformative decisions on abortion, gun rights and affirmative action, the Supreme Court is about to kick off a term where the justices are likely to spend much of their time resolving nagging questions created by their prior rulings.” (Politico)
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office confirmed late Sunday that he plans to appoint Emily’s List president Laphonza Butler to fill the seat held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who died last week at age 90. The interim appointment will extend until at least November 2024. Feinstein had planned to step down at the end of her term, in January 2025. Three of California’s top Democrats — Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam B. Schiff — are in a contentious three-way primary contest for that seat, in what is likely to be the most expensive congressional contest in the nation next year. The appointment helps Democrats hold onto their narrow margin of control of the Senate. (Washington Post)
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) says he will try to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his post this week. Gaetz’s announcement came after McCarthy, “in a stunning reversal, steered around Republican opposition to a stopgap spending plan and turned to Democrats to help him push legislation through the House to avert a shutdown.” (New York Times)
To oust McCarthy, “Gaetz will likely need the vast majority of Democrats to vote with him, barring an unprecedented GOP uprising against McCarthy” — and “some Democrats are not on board.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries “has so far declined to weigh in on a motion to vacate, and some moderate Democrats who might be inclined to save McCarthy are keeping their powder dry for the moment.” (Axios)
“Former strongman Prime Minster Robert Fico returned to power on September 30 when he won parliamentary elections in Slovakia, defeating his liberal rivals by some margin. With almost all the votes counted, Fico's Smer-SD party took 23.3%, beating the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) party that garnered just below 18%.” Fico ruled Slovakia for much of the last decade “despite regular accusations that he had turned the country into a ‘Mafia state.’ After his resignation following the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak, he embraced extremist and far-right rhetoric to remain relevant.” (DW)
Fico “vowed during the campaign to ‘not send a single cartridge’ of ammunition to Ukraine if elected and staked out increasingly pro-Russian views, a position amplified by a galaxy of small but influential Moscow-friendly news media outlets in Slovakia and pro-Russian voices on social media.” (New York Times)
“Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in central Warsaw at a rally organised by opposition leader Donald Tusk, two weeks before a crucial election that will have major implications for the future political course of Poland and its role in Europe.” (Guardian)
Tusk said the goal of a million marchers has been reached, but “state-controlled television, which Tusk claims is a mouthpiece” for the ruling party, put the number at 100,000. (Financial Times)
Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu, who is “widely seen as pro-China, won a runoff election to be the next president of the Maldives, marking a significant loss for Indian influence in the archipelagic nation.” The vote in the Maldives “highlighted a bitter divide between pro-India and pro-China camps in Asia’s smallest country.” (Washington Post)
“Muizzu's victory, with 54% of the vote, is widely seen as a loss for New Delhi and a win for Beijing. … But while Muizzu is known as pro-China, South Asian diplomats based in the capital say that his style may lead to a balanced diplomatic tone rather than a strident one.” (Nikkei Asia)
Economy
Asia faces worst economic outlook in half a century, World Bank warns: The World Bank has cut its forecast for China’s growth next year and warned that east Asia’s developing economies are set to expand at one of the lowest rates in five decades, as US protectionism and rising levels of debt pose an economic drag. The gloomier 2024 forecasts from the bank underline the mounting concern over China’s slowdown and how it will spill into Asia. China’s policymakers have already set one of the lowest growth targets in decades for 2023, of about 5 per cent. It also downgraded its 2024 forecast for gross domestic product growth for developing economies in east Asia and the Pacific, which includes China, to 4.5 per cent, from a prediction in April of 4.8 per cent and trailing the 5 per cent rate expected this year. (Financial Times)
Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow: Household spending, the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth, remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. Economists and financial advisers say consumers putting short-term needs and goals above long-term ones is normal. Still, this moment is different, they say. (Wall Street Journal)
Severe Crash Is Coming for US Office Properties, Investors Say: Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. About two-thirds of the 919 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the US office market will only rebound after a severe collapse. An even greater majority says that US commercial real estate prices won’t hit bottom until the second half of 2024 or later. (Bloomberg)
Federal student loan payments resume this month “for more than 40 million Americans with the end of the pandemic pause. After a more than three-year break from payments, experts warn of a messy return to debt repayment for borrowers who collectively owe more than $1 trillion in student loans.” (Axios)
Economists “caution that the impact on households and the economy remains largely uncertain,” but retailers and lenders “are bracing for a hit.” Financial services firm Jefferies, which recently polled consumers on the impact, “is warning that ‘there could be a significant risk to consumer spending ahead,’ because of the resumption of student loan payments.” (CNBC)
Inflation is down, “yet Americans remain deeply unhappy about the economy, often citing inflation.” That is because “Americans in their everyday lives usually focus on the absolute price of the things they need and want,” and prices for many items “remain well above their levels just before or at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and aren’t likely to return to where they were.” (Wall Street Journal)
Technology
Venture capitalists are advising start-ups to put off IPOs until interest rates have plateaued, “after choppy debuts for Arm and Instacart damped hopes for a rush of new tech listings.” Instagram ended September below its September 19 listing price of $30 despite surging as much as 40% as trading began. “Turbulent trading conditions throughout September have frustrated Silicon Valley investors who had hoped the month’s listings would open the door to dozens more private tech companies going public.” (Financial Times)
Amazon customer service representatives “have been handling a wave of inquiries from customers who received suspicious and confusing email confirmations about gift card purchases they had not made.” Customers say they received “three consecutive emails, some Saturday night and others Sunday morning, thanking them for their purchases of Google Play, Mastercard and Hotels[dot]com gift cards, despite never having bought them.” Amazon customer is looking into the emails, but says accounts are safe and the messages can be ignored. (CNBC)
The road to a Nobel Prize “is growing ever longer, with almost half of laureates now waiting more than 20 years from making a Nobel-worthy discovery to receiving the prize. One analysis shows that the average time between publishing the work and receiving one of the science prizes has nearly doubled in the past 60 years.” (Nature)
This may be bad for them but good for science. A recent study found that winners of won a Nobel Prize or a MacArthur Fellowship may opt to literally rest on their laurels: the study “found that laureates of either prize had similar or decreased impact in their field.” Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, who led the study, said, “These awards do not seem to enhance the productivity of the scientists. If anything, it seems to have the opposite effect.” (New York Times)
Smart Links
Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon. (Bloomberg)
Employers are increasingly using data from badge systems to track how long employees are staying at the office. (Wall Street Journal)
Flush With Cash, Amtrak Embarks on Ambitious Makeover. (Wall Street Journal)
Rishi Sunak will not commit to tax cuts as fractious Tory conference starts. (FT)
The central Chinese city of Zhengzhou offers warnings about why China may struggle to overcome economic stagnation. (Axios)
Amtrak trains along the Gulf Coast are poised to return for the first time since Hurricane Katrina. (Washington Post)