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The World
Goldman Sachs economists raised their GDP growth expectations for the U.S. economy to 8% for 2021 in a note to clients last night. If Goldman's forecast is correct it would mark the largest economic expansion for the U.S. in a generation: "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note. "But we expect inflation dynamics to mirror those last cycle, and therefore expect this forecast to translate to only 2.1% core PCE inflation in 2023." (Axios)
President Joe Biden is eyeing Gene Sperling for a role to oversee the implementation of the administration’s coronavirus relief plan, according to two sources with knowledge of the plans. The White House could announce the role for Sperling as early as today. (Politico)
Only 75% of the House is confirmed as vaccinated against the coronavirus, fueling a debate about when the chamber can return to its normal rules of operation. The other 25% of members have either refused to get the vaccine, have not reported getting it at home or are avoiding it because of medical conditions. Congress has its own supply of the vaccine. (Axios)
A massive Facebook study on users’ doubt in vaccines is finding that a small group appears to play a big role in pushing the skepticism. The internal study finds a QAnon connection and that content that doesn’t break the rules may be causing ‘substantial’ harm. (Washington Post)
Authorities in Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Iceland have paused administering the AstraZeneca vaccine amid clotting concerns. Austria suspended its AstraZeneca rollout while authorities investigated the death of one person who had received a dose. AstraZeneca announced that a comprehensive review has found "no evidence" that its vaccine shows of an increased risk of blood clots. (Axios)
A new study suggests 3 feet, not 6 feet, is sufficient distance for school students, with mask-wearing and other safety measures kept in place. (New York Times)
Duke implemented a "stay-in-place" order for undergraduates, lasting until 9 a.m. on March 21. Classes will all be online during the order with very limited exceptions. (Duke Chronicle)
When the top leaders of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia met at a virtual summit, there was a clear message beneath the official statements: A new grouping of like-minded nations has arrived on the international stage. It was the first meeting of the top leaders of the four participant countries in the loose coalition known as the “Quad,” and a significant step toward cementing a partnership of democracies — and counterweight to China — that had once appeared more concept than reality. (Washington Post)
Britain has declared that China is now in “a state of ongoing non-compliance” with the 1984 Sino-British joint declaration, which was supposed to guarantee Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy after the territory returned to Beijing’s control in 1997. (Financial Times)
Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) took a hit, with early results showing that recent scandals and the mishandling of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout potentially damaged the party in two vital state elections. Elections in the German states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate were seen as the first major political test ahead of the general election in September, and the results may have caused CDU leaders to worry. (Deutsche Welle)
Security forces killed at least 22 anti-coup protesters in the poor, industrial Hlaingthaya suburb of Myanmar’s main city on Sunday after Chinese-financed factories were set ablaze there. A further 16 protesters were killed in other places, as well as one policeman, making it the bloodiest day since the Feb. 1 coup against elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi. (Reuters)
Hospitals lift curtain on prices, revealing giant swings in pricing by procedure: The eye-popping variations just demonstrate "the total insanity of American healthcare pricing," Niall Brennan, CEO of the payer-backed Health Care Cost Institute, said. For example: The price to replace a hip or knee in the U.S. can vary dramatically, even within a single hospital, new data show. At a Sutter hospital in San Francisco, a procedure can range from $22,865 to $101,571. It all depends on the patient's insurer. (Healthcare Dive)
A powerful, record-breaking winter storm plastered Colorado, Wyoming and western Nebraska with heavy snow and howling winds Sunday, generating whiteout conditions and bringing travel to a halt. The same storm was responsible for spawning tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle on Saturday, including two in the same place at the same time. In Denver, conditions became so bad Sunday afternoon that the National Weather Service issued an emergency alert urging residents to stay off roads. (Washington Post)
Economy
The value of mergers and acquisitions across the investment industry almost tripled last year, reaching its highest level since the global financial crisis, as intense competitive pressures spurred the latest wave of consolidation activity. Announced M&A deals involving asset and wealth managers rose from $13.6bn in 2019 to $38.9bn last year. (Financial Times)
Goldman CEO’s year of empty offices, island getaways and strife: In many ways, it should all be sunny at Goldman Sachs: Its Wall Street businesses are booming, the stock is on a tear and the bank finally put to rest the 1MDB scandal that dogged it for six years. Instead, the firm is riveted by palace intrigue over executive defections, bristling over the use of company jets for personal trips and debating how flexible the workplace will be after Covid subsides. (Bloomberg)
With reports suggesting the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating residential relocation out of California — a theory called “Cal Exodus” — a policy brief published by the California Policy Lab found that people are not leaving California at a rate significantly higher than in previous years. (Daily Californian)
Amsterdam: Europe’s surprise early winner as Brexit shakes up the City. The Dutch city has taken some business from London, but Frankfurt and Paris are better placed to take long-term advantage. (Financial Times)
Hong Kong could risk a brain drain in the next five years after a new survey found a quarter of the city’s university-educated under-35s were planning on leaving to work elsewhere. The study, which was conducted by one of the city’s biggest youth organizations, also showed that some 16% of those who wanted to leave the city for work said they had no intention of ever coming back, while another 12.6% said they would only consider returning after securing a foreign nationality. (South China Morning Post)
China’s industrial output grew 35.1% in January-February from a year ago, faster than the 7.3% gain in December, adding further momentum to a recovery that is set to underpin solid economic growth. (Reuters)
Technology
Stripe has become the most valuable private company Silicon Valley has produced, after investors struck a deal valuing the online payments processor at $95bn. Participants in Stripe’s latest financing, which raised $600m of new equity, include Ireland’s National Treasury Management Agency, Allianz, Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, AXA and Sequoia Capital. Founded in 2010 by Irish brothers Patrick and John Collison — now aged 32 and 30 — Stripe’s valuation has almost tripled in less than a year, surpassing those achieved by Facebook and Uber before they went public. (Financial Times)
Clubhouse says it won't require access to users' phone contacts anymore, announces an accelerator program for creators and will initially accept 20 participants. (The Verge)
Tech companies are turning their attention to statehouses across the country as a wave of local bills opens a new frontier in the push to limit Silicon Valley’s power. Arizona, Maryland and Virginia are among states where lawmakers are seeking to limit the power of tech companies like Google and Appleon a range of issues, from online privacy and digital advertisements to app-store fees. State policy proposals have bipartisan support from lawmakers who want to temper companies’ influence and financial clout, which have grown during the pandemic. (Wall Street Journal)
Quantum sensors could enable autonomous vehicles that can ‘see’ around corners, underwater navigation systems, early-warning systems for volcanic activity and earthquakes, and portable scanners that monitor a person’s brain activity during daily life. (Scientific American)
Smart Links
CNN targeting August And September for workforce to return to offices. (Deadline)
Going digital quickly is a priority for private equity. (Financial Times)
Twitter testing bigger photos in tweets, 4K image uploading. (iMore)
Hand sanitizer demand will stay ‘exponentially higher’ than 2019 levels, CEO of Purell parent says. (CNBC)
Why emergency online learning got low grades from many college students. (EdSurge)
When does cancer start? In some cases, decades before diagnosis. (Harvard Medical School)