The World
Global coronavirus cases surpassed 18 million, with the pandemic now adding a million infections every four days. Meanwhile, the White House is considering unilateral moves amid its stalemate with Congress, as Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari suggested a 4-6 week shutdown. In Australia, increasing real interest rates and Victoria's lockdown — including large parts of Melbourne’s retail and manufacturing sectors for six weeks — will force the Reserve Bank to re-examine policy settings and its forecasts for the national economy. In Spain, deaths may be almost 50% higher than the official toll. (Bloomberg, Washington Post, Reuters, Sydney Morning News, El Pais)
73% of U.S. adults have an unfavorable view of China, up 26% since 2018. Since March alone, negative views have increased 7 points. 64% say China has done a bad job dealing with the coronavirus outbreak. 78% place a great deal or fair amount of the blame for the global spread on the Chinese government’s initial handling of the outbreak in Wuhan. Meanwhile, China factory activity expanded at fastest rate in 9 years, as manufacturing survey data beat expectations amid early signs of recovery in Japan and South Korea. Beijing suspended Hong Kong’s extradition treaty with New Zealand. And in the showdown between China and the West, HSBC has gotten caught in the middle. (Pew Research Center, Financial Times, South China Morning News, New York Times)
Anti-Kremlin protests entered their fourth week in eastern Russia. The long-running demonstrations are unprecedented in modern Russia and have made Mr. Putin appear either unwilling or unable to respond. (Financial Times)
Three Madison Avenue buildings are for sale in the biggest offering on Manhattan’s renowned shopping corridor in years — the first time this much Madison Avenue retail has been for sale in close to a decade, and a test case for how much the pandemic and recent rent slump have hurt prime retail space values. Meanwhile, retail rents are plummeting across NYC, as Lord & Taylor, Men’s Wearhouse file for bankruptcy. (Wall Street Journal, CNBC)
U.S. Postal Service workers say the new Postmaster General's cost-cutting measures have led to disruptions in mail delivery. The policies eliminate overtime, order carriers to leave mail behind to speed up workdays, and slash office hours, which — coupled with staffing shortages amid previous budget cuts and coronavirus absences — are causing extensive delivery delays. Meanwhile, Philadelphia neighborhoods are experiencing significant mail delays, with some residents going upwards of three weeks without packages and letters. (NPR, Philadelphia Inquirer)
Economy
Fitch cut its outlook on U.S. debt, warning that the rise in federal spending led to a deterioration in public finances. Meanwhile, U.S. long bond demand raises prospect of whole curve yielding below 1%, as U.S. junk bonds had their best month since 2011. Separately, investors are ramping up wagers on the falling dollar, believing the surge in coronavirus cases will hamper U.S. business activity and drive even more government spending. (Financial Times, Reuters, Technocodex, Wall Street Journal)
The Federal Reserve and other central banks are heading for a collision with shadow lenders, focusing on loosely regulated money market and hedge funds, mortgage originators and other entities. Already, some watchdogs have pointed to highly leveraged trades involving U.S. Treasuries as one source of the turmoil. (Bloomberg)
Regional differences in 1H20 deal performance and volume were dramatic. Based on share price performance, North America experienced the sharpest fall in M&A performance by some margin, as acquirers underperformed their regional index by –7.2%. In contrast, European buyers performed +10.2% above their regional index, the first time in two years that Europe recorded three consecutive quarters of positive performance. U.K. acquirers performed +16.9% above the index. Asia Pacific deal makers performed +3.1% for 1H20, though they were up 8.0 for 2Q20, the region’s first significant positive quarterly performance since late 2016. (Chief Executive)
PE firms are taking more minority stakes in companies and buying non-core businesses carved out from large conglomerates. Minority stakes represented 23% of total deals in 1H20, up from 11% last year. (Institutional Investor)
How to mainstream impact investing in Europe: Investors and policy makers who want to advance impact investing in Europe need to account for the field's different levels of maturity in national, subnational, and municipal markets — including 4 key lessons: (Stanford Social Innovation Review)
Mobilizing resources across major European regions requires regionally tailored policies and financial instruments.
Policies and instruments that have worked in individual countries, such as Solidarity Investment Funds in France, can provide templates for developing impact investing in other nations.
Networks and associations should share data and best practices so that less advanced countries can avoid starting their impact investing sector from scratch.
Regions as a whole need to integrate impact measurement and management into the tools used by major social institutions, including corporations, large investors, and public funders.
Technology
Google will invest $450 million in ADT for a 6.6% stake and work with the Florida-headquartered firm’s 20,000 technicians to sell and install the search giant’s Nest family of smart home products. Amazon owns Ring. (TechCrunch)
Some advertisers that left Facebook for July to protest its handling of hate speech say they are coming back, while the tech giant’s financial outlook suggested the boycott isn’t taking a major financial toll. Meanwhile, activists accuse Facebook of failing to deliver on their demands and promise further disruption. (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times)
Apple continues to be the #1 podcast app, accounting for 68.2% of mobile downloads. Spotify is at 8.3%, and Google Podcasts at just 1.3%. (PodNews)
What is Silicon Valley’s plan in India? Facebook and Google have poured billions into Reliance Jio to gain a foothold in world’s fastest-growing smartphone market. (Financial Times, Marker)
Smart Links
Little evidence exists that mass transit poses a risk of coronavirus outbreaks. (Scientific American)
Canary Wharf Group recalls staff to halt banking exodus. (The Telegraph)
How Tesla was lured to Austin. (Texas Monthly)
MLB draws strong TV ratings. (Wall Street Journal)
How Texas A&M plans to get 55,000 fans into Kyle Field. (Houston Chronicle)
Americans who mainly get news on social media are less engaged, less knowledgeable. (Pew Research Center)