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The World
The U.S. economy outlook has dimmed as the resurgence in coronavirus cases runs a high risk of halting the recovery, a Reuters poll of economists shows. Over 80% said the U.S. jobless rate would not return to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2023 at least. 75% felt Democratic control of the Senate and White House would yield a stronger near-term economic recovery. However, JPMorgan says a Trump win could spur U.S. stocks, dent Asia assets, and grow a trade-weighted dollar. Meanwhile, Congress left Washington until after the election without passing any new economic or health care relief measures. Stocks fell sharply, oil plunged over 4%, U.S. crude stockpiles rose, and Boeing said it will shrink its workforce further, almost doubling the planned cut to 19% of the workforce. However, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in September and inventories at retailers surged, sealing expectations for record 3Q20 economic growth. (Reuters, Bloomberg, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Seattle Times, Reuters)
A second food-stockpiling wave has arrived, with a 3,400% pantry surge from a year earlier in the three weeks through Oct. 13. (Bloomberg)
People recovering from Covid-19 may suffer significant brain function impacts, with the worst cases of the infection linked to mental decline equivalent to the brain aging by 10 years. Russia imposed a public mask mandate and called on its 85 regional governors to order restaurants and entertainment venues to close by 11 p.m. France is preparing for a second lockdown. Canada sees a Thanksgiving-related spike from celebrations the second Monday of October. In the U.S., travelers will face a $50 fine for not wearing a mask at Kennedy, La Guardia and Newark airports. Il Governor Pritzker banned indoor dining in Chicago, while LA health officials are concerned for new spreads following Dodgers and Lakers victory celebrations. Pfizer’s CEO said it will not deliver vaccine results by the end of this month. (Imperial College, Reuters, Washington Post, CTV News, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Associated Press)
South Korea joined Japan in pledging to make the country carbon-neutral by 2050, keeping in step with recent global commitments to tackle climate change. Meanwhile, China’s yuan trading outside the mainland surged to its highest level in 17 months. (Nikkei Asian Review, South China Morning Post)
Turkey President Tayyip Erdogan said that Western countries mocking Islam wanted to “relaunch the Crusades,” heightening a confrontation with France that have stirred anger in Muslim-majority countries. Erdogan said that standing against attacks on the Prophet was “an issue of honour for us,” suggesting Ankara may be digging in for a prolonged standoff. (Reuters)
The Texas Supreme Court ruled that Texas counties will be allowed only one drop-off location for mail-in ballots, issuing what is expected to be the final ruling in numerous lawsuits that challenged Gov. Abbott’s order. (Texas Tribune)
Only half of U.S. adults say universities that brought students back to campus made the right decision, while 48% say they did not. However, those views are deeply divided along party lines, with Republicans and those who lean to the Republican Party more than twice as likely as Democrats and Democratic leaners to say bringing students back was the right decision. (Pew Research Center)
Economy
Consumers are spending money as if the recession is over. But they are also paying down old debts and avoiding new ones in case the pandemic lasts a while. The dissonant behavior makes the economy’s underlying strength or weakness hard to discern, as millions of Americans lost jobs in the past seven months, yet average credit scores are at an all-time high. (Wall Street Journal)
Expedia Group, ViacomCBS, Airbnb, S&P, Cantor Fitzgerald, and others are partnering with Bright Horizons—a provider of childcare and early education, back-up care, and workplace education services—to offer free childcare to working parents so they can go vote. (Fast Company)
Startups focus on farmers as agtech funding soars amid the growing sustainable food supply chain. So far in 2020, venture investors have sunk $4.1 billion into 413 agriculture technology deals, on pace for a record-setting year, with startups working on everything from carbon-removing crackers to digitized grain silos. (Crunchbase)
Lenders are cracking down on mall owners who are behind on their mortgage. During the early months of the pandemic, lenders were willing to allow rent deferrals and offer other concessions to retail property owners. Now, as many landlords continue to struggle and miss payments, some banks and other lenders think it is time to start cracking down. (Wall Street Journal)
70% of the women who say the pandemic has negatively impacted their lives are particularly concerned about their ability to continue to progress at work. For the vast majority of the nearly 400 women who responded to Deloitte’s survey, it’s not that they don’t expect to have opportunities to advance. But as home responsibilities mount, 60% question whether they want to progress, given what they believe they will need to accomplish in order to move up. One factor: Almost half said they feel the pressure to constantly be available for work. (Fortune)
Airbnb said it plans to list its shares on the Nasdaq, but didn't provide additional information on its upcoming IPO. Expectations are that this could be the largest Nasdaq float since Facebook. (Axios)
U.S. CFOs are increasingly optimistic in their economic outlook and finances of their firms, predicting a strong rebound from the recession triggered by the pandemic. (Strategic CFO 360)
They expected conditions 12 months from now would be far better than today.
Over the next 12 months, 68% of CFOs polled forecast growth in revenues and 58% expect growth in profits at their firms.
Nearly half expect to increase cash and cash equivalents over that same period.
Some 40% say they are not planning to increase their capital expenditures.
Of those planning to increase or shift their investments, however, CFOs say their focus is likely to be toward digitization and Cloud initiatives (53%), followed by cybersecurity (47%) and financial automation (40%).
Technology
Facebook, Google, and Twitter’s CEOs are testifying before the Senate to defend the law that created social media and how they control content on their services. They will argue against rolling back Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which shields internet companies from lawsuits over user-generated posts. But the CEOs diverge on what Congress should do about Section 230. The lack of a unified front could weaken the tech companies’ ability to parry both political parties’ attacks. Meanwhile, Europe’s top antitrust enforcer Margrethe Vestager warned against pushing for the structural break up of tech companies during a debate around the future of internet regulation in the European Union. (The Information, TechCrunch, Protocol, The Information-2)
Apple is developing an alternative to Google search, as its ties to Google come under antitrust scrutiny. About half of Americans on both sides of the aisle back the Justice Department's antitrust lawsuit against Google, while fewer than a third oppose it. 48% said they strongly or somewhat support the DOJ's lawsuit. 32% strongly or somewhat oppose it. The numbers were consistent across both parties: 52% of Republicans support the suit vs. 49% of Democrats; 26% of Republicans opposed vs. 32% of Democrats. (Financial Times, Axios, Demand Progress & Data for Progress)
Apple’s iPhone 12 seems to have a secret reverse wireless charging feature, which could be used to charge future AirPods or Apple’s long rumored “AirTags” trackers. (The Verge)
Reddit will let most employees work remotely and is rethinking its comp structure to match: U.S. employees will now be paid the same, based on high-cost locations like NY or San Francisco, whether they work from those places or not. Reddit said it’s ‘reimagining’ its office space, without fixed desks and with ‘neighborhoods’ for teams to work together.” (Bloomberg, Source Code, Reddit)
Microsoft continues to shrug off any pandemic-related economic doldrums, as 3Q20 sales grew 12% to $37.2 billion while earnings per share jumped 32%. Sales of Office for consumers and businesses grew 13% and 9% respectively. Teams, Microsoft’s Slack rival, now has more than 115 million daily active users, up from 75 million in April. Sony raised its full-year forecast as gaming thrives under Covid: It expects net profit to grow 37% to $7.6bn; gaming sales up 22% and net profit doubles in 1H20. (The Information, Nikkei Asian Review)
Waymo and Daimler Trucks are partnering to build an autonomous version of the Freightliner Cascadia truck, bring self-driving semi-trucks to market. This is Waymo’s first deal in the freight business. The truck could drive itself without a human but only in pre-defined areas. It is expected to be available in the U.S. “in the coming years.” (TechCrunch)
Smart Links
Working from home could hit aerospace revenues; Raytheon hopes it will also cut costs. (Wall Street Journal)
Princeton University’s endowment rises to $26.6 billion. (Planet Princeton)
Heathrow loses slot to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle as Europe’s busiest airport. (The Times)
Joe Biden's private equity plan. (Axios)
The 15 Silicon Valley millionaires spending the most to beat Trump: $120 million over the last two years. (Recode)
Netflix is testing an audio-only mode; Audible adds 100,000 free podcasts to its app. (Source Code)
Jon Stewart to create new current affairs series for Apple. (Variety)
Dunkin’ sale poised to be second-largest restaurant deal ever. (Bloomberg)
The 2020 presidential and congressional elections are the most expensive in history. (Statista, OpenSecrets.org)